Oh to be a fly on the wall when one asks the other to give him head.shoutinghorse wrote:First gay Muslim marriage in the UK .. Except it was a civil ceremony in a register office and no Muslims showed up.
The 'Not too Happy' couple
[youtube][/youtube]
In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
I'll get shouted down for defending the asshole, but the steelman of Carrier's argument is that people are already doing something very much like Bayesian calculations in their minds already, so you might as well put your cards on the table. I agree, and when approached by cooler heads like this guy(he didn't initially use Bayes, but did eventually say it was the optimal method), it results in neat little excel charts where you can play around with the probabilities, see what numbers you need to be willing to defend to get to certain conclusions. Then you can carry on arguing about what numbers are justifiable. Personally, I get migraines when people get into shouting matches over different conclusions when it's obvious they're not even using shared premises, so the idea of putting numbers on it all is very appealing.Kirbmarc wrote: Math based on what? Carrier briefly touches upon the problem of premises and the "garbage in, garbage out" issue of Bayes' Theorem, but offers no solution except "premises you can be fairly certain are true". But "premises you can be fairly certain are" are statements "about what's probable, without doing math". So Carrier is simply pushing the problem of validity to the premises you use as input in Bayes' Theorem. Once again the intellectually artillery seems to backfire.
Carrier's problem is being way too self-aggrandizing (shocker) when it comes to claims about what he's actually doing. He's solving epistemology!
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Oh! Oh! You have to read the Heina Dadabhoy exchange! Comedy gold.Billie from Ockham wrote:Is that documented? If so, that's pretty low.Matt Cavanaugh wrote:Lauren Lane once offered Dicky sex in exchange for a mere letter of recommendation. If she wants monetary donations, she's gonna need to sweeten the pot a bit.
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Actually, the main point of the Kahneman and Tversky research is that humans don't do Bayes in their heads, because, for example, we don't take base rates into account.
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
I'll read the emails tonight. Thanks. Gotta go.
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Acetaldehyde and acetate by the looks of it.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Consider the "very much like" to be overstating things then. The existence of the base rate fallacy just becomes one more argument for doing the extra work.Billie from Ockham wrote:Actually, the main point of the Kahneman and Tversky research is that humans don't do Bayes in their heads, because, for example, we don't take base rates into account.
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
I don't think we do Bayes in our heads any more than we actually perform calculus when we catch a ball.Billie from Ockham wrote:Actually, the main point of the Kahneman and Tversky research is that humans don't do Bayes in their heads, because, for example, we don't take base rates into account.
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
[youtube][/youtube]
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Meyers has a post up about bitching about YouTube's video recommend algorithm.
He of course pounds his little fists on the keyboard to type Thunderf00t's name.
https://preview.ibb.co/mz6Q2v/Screen_Sh ... _27_PM.png
The link goes to the Chrome addon, and it seems to be a YouTube variant of the BlockBot!! Here's a screenshot of the list of some blocked channels (like the BB, it has - per the author's admission - just been compiled off the top of his head). Hopefully there will be lulz incoming.
https://image.ibb.co/gVGshv/Screen_Shot ... _30_PM.png
He of course pounds his little fists on the keyboard to type Thunderf00t's name.
https://preview.ibb.co/mz6Q2v/Screen_Sh ... _27_PM.png
The link goes to the Chrome addon, and it seems to be a YouTube variant of the BlockBot!! Here's a screenshot of the list of some blocked channels (like the BB, it has - per the author's admission - just been compiled off the top of his head). Hopefully there will be lulz incoming.
https://image.ibb.co/gVGshv/Screen_Shot ... _30_PM.png
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
[youtube][/youtube]Shatterface wrote:I don't think we do Bayes in our heads any more than we actually perform calculus when we catch a ball.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
All of them finitely more successful than the old angry man on the internet.ConcentratedH2O, OM wrote:https://image.ibb.co/gVGshv/Screen_Shot ... _30_PM.png
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
I'm still amazed that these slipped below my radar...
(Clint nails it, the final part is cold as ice!)
[youtube][/youtube]
(Clint nails it, the final part is cold as ice!)
