Steerzing in a New Direction...

Matt Cavanaugh
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3661

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

Sounding more like they returned from the Pianista trail. Restaurant owner said their dog, who likes to accompany hikers, went out and returned. Others say they saw the girls looking for a way back into town, suggested a taxi.

AFAICT, the location of those eerie night time photos can not be identified.

And everybody whose path crossed the girls ended up dead under suspicious circumstances.

fafnir
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3662

Post by fafnir »

Matt Cavanaugh wrote:
fafnir wrote: Still in the brave new world, unless we are the Eloi, we won't be able to travel to these places anyway.
Setting aside your mixing of science fiction metaphors. -- so don't go. They're all shitholes, anyway. Beautiful scenery, sure, but you will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.
Just like Scotland, apart from the scenery.


Brive1987
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3664

Post by Brive1987 »

Matt Cavanaugh wrote:
I think you are overstating the alleged lack of evidence. Yes there's gaps. But there's also a shed load of data sifted through by the Dutch - where this was a VERY high profile case.
I think fafnir's point was that the press do a shitty job presenting the details of cases like these, omitting important details, while confusing or misstating others. The timeline is the key to solving disappearances and crimes; the timeline is usually bolloxed by the media.

NB: I'm working with what I remember off the top of my head, having read about this case a few years ago. You seem to have all the details spread out in front of you, then nit-pick (e.g., hiking boots vs. sneakers, when the gist is, the girls weren't properly equipped for an extended stay in the jungle.). One can often not see the forest for the trees. Do one of your maps for us -- they always help put things in perspective.
There are a lot of v. good timelines available. Interesting the response here to this case. It’s not like it’s an OJ or Jon-Benet tribal finger pointing exercise. They either had an accident and died. Were murdered. Or had an accident and then got murdered. That’s pretty much it. And that ain’t controversial. The puzzle is fitting a best probability scenario to avail evidence.

There we have the Dutch police released phone logs. We have released pictures. And leaked pictures. We have Dutch police released phone tower data. We have a picture of what was in their recovered bag. some pictures may have had their contrast adjusted etc but no photoshopped Bigfoot have been presented as a smoking gun.

Then we have the geography itself. And the location of their partial remains. We know Lianne was wearing her laced up boots. We know their bras we not being worn. There’s a probability Lianne had a damaged foot.

Matt however jumps between “idiot unprepared” and “idiot western girls got their just desserts”. 🤷‍♂️ On the former, a 3 hr hike on a formed path does not require an emergency cache. There’s no evidence exposure or water was an issue. In fact they possibly survived for 5-10 days. Probably while injured. Kudos there. Short of a flare gun or satellite beacon … they held out. Map and compass? Most trail bashers aren’t set up for an orientation course. On the latter, the women weren’t saving the world. The “Spanish by the River” deal was immersion. You did a language course and then nominated a local business for volunteer placement to practice and see local life. Their website lists opportunities across a spread of trades including veterinarian. They chose a school. Probably maternal instincts. Maybe it was a safe bet? The school is still operating and by all accounts there is a constant flow of young westerners. Hardly any get butchered by the cartels. The absolute risk construct parallels recent thinking around the threat of COVID to life and limb. Present but you wouldn’t run your life by it.

Fafnir seems to have gone Pomo - believing there’s no reality to discuss unless it’s vetted by the Dutch police. Even a technical photographic expert testing the same camera has nothing to offer because he’s an ‘amateur detective’. Apparently the evidence that has been released can’t inform a reasonable discussion. 🤷‍♂️

It’s striking that the two families, with their access to info, have reached opposing POV. Kris is in the murder camp. Lisanne in the accident camp. Clearly the official position allows for a diverse discussion.

Brive1987
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3665

Post by Brive1987 »

Meh. It addition to having an accident is somehow getting lost and then eventually dying or having a follow up accident. The lack of notes etc mitigated against them being hale and hearty stuck in the Bush. And the terrain precludes random wandering a la AT.

Steersman
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3666

Post by Steersman »

fafnir wrote: It turns out Steven Crowder has hopped on the Steersman train:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxXwl4E9NcU&t=4199s
1hr10mins in.
:-)
69:53 you are barren, that's how it works you took the vaccine so your period stuff, you are no longer a woman so i guess you can now drive subaru yes aoc dead womb, oh boy
Progress! Today Crowder, tomorrow the World! ;-)

Though not sure about the reference to driving a Subaru - something about "women" being able to drive in outposts of The Enlightenment like Saudi Arabia?

But methinks that "women" are going to have to decide whether "woman" refers to any one of a myriad of genders - by which Jenner and Bergdorf qualify - or whether it refers to and denotes, is defined as, "adult human female (produces ova)". Don't see any other alternatives, any way they can have their cakes and eat them too - which seems to be the objective of far too many of them. And of many of their fellow-travelers and "useful idiots" of course ... ;-)

Though some evidence that "the times, they are 'achangin", to coin a phrase, from a feminist "philosopher", of sorts, who've I've tangled with on the issue before. Whole thread is interesting, but I think it's a step in the right direction that Jones apparently now accepts that "female" is ONLY a label for a "reproductive classification":

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And can still qualify as "human beings" even after they no longer qualify as females; such a difficult concept for far too many. One would think that we were discussing quantum mechanics ...



But of note too is the absolutely clueless - being charitable - suggestion by "MrAlgolagnist" that "woman" denotes anything more than "adult human female".

