Mykeru wrote:
... the solution involves human psychology as much as physical evidence. If you read the work on "woodshock" by Lawrence Gonzales, people in these situations often do what seems, in hindsight to be terribly irrational things by people who have a long time to ponder a situation they themselves are not in.
... They bug out, having to cut the tent from the inside and although fearful, they make an orderly retreat, perhaps doing something "dumb" but no dumber than what people do on a regular basis, re: a series of dumb errors that results in some guy having to cut his own arm off and they make a movie about it, for example. By the time they figure out they are weighed down with injured and everyone else is dying too and the feared avalanche didn't come to pass, it's just too late....
Now that the sun's out again, I want to revisit this.
From the links y'all provided, I see nothing 'mysterious' or inexplicable about the details or course of events
following the party's decision to leave the tent. As some of you have noted, fatal disasters like these usually result from a compounding of minor, seemingly trivial, misjudgments. The Donner Party was doomed even before they left St. Joe. Nor do I see signs of a cover-up by the Soviets.
All that remains unanswered with Dyaltov Pass is, what could have compelled not just experienced trekkers, but Russian ones, to flee in the middle of the night, in sub-zero weather, barefoot and in their underwear? That is no minor miscalculation, rather a drastic, high-risk expediency. They desperately felt the urgent need to either get away from the tent, or to somewhere else (their cache, presumedly.)
I find the injuries-from-avalanche theory unpersuasive. Even if that did occur, you give first-aid to the three (?) injured, then send two or three of your most able colleagues to reach the cache (for what, medical supplies??) And they first suit up properly. If you've determined that the tent site no longer provides adequate shelter, then you all first suit up properly.
No, they had to have been convinced that, if they did not flee the tent site that very instant, they would die. We can imagine one of them hurriedly pulling on one shoe, but judging that no time was left to put on the other (or find it). This strikes me less similar to Schackleton's compounding of errors than the group insanity of the Franklin Expedition. And so, I'm forced to consider the really bizarre options -- infrasound 'madness', weapons testing, etc.
A few questions:
* Is there any better insight as to whether the tent was stove in, or cut open from the inside?
* Nearby radio transmitters were mentioned as a possible source of infrasound. Has the presence of those been confirmed? Can they indeed produce infrasound? What other plausible sources of infrasound exist?
* Any other plausible sources for something affecting the entire group's judgement?