[youtube][/youtube]
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Apparently 1 in 4 Australians was born overseas. Ie in addition to the existing difficult "second" generationers.
The median house price in Sydney is 1.5million and a generation is now taking for granted that home ownership is an out of reach luxury.
High density housing is now the norm but our infrastructure projects are dysfunctional. And the roads aren't getting wider.
Our prev. home grown "culture" is seen as an embarrassing product of white history - to be terraformed or replaced with ....... something.
I would like to think all these are drivers of a clever plan.
But I don't think there actually is one.
I am despondent.
The median house price in Sydney is 1.5million and a generation is now taking for granted that home ownership is an out of reach luxury.
High density housing is now the norm but our infrastructure projects are dysfunctional. And the roads aren't getting wider.
Our prev. home grown "culture" is seen as an embarrassing product of white history - to be terraformed or replaced with ....... something.
I would like to think all these are drivers of a clever plan.
But I don't think there actually is one.
I am despondent.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Yep. Here's your x2. Best. Post. Evah!Bhurzum wrote:Shouldn't one of them be 6 years old?shoutinghorse wrote:First gay Muslim marriage in the UK ..
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Kirbmarc wrote:FYI, Nasheed used to run a pick-up artist website full of homophobic posts. Make of that what you will.jet_lagg wrote:This confirms it for me. Tariq Nasheed is a deep cover right wing troll.
[.img]http://i.imgur.com/CaVpxXN.png[/img]
[.img]http://i.imgur.com/15jSK4D.png[/img]
Karma? Poetic justice?
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Translating three-space to joint-space is non-linear equations, but I get your point and agree. We retrieve a stored posture and make adjustments, instead, in case you're wondering.Shatterface wrote:I don't think we do Bayes in our heads any more than we actually perform calculus when we catch a ball.Billie from Ockham wrote:Actually, the main point of the Kahneman and Tversky research is that humans don't do Bayes in their heads, because, for example, we don't take base rates into account.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
She's hot, for a guy.Matt Cavanaugh wrote:You hittin' on zir that soon?Billie from Ockham wrote: Note to self: don't have an orchid sent to Blaire White's hospital room as a get-well present after the upcoming surgery.
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Watching Newsnight tonight (lol) and they independently confirm the estimated death toll from Grenfell at around 80 people. There is no evidence it is any higher, although admit the figure could rise.
It has been fascinating watching the Left in the UK inflate this death toll figure well over 100, and in some cases, in the 2, 3, and 4 hundreds. Why they are obsessed with exaggerating the death toll, I don't know, but their behaviour has very much being like right wing conspiracy theorists. It must suit their agenda to believe several hundred died in Grenfell, rather than just 80, which to me, is still a large number of people to die.
There has been a lot of discussion in the UK whether it is right to "politicise" the tragedy. I think it can, but to some people, "politicise" means make up crazy conspiracy theories and suggest a massive cover-up, etc. Idiots.
It has been fascinating watching the Left in the UK inflate this death toll figure well over 100, and in some cases, in the 2, 3, and 4 hundreds. Why they are obsessed with exaggerating the death toll, I don't know, but their behaviour has very much being like right wing conspiracy theorists. It must suit their agenda to believe several hundred died in Grenfell, rather than just 80, which to me, is still a large number of people to die.
There has been a lot of discussion in the UK whether it is right to "politicise" the tragedy. I think it can, but to some people, "politicise" means make up crazy conspiracy theories and suggest a massive cover-up, etc. Idiots.
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
https://debutantbloggen.files.wordpress ... .gif?w=640Lsuoma wrote:Yep. Here's your x2. Best. Post. Evah!
Cheers, tit.
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Carrier's line-by-line response to Dadaboy's rejection was the high-point of my day.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
[youtube][/youtube]
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Cringe alert!.
A Social Justice Warrior band have released a "metal" song called "Good Night Alt-Right". They seem to copying Rage Against The Machine, while trying to "act hard". :)
[youtube][/youtube]
Wonder what our very own metal guru Phil, thinks?