Also an "interesting", if convoluted and thorny, observation by "Amber":



Whole lotta people seem to think that saying someone is a "woman" or a "man" ["adult human female/male"] is to say that being members of those categories are the sum-totals of their "identities".

But an incredibly murky issue that gets into Quine's word-and-object territory, into Korzybski's "map-territory" idea. I had tangled with an FTBlogger - HJ Horneck - on the issue some years ago, somewhat inconclusively, and need to reprise the issue - need to pour a bit of salt on his tail ;-) . While I was barking up the wrong tree on a number of points - think I've learned a few things since then, it seems rather clear that he has any number of highly questionable biases and "cognitive distortions" himself; couple of howlers from his YouTube video & Google Docs transcript - which I see Brive had briefly weighed-in on:
Page 28: Transfeminism holds that sex and gender are both socially constructed; furthermore, the distinction between sex and gender is artificially drawn as a matter of convenience.

Page 28: So far as I know, no-one's done a poll to figure out the share each view has within feminism. Based on my peers and my readings, however, the transfeminist view seems to be the majority one, so it'll be the view I defend.

Pg 29: If there are two sexes, how do you explain the existence of people that don't fit neatly into either sex? For advocates of the two-sex model, there was only one choice: these "intersex" people were the defective ones, deviating from the ideal male or female form.
Kinda clueless that the "two-sex model" does not mean that it precludes individual organisms - of a myriad of sexually reproducing species - from being of neither sex.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3667

Post by Steersman »

Matt Cavanaugh wrote:
fafnir wrote: Still in the brave new world, unless we are the Eloi, we won't be able to travel to these places anyway.
Setting aside your mixing of science fiction metaphors. -- so don't go. They're all shitholes, anyway. Beautiful scenery, sure, but you will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.
Indeed. At least outside of various dives on backwater planets of the Empire like Tatooine ... ;-)

Service Dog
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3668

Post by Service Dog »






Steersman
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3669

Post by Steersman »

Service Dog wrote:
Matt Cavanaugh wrote: Fauci had Covid engineered in Wuhan after DARPA (US military research) rejected it for violating the Gain of Function ban:

https://amgreatness.com/2022/01/11/form ... -for-bats/
I think Veritas is using Rachel Maddow standards-of-evidence here.
These documents are a 'Steele Dossier', with this USMC Murphy guy in the role of Christopher Steele.

I'd wait until someone like Scott Horton or Glenn Greenwald or Edward Snowden vets the claims & provides corroborating evidence.
Think I'd more or less agree with pretty much all of that - surprise, surprise ;-)

Maybe there's a smoking gun of sorts in there somewhere, but much of those "documents" doesn't seem to pass the smell test. Interestingly, that Crowder video that Fafnir linked to is pushing some of that, some of which again seems rather questionable at best:

YouTube_LouderCrowder_Wuhan1A.jpg
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Methinks that "inoculating bats" is about as tenable, and as risible, as The Men Who Stare at Goats.


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And "as suggested by the reporting", and "not publicly disclosed" should be seen as some red flags on the play.

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Now if there was an actual DARPA document saying "too close to violating" then that might raise a justifiable concern about potential depredations of the "BigPharm-Industrial State". But, from what I've seen so far, that still seems to be no more than smoke and mirrors.

Rather profoundly depressing that there are so many bad actors on pretty much all sides, far too many willing to create or peddle "weapons of mass destruction distraction" fantasies to promote various highly questionable political objectives.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3670

Post by fafnir »

Brive1987 wrote: Meh. It addition to having an accident is somehow getting lost and then eventually dying or having a follow up accident. The lack of notes etc mitigated against them being hale and hearty stuck in the Bush.
Sure, but then again the facts of the case as they are claimed seems to mitigate against any outcome. They were wandering about for a week and left no notes, took no photos of themselves? They were wandering about for a week, and then they were murdered? Somebody got the codes for their phones, then murdered them, then played about with their phones and took weird pictures of the jungle. Whatever happened is going to be implausible or incredibly unlikely, assuming the key facts of the case as we know them at present are true.

Perhaps they left no notes on their phones, but wrote something down that has since been lost/destroyed?
Brive1987 wrote: And the terrain precludes random wandering a la AT.
Certainly large parts of it are very difficult going. Equally, there are rivers that can be followed, and perhaps other tracks through the jungle.

Matt Cavanaugh
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3671

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

Brive1987 wrote: They either had an accident and died. Were murdered. Or had an accident and then got murdered.

[....]

Matt however jumps between “idiot unprepared” and “idiot western girls got their just desserts”. 🤷‍♂️ On the former, a 3 hr hike on a formed path does not require an emergency cache.
If they had an accident and got stuck, then they were unprepared. Accidents can happen. You can get lost. So always be prepared.
- flashlight
- whistle
- mirror
- knife
- paracord
- space blanket
- water purifier
- protein bars
- IFAK
- power bank

all can fit easily into a backpack. As can at least a windbreaker or pullover.


In fact they possibly survived for 5-10 days.
I doubt that timeline.

there is a constant flow of young westerners. Hardly any get butchered by the cartels.
If they were murdered, then they failed to properly assess the environment or read their assailants.

Apparently, there are occasionally muggings on that trail. Most property crimes probably never get reported. Nor do rapes. We only hear about the disappearances and deaths because they can't be swept under the rug.