A Social Justice Warrior band have released a "metal" song called "Good Night Alt-Right". They seem to copying Rage Against The Machine, while trying to "act hard". :)
[youtube][/youtube]
Wonder what our very own metal guru Phil, thinks?
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Yeah, it's odd isn't it? A few people insisting there were 40 odd people in one flat, because "ramadan" Did you see the interview with the girl blaming the fire brigade for letting the fire burn out, meaning the human remains will be almost impossible to identify? It's a mess alright, definitely becoming more than just a tragedy. Uncomfortable to see it politicised like this.CommanderTuvok wrote:Watching Newsnight tonight (lol) and they independently confirm the estimated death toll from Grenfell at around 80 people. There is no evidence it is any higher, although admit the figure could rise.
It has been fascinating watching the Left in the UK inflate this death toll figure well over 100, and in some cases, in the 2, 3, and 4 hundreds. Why they are obsessed with exaggerating the death toll, I don't know, but their behaviour has very much being like right wing conspiracy theorists. It must suit their agenda to believe several hundred died in Grenfell, rather than just 80, which to me, is still a large number of people to die.
There has been a lot of discussion in the UK whether it is right to "politicise" the tragedy. I think it can, but to some people, "politicise" means make up crazy conspiracy theories and suggest a massive cover-up, etc. Idiots.
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Jesus, that was fucking awful.CommanderTuvok wrote:Cringe alert!.
A Social Justice Warrior band have released a "metal" song called "Good Night Alt-Right". They seem to copying Rage Against The Machine, while trying to "act hard". :)
[youtube][youtube]
Wonder what our very own metal guru Phil, thinks?
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
ConcentratedH2O, OM wrote:Barbie's Boyfriend wrote:
Speaking of meteorologists, our Spanish speaking weather prognosticators have it goin' on all over their English speaking compatriots:
[youtube][/youtube]
BB, how many of these lasses do you have living in your spare room at the moment? What's the most you've ever had in one bed at the same time, and how many times did you do them all that night? Have you ever done it with a lady in your Ferrari?
None
One
Never
I own a 2013 Chrysler Town and Country Minivan. And I've never had sex in it
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Is it true?CommanderTuvok wrote:Cringe alert!.
A Social Justice Warrior band have released a "metal" song called "Good Night Alt-Right". They seem to copying Rage Against The Machine, while trying to "act hard". :)
[youtube][/youtube]
Wonder what our very own metal guru Phil, thinks?
[youtube][/youtube]
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Has Myers finally tuned off those semi-porn adverts on his pages? I just went there (a dirty job but someone had to do it ) and turned off my ad blocker and got no Daily Mail Sidebar of Shame type clickbait.deLurch wrote:All of them finitely more successful than the old angry man on the internet.ConcentratedH2O, OM wrote:https://image.ibb.co/gVGshv/Screen_Shot ... _30_PM.png
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Looks like he couldn't figure out the checkbox system.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
It's easy, you take the number or rooms burnt up, then multiply that by how many illegal immigrants you can squeeze into each room.CommanderTuvok wrote: Why they are obsessed with exaggerating the death toll,
Then blame the tories for both. Simples.
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
I like shit like that. Last 25 seconds strongly reminded me of Morricone.Phil_Giordana_FCD wrote:Prrrttt!!!Keating wrote:By about 30 years. Impressive.Phil_Giordana_FCD wrote:
FUCK! Super ninja'd!
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
And people also wander why Pauline Hanson is getting as high a percentage of the vote as the Greens.Brive1987 wrote:Apparently 1 in 4 Australians was born overseas. Ie in addition to the existing difficult "second" generationers.
The median house price in Sydney is 1.5million and a generation is now taking for granted that home ownership is an out of reach luxury.
High density housing is now the norm but our infrastructure projects are dysfunctional. And the roads aren't getting wider.
Our prev. home grown "culture" is seen as an embarrassing product of white history - to be terraformed or replaced with ....... something.
I would like to think all these are drivers of a clever plan.The
But I don't think there actually is one.
I am despondent.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
CommanderTuvok wrote:Cringe alert!.
A Social Justice Warrior band have released a "metal" song called "Good Night Alt-Right". They seem to copying Rage Against The Machine, while trying to "act hard". :)
[youtube][/youtube]
Wonder what our very own metal guru Phil, thinks?
The only thing that whiny tryhard twink can 'knock the fuck out' is a quick one to his favourite anime waifu.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Are they trying to "reclaim" the term "censorship" or something? Wear it as a badge of pride? Cause I don't see it working out too well but by all means keep trying. Don't let abject failure stop you, Paul. Ah hell who do I think I'm talking to? Of course it won't.ConcentratedH2O, OM wrote:Meyers has a post up about bitching about YouTube's video recommend algorithm.
He of course pounds his little fists on the keyboard to type Thunderf00t's name.
https://preview.ibb.co/mz6Q2v/Screen_Sh ... _27_PM.png
The link goes to the Chrome addon, and it seems to be a YouTube variant of the BlockBot!! Here's a screenshot of the list of some blocked channels (like the BB, it has - per the author's admission - just been compiled off the top of his head). Hopefully there will be lulz incoming.
https://image.ibb.co/gVGshv/Screen_Shot ... _30_PM.png
But here once again we see the triumph of the lazy. Do you know how much effort it takes to tell Youtube "no thanks please don't recommend this channel to me"? One click.
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Not good. That singer need to be fired right now for criminal use of unoriginality. The rest may be redeemable.CommanderTuvok wrote:Cringe alert!.
A Social Justice Warrior band have released a "metal" song called "Good Night Alt-Right". They seem to copying Rage Against The Machine, while trying to "act hard". :)
[youtube][/youtube]
Wonder what our very own metal guru Phil, thinks?
May be.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
I asked the week after summer officially began if anything ever came of Peez's promise to finally do something about those ads "this summer" and received no response. Based on his previous track record of promising eventual action and delivering nothing I'm going to say no. He lied about it like he always lies about it because even if his blog earns fuck all these days he's going to squeeze every last penny.InfraRedBucket wrote: Has Myers finally tuned off those semi-porn adverts on his pages? I just went there (a dirty job but someone had to do it ) and turned off my ad blocker and got no Daily Mail Sidebar of Shame type clickbait.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
How exactly is this not RAPE?
And I was about to applaud PZ for killing his bespoke line in porn.
But then I realised that technical fuck up or a changing return-risk ratio was a more probable explaination.
So "get fucked".
And I was about to applaud PZ for killing his bespoke line in porn.
But then I realised that technical fuck up or a changing return-risk ratio was a more probable explaination.
So "get fucked".
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -gift.htmlBride was given a SUICIDE BELT as a wedding present by her jihadist husband known as The Decapitator
And they say romance is dead.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
I am woman.
Pity Dave couldn't attend and do his propeller dance.
Pity Dave couldn't attend and do his propeller dance.
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
The fact that the police came out with a statement promising immunity from prosecution for any 'illegals' from Grenfell if they came forward suggests to me that there are far more than 80 fatalities in that tower and many of them will never be identified.CommanderTuvok wrote:Watching Newsnight tonight (lol) and they independently confirm the estimated death toll from Grenfell at around 80 people. There is no evidence it is any higher, although admit the figure could rise.
It has been fascinating watching the Left in the UK inflate this death toll figure well over 100, and in some cases, in the 2, 3, and 4 hundreds. Why they are obsessed with exaggerating the death toll, I don't know, but their behaviour has very much being like right wing conspiracy theorists. It must suit their agenda to believe several hundred died in Grenfell, rather than just 80, which to me, is still a large number of people to die.
There has been a lot of discussion in the UK whether it is right to "politicise" the tragedy. I think it can, but to some people, "politicise" means make up crazy conspiracy theories and suggest a massive cover-up, etc. Idiots.
It is no surprise to me that Labour are making political hay with this, its what they do, what Corbyn has always done, Rather ironic though that by politicising the tragedy they are revealing just what a fucking mess immigration is in the UK, something many on the left call "Racism" to anyone who is critical.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Check your calenders, boys and girls and otherkin:
Laci Green Livestream on Gender Identity with Meghan Murphy
July 13, 2017
.... YouTube libfem sex ed vlogger Laci Green is hosting a livestream debate on so-called ‘Gender Identity’ Thursday at 1pm Standard Pacific Time.