From their diaries, they were in full tourist mode -- drinking during the day, dining, massages. Just because that town was a tourist destination, doesn't mean it's Disneyland.

Basic rule. Never go to a unknown location with unknown people. If the swimming photo is them, then they drove to a remote location with some local boys, and swam topless. Huge mistake in a rural part of a sexist country.

You conclude foul play was involved. Meaning their paths crossed someone foul. Meaning they misjudged that persons or persons, trusted them erroneously, failed to read them (all the harder to do as they were not fluent in Spanish, much less the local dialect.) So yeah, naiveté born of a soft metropolitan life experience.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3672

Post by fafnir »

Brive1987 wrote: The puzzle is fitting a best probability scenario to avail evidence.
Fitting scenarios to evidence, sure. The idea that there is really any process of comparing probabilities that isn't wildly subjective seems to me like self deception. If we are thinking of this in a Bayesian way, as people in the Amanda Knox JREF thread insisted on doing, I think the uncertainty about what the facts are, and that it is effectively impossible to estimate key probabilities, renders the whole thing moot. You are smuggling your conclusions past yourself into
Brive1987 wrote: Fafnir seems to have gone Pomo - believing there’s no reality to discuss unless it’s vetted by the Dutch police. Even a technical photographic expert testing the same camera has nothing to offer because he’s an ‘amateur detective’. Apparently the evidence that has been released can’t inform a reasonable discussion.
He is testing a camera of the same model to the camera they had, whose settings he doesn't know and using screenshots of directory contents and downscaled photos since he doesn't have the original SD card image. I don't care how good he is, this is dilettante, amateur stuff. In his analysis he mentions a setting, that if set, would account for the numbering without any great mystery. He doesn't test that and ignores it for the rest of his analysis because it offers an immediate answer to the question. The police presumably know if that setting was enabled or not. We are basing arguments on assumed facts about the case that we are guessing in order to be able to keep the investigation moving forward. It isn't postmodern to point that out.

I get wanting to be Internet sleuths, and that it's fun to speculate... If there is something desperately wrong here to warrant things being leaked so that Internet detectives can work the case, let's see the police report.

There is nothing pomo about saying that the evidence in this case is contradictory, unreliable and incomplete. The place to start is with the reports of the people who gathered the evidence and had an opportunity to challenge witnesses and investigate leads. Without that, I'm not saying don't play internet detective. Maybe the truth can be found. I just have quite a high bar of scepticism to get over since my expectation with these kinds of cases is that the publicly available information will be contradictory, unreliable and incomplete.

If we were taking this seriously, and I am doubtful that we are, we would be doing a lot more asking "how do we know that?" about the evidence and a lot less "what could this thing somebody claimed in a blog in 2017 mean for the case?".

This reminds me of an essay years ago about why BLM always choose such terrible cases to champion. The argument was that if they found an instance where the police obviously executed somebody for no reason, then everybody would agree that it was terrible and the cop would go to jail. What they need is cases with evidence that undermines their claims, that way people defend the cop and they can do their thing around that different perception of what happened. I think it's the same thing here. The reason that this is an Internet mystery is because there really isn't any kind of clear answer to what happened based on the publicly available info. If there was, we wouldn't be talking about it 7 years later.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3673

Post by fafnir »

Matt Cavanaugh wrote: If they were murdered, then they failed to properly assess the environment or read their assailants.
That seems a little bit unfair. Even the best prepared people can be taken out by bad RNG.Obviously they weren't the best prepared, but nonetheless, they could just have got very unlucky.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3674

Post by fafnir »

Matt Cavanaugh wrote: If they had an accident and got stuck, then they were unprepared. Accidents can happen. You can get lost. So always be prepared.
- flashlight
- whistle
- mirror
<snip>
In an early Kate Winslet TV show, she always carried a paddle in her backpack in case she was ever up the creek.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3675

Post by Service Dog »

In September 2021-- AndrewV69 posted an Intercept link, regarding the Gain Of Function research proposed by Daszak's Eco-Health... and (seemingly) rejected by DARPA in 2018.

This at-least partially corroborates the documents presented by Veritas:
AndrewV69 wrote: This article from the Intercept is pretty comprehensive, with links to sources with links to documents to substantiate their conclusions.
Leaked Grant Proposal Details High-Risk Coronavirus Research The proposal, rejected by U.S. military research agency DARPA, describes the insertion of human-specific cleavage sites into SARS-related bat coronaviruses.
https://theintercept.com/2021/09/23/cor ... ant-darpa/
"The EcoHealth Alliance did not respond to inquiries about the document, despite having answered previous queries from The Intercept about the group’s government-funded coronavirus research. The group’s president, Peter Daszak, acknowledged the public discussion of an unfunded EcoHealth proposal in a tweet on Saturday. He did not dispute its authenticity."

"“We will introduce appropriate human-specific cleavage sites and evaluate growth potential in [a type of mammalian cell commonly used in microbiology] and HAE cultures,” referring to cells found in the lining of the human airway, the proposal states.

The new proposal, which also described a plan to mass vaccinate bats in caves, does not provide conclusive evidence that the virus that caused the pandemic emerged from a lab. And virus experts remain sharply divided over its origins. But several scientists who work with coronaviruses told The Intercept that they felt that the proposal shifted the terrain of the debate."

"Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University who has espoused the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 may have originated in a lab, agreed. “The relevance of this is that SARS Cov-2, the pandemic virus, is the only virus in its entire genus of SARS-related coronaviruses that contains a fully functional cleavage site at the S1, S2 junction,” said Ebright, referring to the place where two subunits of the spike protein meet. “And here is a proposal from the beginning of 2018, proposing explicitly to engineer that sequence at that position in chimeric lab-generated coronaviruses.”

Peter Daszak and Linfa Wang, two of the researchers who submitted the proposal, did not previously acknowledge it.

Matt Cavanaugh
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3676

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

fafnir wrote:
Matt Cavanaugh wrote: If they were murdered, then they failed to properly assess the environment or read their assailants.
That seems a little bit unfair. Even the best prepared people can be taken out by bad RNG.Obviously they weren't the best prepared, but nonetheless, they could just have got very unlucky.
Maybe so. I'm working on the assumption that they returned safely from the Pianista Trail, then went to the swimming spot, where things went bad from there.

In any case, Panama is a fucked up country with a big crime problem and a sexist culture. If you don't know a culture or a place, assume there are things you will miss that can hurt you. These girls were acting like they were on Ibiza. They were in Cooper White the entire trip.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3677

Post by Service Dog »

September 11, 2020:



The Intercept link which AndrewV69 posted... cited the 'DRASTIC' group of independent online researchers-- as the source which discovered Eco-Health's attempted use of DARPA funds for Gain Of Function experiments.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3678

Post by Steersman »

Service Dog wrote: September 11, 2020:

https://i.imgur.com/fo7Hbob.png

The Intercept link which AndrewV69 posted... cited the 'DRASTIC' group of independent online researchers-- as the source which discovered Eco-Health's attempted use of DARPA funds for Gain Of Function experiments.
Interesting reading - seems that I read the Intercept article some 3 months ago but probably only skimmed it. Your comment and Andrew's about a year or so earlier for reference:

https://slymepit.com/phpbb/viewtopic.ph ... 80#p498586

https://slymepit.com/phpbb/viewtopic.ph ... 00#p498709

And the Intercept article:

https://theintercept.com/2021/09/23/cor ... ant-darpa/

Interesting that the latter at least suggests that the "furin cleavage site" is something close to a smoking gun on the "gain-of-function" argument:
The furin cleavage site enables the virus to more efficiently bind to and release its genetic material into a human cell and is one of the reasons that the virus is so easily transmissible and harmful. But scientists are divided over how this particular site wound up in the virus, and the cleavage site became a major focus of the heated debate over the origins of the pandemic.

Many who believe that the virus that caused the pandemic emerged from a laboratory have pointed out that it is unlikely that the particular sequence of amino acids that make up the furin cleavage site would have occurred naturally.

Adherents of the idea that SARS-CoV-2 emerged from a natural spillover from animal hosts have argued that it could have evolved naturally from an as-yet undiscovered virus. Further, they argued, scientists were unlikely to have engineered the feature.
However, a PNAS article from 2009 explicitly states that the authors created such sites in the "SARS-CoV":
Here, we identify a proteolytic cleavage site within the SARS-CoV S2 domain (S2′, R797). Mutation of R797 specifically inhibited trypsin-dependent fusion in both cell–cell fusion and pseudovirion entry assays. We also introduced a furin cleavage site at both the S2′ cleavage site within S2 793-KPTKR-797 (S2′), as well as at the junction of S1 and S2. Introduction of a furin cleavage site at the S2′ position allowed trypsin-independent cell–cell fusion, which was strongly increased by the presence of a second furin cleavage site at the S1–S2 position.
Whether that's quite the same kettle of fish, the exact same virus, as what the Intercept article was referring to is decidedly moot - and I sure don't know enough biochemistry to say for sure. But it sure looks suspicious to me.

However, there's also more than a bit of evidence, much of it in the Defuse proposal linked to in the Intercept article, to suggest that whatever the labcoated boffins were doing, they were doing it, largely, with "the best of intentions". From the website of several of the authors of a study that was linked to in the Defuse proposal:
Baric and Menachery [study co-authors] say that other researchers can build on their findings with additional viral families and that studies with full length and chimeric versions of SARS-like viruses are the key to developing better therapeutics, including both vaccine and antibody approaches.

“This type of work generates information about novel viruses circulating in animal populations and develops resources to help define the threat these pathogens may pose to human populations,” Baric said. “It’s important to note that it’s not an approach that’s limited to SARS or SARS-like viruses. It can be applied to other emerging pathogens to helping us prepare for the next emergent virus, whether it be MERS, the Zika virus or something we haven’t even heard of yet.”
Largely dedicated scientists commendably seeking to protect the world's population from potentially devastating viruses. But rather moot whether the "genie" they summoned has gotten out of control.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3679

Post by Service Dog »

Steersman wrote: there's also more than a bit of evidence, much of it in the Defuse proposal linked to in the Intercept article, to suggest that whatever the labcoated boffins were doing, they were doing it, largely, with "the best of intentions"
Your memory is weak. And so the masters steer you with ease.

The same 'labcoated boffins' you so-casually defend... Peter Daszak & his Eco-Health cronies... were exposed as having created the FRAUDULENT "independent" open letter which leveraged the credible reputation of The Lancet... to downplay the 'lab leak' theory as Conspiracy nonsense.