Participants will be Antifeminist “truscum” transsexual vlogger Blaire White, Radical Feminist author and activist Meghan Murphy, and SJW male funfem vlogger Contra Points (never heard of him either). ....
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
That's one of my favorites as well.Bhurzum wrote:I'm still amazed that these slipped below my radar...
(Clint nails it, the final part is cold as ice!)
[youtube][/youtube]
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Can you guys at least try to stay on topic?
[youtube][/youtube]
[youtube][/youtube]
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
I'd pretty much like to shoot the singer in the face.CommanderTuvok wrote:Cringe alert!.
A Social Justice Warrior band have released a "metal" song called "Good Night Alt-Right". They seem to copying Rage Against The Machine, while trying to "act hard". :)
[youtube][/youtube]
Wonder what our very own metal guru Phil, thinks?
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- That's All Folks
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- Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 10:56 pm
- Location: Nice, France
- Contact:
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
It's The Eagles (of Hotel California fame). They used to make good shit (and this song was used as the theme for H2G2, both radio and movie versions).pro-boxing-fan wrote:
I like shit like that. Last 25 seconds strongly reminded me of Morricone.
[youtube][/youtube]
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
The H2G2 movie version:
[youtube][/youtube]
[youtube][/youtube]
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
I enjoyed that haka. Wonder if they'll do it before the next All Blacks Wallabies game?Brive1987 wrote:I am woman.
Pity Dave couldn't attend and do his propeller dance.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Well I guess it goes some way towards rehabilitating their reputation:
[youtube][/youtube]
[youtube][/youtube]
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
That video was unedifyingly painful.Phil_Giordana_FCD wrote:I'd pretty much like to shoot the singer in the face.CommanderTuvok wrote:Cringe alert!.
A Social Justice Warrior band have released a "metal" song called "Good Night Alt-Right". They seem to copying Rage Against The Machine, while trying to "act hard". :)
[youtube][/youtube]
Wonder what our very own metal guru Phil, thinks?
Much prefer the monks myself.
[youtube][/youtube]
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DEmfJhOU0AAzmVh.jpg
It's not just Zinnia, this madness is spreading. Sexual preferences are achoice social construct, that's the new Progressive paradigm.
It's not just Zinnia, this madness is spreading. Sexual preferences are a
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
I'm still pondering my untransitioned lesbian cross-dressing M-F trans.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Bertie Russell already tried heroically to reduce mathematics to logic & concluded that it was a mistake. Dickie should know this, as he presumptuously borrowed a title for a book of his from Russell. But whatever... fuck it. If Dickie PhD wants to try to reduce logic to mathematics, I say good for him. It'll give him something to do. I guess Bertie shoulda thought of that one before dropping the subject.Really? wrote:Checking in on Dick:
Skepticon asked for money again on June 8 to defray the cost of Dick's suit.http://archive.is/qcdFYHowdy Skeptiworld,
We’ve talked about it before, but Skepticon is still facing down a long and difficult lawsuit. Unfortunately, this means that we need to spend time and energy on fundraising for BOTH legal fees (and our awesome con).
Please consider donating to our legal defense fund and helping Skepticon keep their dino doors open!
Your support means the world!
Love,
Skepticon
I don't know what to make of this statement from Dick in an essay in which he tells us that Bayes' Theorem is for everyone in every field:
http://archive.is/M0h7B
I bolded the part I'm thinking about the most. I guess you can whip out a calculator and a slide rule whenever you wish, but do we really need to "do math" in order to "have a valid conclusion about what's probable?" What math MUST I do in order to assert that the sun will set in the west today? To assert that lying down across a set of train tracks when the train is coming would make a person into a pancake? To assert that a dropped pencil will fall to the ground?If you believe in evidence-based-reasoning, if you believe in rationality, you must agree all your conclusions should be logically valid, and derived from premises you can be fairly certain are true (not just speculated…otherwise, it’s just speculation in, speculation out). But all conclusions from evidence are probabilistic. You never know anything about the facts of the world for certain. You only know such things to some degree of probability. But probability is mathematics. You therefore can never have a valid conclusion about what’s probable, without doing math. Never. Not ever. Sorry, mathophobes. Deal. Because that’s the fact of it: You are doing math. The only question left is, Are you doing it correctly or not?
Also, "probable" has an elastic meaning & is often synonymous with "likely". Dickie can't reduce all human judgments to mathematical calculations. He's not that special.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Kirbmarc wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DEmfJhOU0AAzmVh.jpg
My preference that women with penises shut up definitely is...
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
In the future we will all be living in a post-cissexist society - where the only reason that people do not sleep with Riley Dennis is xir personality.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Fucking dog. On a walk at night just now and without so much as a break in stride it snaps up a large dead possum.
Bastard digs in tight.
In the end I had to sprint full speed with him and then come to a crash stop on a short lead. Dog skids and corpse sails ever on.
Bastard digs in tight.
In the end I had to sprint full speed with him and then come to a crash stop on a short lead. Dog skids and corpse sails ever on.
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
And now for a brief musical interlude:
[youtube][/youtube]
[youtube][/youtube]
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Our very own RW - Clementine Ford is amazed that her online radfem rants have created enemies.
She can't quite connect the dots:
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/news-an ... xaa6z.html
She can't quite connect the dots:
Where do these terrible men get their ideas from?Since announcing my second book, Boys Will Be Boys (an exploration of toxic masculinity and the bonds of harmful brotherhood), I have been told I should have my son taken away from me. That I am a child abuser who will teach him to hate himself.
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/news-an ... xaa6z.html
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Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
No more "Ladies and Gentlemen" on the London Underground
http://www.itv.com/news/london/2017-07- ... uncements/
Tube bosses want to make the service more gender-neutral
http://www.itv.com/news/london/2017-07- ... uncements/
Re: In 2017 Idiocracy is a Documentary
Easy J wrote:Bertie Russell already tried heroically to reduce mathematics to logic & concluded that it was a mistake. Dickie should know this, as he presumptuously borrowed a title for a book of his from Russell. But whatever... fuck it. If Dickie PhD wants to try to reduce logic to mathematics, I say good for him. It'll give him something to do. I guess Bertie shoulda thought of that one before dropping the subject.Really? wrote:Checking in on Dick:
Skepticon asked for money again on June 8 to defray the cost of Dick's suit.http://archive.is/qcdFYHowdy Skeptiworld,
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I don't know what to make of this statement from Dick in an essay in which he tells us that Bayes' Theorem is for everyone in every field:
http://archive.is/M0h7B
I bolded the part I'm thinking about the most. I guess you can whip out a calculator and a slide rule whenever you wish, but do we really need to "do math" in order to "have a valid conclusion about what's probable?" What math MUST I do in order to assert that the sun will set in the west today? To assert that lying down across a set of train tracks when the train is coming would make a person into a pancake? To assert that a dropped pencil will fall to the ground?If you believe in evidence-based-reasoning, if you believe in rationality, you must agree all your conclusions should be logically valid, and derived from premises you can be fairly certain are true (not just speculated…otherwise, it’s just speculation in, speculation out). But all conclusions from evidence are probabilistic. You never know anything about the facts of the world for certain. You only know such things to some degree of probability. But probability is mathematics. You therefore can never have a valid conclusion about what’s probable, without doing math. Never. Not ever. Sorry, mathophobes. Deal. Because that’s the fact of it: You are doing math. The only question left is, Are you doing it correctly or not?
Also, "probable" has an elastic meaning & is often synonymous with "likely". Dickie can't reduce all human judgments to mathematical calculations. He's not that special.
Even this line of his essay:
Shows misunderstanding of the theorem he claims to be divinely qualified to name. The beauty of Bayes done properly (using new information to correct your prediction) is that it is somewhat insensitive to your initial a priori assumption. A bad premise, if you will, gets corrected more by new information than a good premise, marching both to similar conclusions. Of course, Carrier doesn't use Bayes' Theorem as intended, as many have pointed out.Because bad premises, always lead to bad conclusions