The letter signatories claimed they had "no competing interests", but their ties to Eco-Health were exposed by Vanity Fair reporting, causing the Lancet to retract the letter & distance themselves from Daszak's machinations.

https://usrtk.org/wp-content/uploads/20 ... _email.pdf

Daszak used his insider connections to get himself appointed as the sole US-based "investigator" sent to Wuhan to investigate the lab... and he categorically declared the lab had nothing to do with the Covid outbreak--- without so-much as setting foot in the Wuhan lab. Case closed, nothing to see here, move along, the science is settled: and anyone who said otherwise was blasted with the full-force of the 'Trusted News Initiative': big tech censorship. Targeted attacks attempting to get dissenters' medical licenses revoked. Attempts to remove hospital-access privileges, tenure, positions of employment.

"In January, Daszak was the only American representative to take part in a World Health Organization visit to Wuhan that led to a finding that it’s “extremely unlikely” the coronavirus leaked from a Chinese lab.

During a March 10 event in London, Daszak admitted that the group didn’t ask to inspect the WIV’s database of 22,000 virus samples and sequences, a decision he defended by saying that “a lot of this work has been conducted with EcoHealth Alliance,” Vanity Fair said.

Daszak also said Shi told the group that the WIV removed the database from the internet due to hacking attempts during the pandemic — but it was actually taken offline on Sept. 12, 2019, three months before the official start of the outbreak, according to Vanity Fair.

In response to detailed questions from Vanity Fair, an EcoHealth spokesperson speaking for both the organization and Daszak said, “We have no comment,”


Just days ago, Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas confronted Dr. Fauci in a Congressional hearing-- regarding Fauci's undisclosed financial ties to Daszak and Eco-Health. Refusing to answer Marshall's questions, Fauci's response was to insult, live on mic, the duly-elected Senator tasked with oversight of Fauci's actions. Fauci replied, "What a moron."

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3680

Post by Steersman »

Service Dog wrote:
Steersman wrote: there's also more than a bit of evidence, much of it in the Defuse proposal linked to in the Intercept article, to suggest that whatever the labcoated boffins were doing, they were doing it, largely, with "the best of intentions"
Your memory is weak. And so the masters steer you with ease.
:roll: I'm not sure that your master isn't the uneducated mob.
Service Dog wrote: The same 'labcoated boffins' you so-casually defend... Peter Daszak & his Eco-Health cronies... were exposed as having created the FRAUDULENT "independent" open letter which leveraged the credible reputation of The Lancet... to downplay the 'lab leak' theory as Conspiracy nonsense.

The letter signatories claimed they had "no competing interests", but their ties to Eco-Health were exposed by Vanity Fair reporting, causing the Lancet to retract the letter & distance themselves from Daszak's machinations.
The "boffins" I was referring to were those who had apparently been engaged, commendably, in trying proactively to get a handle on various viruses ahead of more or less inevitable outbreaks, part of which apparently consisted in creating "furin cleavage sites" for a decade and a half before the outbreak. Don't see it as implausible that that horse could have bolted the corral long before then or in other locations.

There may well be a case that Daszak - and his "cronies" - are trying to cover their butts for one reason or another, or even that there was an actual lab-leak at Wuhan. But still don't see their actions as any sort of a smoking gun; you actually have any tangible - not circumstantial - evidence that that's the case? :think: :roll:

You might reflect on Hanlon's razor: "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."
Service Dog wrote: Just days ago, Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas confronted Dr. Fauci in a Congressional hearing-- regarding Fauci's undisclosed financial ties to Daszak and Eco-Health. Refusing to answer Marshall's questions, Fauci's response was to insult, live on mic, the duly-elected Senator tasked with oversight of Fauci's actions. Fauci replied, "What a moron."
:roll: Seems pretty accurate:
Marshall was no Katie Porter, briskly demanding specifics, but a man who seemed not to know what he wanted to know. Would Fauci be willing to submit a financial disclosure to Congress and the public, he demanded?

Fauci wearily answered that his compensation has been public information for every one of his 37 years in government. ....

“Tech giants are doing an incredible job of keeping it from being public,” Marshall said, making no sense. “We’ll continue to look for it. Where would we find it?” “All you have to do is ask for it,” Fauci answered. “You’re so misinformed, it’s extraordinary.” ....

Marshall’s attack on the director’s salary is part of a broader campaign pushing the idea that Fauci is goosing the U.S. coronavirus response to make bank. What began as a false allegation that he nefariously misdirected National Institutes of Health money to a lab in China has now morphed into hazy charges that Fauci’s “investments” have enriched him personally. ....
Though "moron" is probably being charitable.

https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/edit ... 30727.html

fafnir
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3681

Post by fafnir »

Matt Cavanaugh wrote:
fafnir wrote:
Matt Cavanaugh wrote: If they were murdered, then they failed to properly assess the environment or read their assailants.
That seems a little bit unfair. Even the best prepared people can be taken out by bad RNG.Obviously they weren't the best prepared, but nonetheless, they could just have got very unlucky.
Maybe so. I'm working on the assumption that they returned safely from the Pianista Trail, then went to the swimming spot, where things went bad from there.
Does that match with the cellphone data? If they went back to town, presumably they would have come back into range of the cell towers?

fafnir
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3682

Post by fafnir »

Steersman wrote: You might reflect on Hanlon's razor: "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."
Or Conquests 3rd law: "The behavior of any bureaucratic organization can best be understood by assuming that it is controlled by a secret cabal of its enemies."

Keating
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3683

Post by Keating »

Passing though: It seems to me that the war on tobacco versus the push to decriminalise marijuana is largely a class war. Poor people smoke tobacco, rich people smoke marijuana.

fafnir
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3684

Post by fafnir »

Keating wrote: Passing though: It seems to me that the war on tobacco versus the push to decriminalise marijuana is largely a class war. Poor people smoke tobacco, rich people smoke marijuana.
There is also the element of needing to legalise it before you can wrap the kind of bureaucracy around it that there is with tobacco.

If one were to get conspiratorial about this.... nicotine is a stimulant and reduces anxiety. Marijuana is the opposite. We live in an increasingly unproductive, apathetic, neurotic world.... maybe on some level that is the preferred direction?

Another angle is the emotional associations. Marijuana is connected to the dream of the John Lennon Imagine utopian self actualising, self discovering individual. It's part of the same current that is driving the culture. The associations of tobacco are from a different vision of the world.
https://c.tenor.com/5N8_NYGagTgAAAAC/la ... -smoke.gif

Gumby
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3685

Post by Gumby »

another lurker wrote:
Gumby wrote: I'm all right I guess. Inching my way toward whatever passes for my retirement. You still on Twitter? I never got the itch to go back there.
gumby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
hugs!!!!!!!!!!!111111
*Hugs back*

How are ya?

Gumby
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3686

Post by Gumby »

Steersman wrote:
Gumby wrote: I see the Steersman prose generator code needs to be tweaked, it's dangerously close to an infinite loop. The fafnir subroutines as well. Must be the Pit 😃
"The Singularity"l we of the cognescenti say "The Singularity" - any time soon now ... ;-)

Just looking the archives and see your "The Bjarte Foshaug Academy of Stick Pablum" :) :

http://slymepit.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?f=21&t=376

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Someone needs to go over to FTB and wave a red flag of sorts in their faces to get them to consider a rematch - sure provided endless entertainment ... ;-)

But how the hell you doing? Looking forward to retirement? Highly recommended - except, of course, for it being a bit closer to that "final exit". :-)
Ha! I'd forgotten all about Bjarte. Good times, good times.

Those were the days my friend
We thought they'd never end
We'd sing and dance forever and a day
We'd live the life we choose
We'd fight and never lose
For we were young and sure to have our way

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3687

Post by Gumby »

Lsuoma wrote: OK, folks. I have decided to release - selectively - some of the FfTB back channel emails. Let me know if there are any subjects you're particularly interested in, and I'll se if there are any hot 'n' juicy nuggets. Can't promise, but let's take a looksee

As I said earlier, these are from late 2015 (not sure of the start date, but I have some 40,000 emails), but that was around the time FfTB jumped the shark.
Where? Where? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?

ThreeFlangedJavis
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3688

Post by ThreeFlangedJavis »

Love listening to James Lindsay unpack what's really going on. I know this is long but it's worth it if you aren't burned out on wokeness. He sees some hope because of the disproportionate amount of effort required to convince people of crazy shit that can be cut through with a statement of the obvious and the fact that the liars resort to stupidity like trying to convince people that it's normal for athletes to keel over mid-match and children to have strokes. He shows how closely the Biden playbook follows Marcusian principles with repressive tolerance and "everyday is Jan 6th" and how so many people are able to see through it now. Jan 6th did not go as violently as hoped but it's the only hand they have to play. The moral extortionists have overextended.


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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3689

Post by fafnir »

The thing about James Lindsay is that he's good at reading all the Frankfurt school and related stuff, but he pretty much just restricts his analysis to that. I think he still believes in the liberalism of the 90s, and doesn't really question any of that. He's taken the New Atheism world view and redirected it to fight wokeness. Ultimately he has quite a normie position.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3690

Post by Service Dog »

Steersman wrote: Though "moron" is probably being charitable.

https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/edit ... 30727.html
You're parroting garbage.

Your Op-Ed link claims that-- because we know the dollar amount of Fauci's government salary-- his finances are fully 'available' and 'disclosed'.

In reality-- Marshall explicitly described to-Fauci-- the Congressional rules regarding the ownership & trading of stocks (and the requirement to obtain approval before conducting transactions above a certain dollar amount). He asked Fauci whether he would submit to a similar degree of scrutiny.

Fauci scoffed at the question-- claiming he was already in full compliance. And "all you have to do is ask for it."

Senator Marshall has done so previously, and again now. Marshall followed up with a formal letter of request:

"In the letter to Fauci, Marshall cites a New York Post article in which a Fauci spokesperson was unable to produce the disclosures that Fauci claimed were public and a Forbes article reporting that Fauci’s salary, stock and bond purchases, and royalty payments for this year and last year are not publicly available.

"This letter is to formally request your financial disclosures for the fiscal years covering the pandemic," Marshall wrote. "Several of my requests for information from your office have required months for a response or are still outstanding. Please provide these disclosures by 5:00pm Friday, January 14. Furthermore, considering the extensive redaction of the disclosure dated April 21, 2020, please provide me with copies that only redacts personal and sensitive information allowed for by law."

Prior to his terms in the senate, Senator Marshall served as Captain Marshall in the US Army, and was Dr. Marshall-- a physician. He holds a Bachelors degree in Biochemistry. He graduated in the top 1% of all OB/GYN residents and delivered over 5,000 babies in his 25 year medical career. He earned a Resident Research Award and was voted top teacher by faculty & fellow residents.

Forbes published this update on their lawsuit to have Fauci's financial records revealed:

https://archive.fo/C8i0T

fafnir
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3691

Post by fafnir »

If we are bashing the experts, maybe this recent video from Viva Frei will be interesting. He talks about the emails from 2 years ago where the experts discuss there being good odds of Covid having come from a lab, and agree to hush it up on the grounds that it will harm science and international harmony for ordinary people to know this.


Matt Cavanaugh
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3692

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

Keating wrote: Passing though: It seems to me that the war on tobacco versus the push to decriminalise marijuana is largely a class war. Poor people smoke tobacco, rich people smoke marijuana.
Especially the crusade against menthol cigarettes, for which blacks are the prime market. Cuz, as little monkey children*, they're too easily tricked into nicotine addiction by tasty flavors, so the White Elite must swoop in yet again to save them from themselves.


* A line from GLORY, btw.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3693

Post by fafnir »

Matt Cavanaugh wrote:
Keating wrote: Passing though: It seems to me that the war on tobacco versus the push to decriminalise marijuana is largely a class war. Poor people smoke tobacco, rich people smoke marijuana.
Especially the crusade against menthol cigarettes, for which blacks are the prime market. Cuz, as little monkey children*, they're too easily tricked into nicotine addiction by tasty flavors, so the White Elite must swoop in yet again to save them from themselves.


* A line from GLORY, btw.
The middle class morality of a bureaucrat. They are here to save us, even if we were happier before.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3694

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

fafnir wrote: Does that match with the cellphone data? If they went back to town, presumably they would have come back into range of the cell towers?
IDK. It's been a while since I looked at this case, but the stuff I just came across tosses every previous assumption on its head.

We know the time of the 112/911 calls, but not their location.

I don't have the knowledge to assess the claims, based on file data, that certain photos were faked. But having worked professionally with Photoshop, a few of them look wrong. The photos in question show the girls from mid-leg or waist on up -- no feet. Other photos show them. Feet touching the ground, with proper shadows, is the hardest to fake.

Forged photos would require quite a bit of conspiracy. But Panama is corrupt, and it relies on tourism for a good chunk of revenue.

I have a lot of IRL shit do deal with right now, so I can't dive deep into this at the moment.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3695

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

Most 'unvaccinated' cases & deaths in Alberta, are actually among the jabbed within two weeks following the jab:

https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-a ... e-outcomes

alberta_deaths.jpeg
(390.82 KiB) Downloaded 127 times

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3696

Post by Lsuoma »

Gumby wrote:
Lsuoma wrote: OK, folks. I have decided to release - selectively - some of the FfTB back channel emails. Let me know if there are any subjects you're particularly interested in, and I'll se if there are any hot 'n' juicy nuggets. Can't promise, but let's take a looksee

As I said earlier, these are from late 2015 (not sure of the start date, but I have some 40,000 emails), but that was around the time FfTB jumped the shark.
Where? Where? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?
They are in a thread parallel to this one.

Keating
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3697

Post by Keating »

For Brive

Steersman
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3698

Post by Steersman »

fafnir wrote:
Steersman wrote: You might reflect on Hanlon's razor: "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."
Or Conquests 3rd law: "The behavior of any bureaucratic organization can best be understood by assuming that it is controlled by a secret cabal of its enemies."
Clever fellow:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Conquest

Quite a run too - 1917 to 2015 (98 years). Maybe both Gumby and I can look forward to over 30 years of retirement ... ;-)

Though apparently, he only referred to 2 laws, a fellow at National Review adding the third:
Conquest posited two laws of politics, apparently not referenced in any of his books but as observations he made in conversations while alive:
  • Generally speaking, everybody is reactionary on subjects he knows about.
  • Every organisation appears to be headed by secret agents of its opponents.
....

On 25 June 2003, John Derbyshire wrote in the National Review Online's blog The Corner that "[a]s best I can remember", Conquest conjectured three laws of politics:[48]
  • Everyone is conservative about what he knows best.
  • Any organization not explicitly right-wing sooner or later becomes left-wing.
  • The simplest way to explain the behavior of any bureaucratic organization is to assume that it is controlled by a cabal of its enemies.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3699

Post by Steersman »

Service Dog wrote:
Steersman wrote: Though "moron" is probably being charitable.

https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/edit ... 30727.html
You're parroting garbage.

Your Op-Ed link claims that-- because we know the dollar amount of Fauci's government salary-- his finances are fully 'available' and 'disclosed'.

In reality-- Marshall explicitly described to-Fauci-- the Congressional rules regarding the ownership & trading of stocks (and the requirement to obtain approval before conducting transactions above a certain dollar amount). He asked Fauci whether he would submit to a similar degree of scrutiny.

<snip>

Forbes published this update on their lawsuit to have Fauci's financial records revealed:

https://archive.fo/C8i0T
Ok, I'll concede you probably have a point there: either the left-hand doesn't know what the right is doing - pretty much always a safe bet when it comes to bureaucracies - and Fauci, as pure as the driven snow, doesn't realize that the CDC is dragging its heels out of ignorance or stubbornness or cluelessness; or the CDC or Fauci or both of them are as guilty as sin.

However, neither of the last 3 cases proves that either are guilty of pushing Covid policies and responses as a result of "financial irregularities".

Still, be worth keeping an eye on the efforts described in the Forbes article.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3700

Post by Service Dog »

Supreme Court struck down the OSHA vax mandate.

I read the prevailing opinion & the dissent. https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/2 ... 4_hgci.pdf

The former hewed so-closely to fundamental principles-- separation of powers, non-delegation of powers-- that it made the OSHA look absurd for attempting to claim authority in this matter:

"Under OSHA’s reading, the law would afford it almost unlimited discretion—and certainly impose no specific restrictions that meaningfully constrain the agency. .... OSHA would become little more than a “roving commission to inquire into evils and upon discovery correct them.”


The dissent relied heavily, and repetitively, on descriptions of how-bad Covid is, including multiple references to a CDC online "Data Tracker" link... dated November 2021. They chose to base their alarmism on fears from the moment Omicron was hyped/ not on how it actually transpired.

I found it unwise that they specifically named Omicron at-all. Better to treat 'Covid' as one big thing, and cite need to fight that one-big-thing... than to break Covid into segments & admit that the current pandemic we now face is not the same one as-when the OSHA rule was established. It's a pale shadow of it's former threat.

But nope, Breyer Sotomayor & Kagan named Omicron in-particular, and then proceed to publish a factually false statement about it:

"...unvaccinated employees of all ages face a substantially increased risk from COVID–19 as compared to their vaccinated peers."


This video from Dr. John Campbell shows that claim to be false. It is just one piece of great-news after-another-- about Covid & Omicron & natural immunity:


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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3701

Post by Steersman »

Matt Cavanaugh wrote: Most 'unvaccinated' cases & deaths in Alberta, are actually among the jabbed within two weeks following the jab:

https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-a ... e-outcomes


alberta_deaths.jpeg
Don't think that graph and those statistics mean quite what you think they mean.
Vaccine status category is based on protection. Doses administered within 14 days prior to a person’s COVID-19 diagnosis are not considered protective; as a result, partial or complete vaccination categories only include those identified as cases over 14 days past their first or second immunization date.
Also:
  • 65.1% of cases (209,083/321,061) since Jan 1, 2021 were unvaccinated or diagnosed within two weeks from the first dose immunization date
  • 78.6% of hospitalized cases (10,252/13,036) since Jan 1, 2021 were unvaccinated or diagnosed within two weeks from the first dose immunization date
  • 74.2% of COVID-19 deaths (1,362/1,836) since Jan 1, 2021 were unvaccinated or diagnosed within two weeks from the first dose immunization date
Though the ratios for hospitalized & deaths between the unvaccinated and the vaccinated - about 3:1 - doesn't seem terribly impressive. Increasing one's odds of not getting hospitalized due to, or surviving exposure to Covid by 3 to 1 is maybe nothing to sneeze at - so to speak. But - discounting the not insignificant effects of "long-covid", and the not inconsiderable impacts on the medical system which we all depend on - it is maybe moot whether the expense and disruption of mass vaccination policies is entirely justified.

But guess it kind of depends on how much of one's life - or those of other people one is attached to - one wants to gamble. Although the statistics are not easy to summarize and deal with, particularly in light of what is riding on them.

As kind of a check on those numbers, that site states that Alberta has a 73% vaccination rate in a population of 4 million so, as a very rough estimate, there were 10,252 cases of hospitalizations among the vaccinated - 2.92 million - while there was about the same number of cases (13,036) in a substantially smaller population (1.08 million). Which works about to about the same ratio [(13.0/1.08) / (10.2/2.92) = 3.55].

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3702

Post by fafnir »

Steersman wrote:
  • 65.1% of cases (209,083/321,061) since Jan 1, 2021 were unvaccinated or diagnosed within two weeks from the first dose immunization date
  • 78.6% of hospitalized cases (10,252/13,036) since Jan 1, 2021 were unvaccinated or diagnosed within two weeks from the first dose immunization date
  • 74.2% of COVID-19 deaths (1,362/1,836) since Jan 1, 2021 were unvaccinated or diagnosed within two weeks from the first dose immunization date
Though the ratios for hospitalized & deaths between the unvaccinated and the vaccinated - about 3:1 - doesn't seem terribly impressive. Increasing one's odds of not getting hospitalized due to, or surviving exposure to Covid by 3 to 1 is maybe nothing to sneeze at.[
How do you go from the ratio of cases to the odds here?

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3703

Post by fafnir »

Matt Cavanaugh wrote:
fafnir wrote: Does that match with the cellphone data? If they went back to town, presumably they would have come back into range of the cell towers?
IDK. It's been a while since I looked at this case, but the stuff I just came across tosses every previous assumption on its head.

We know the time of the 112/911 calls, but not their location.

I don't have the knowledge to assess the claims, based on file data, that certain photos were faked. But having worked professionally with Photoshop, a few of them look wrong. The photos in question show the girls from mid-leg or waist on up -- no feet. Other photos show them. Feet touching the ground, with proper shadows, is the hardest to fake.

Forged photos would require quite a bit of conspiracy. But Panama is corrupt, and it relies on tourism for a good chunk of revenue.
I agree there could be corruption and faked evidence here, but if that's the case.... do we believe the cell data, or the witness statements? That feels like an impenetrable barrier to knowing what happened.
Matt Cavanaugh wrote: I have a lot of IRL shit do deal with right now, so I can't dive deep into this at the moment.
No problem.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3704

Post by fafnir »

I just went over and had a read of the FTB backchannel snippets. What a bunch of boring, petty, micropenised wankers. Is it just 40,000 emails of backbiting office politics and moaning? No wonder Lsuoma was losing the will.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3705

Post by Steersman »

fafnir wrote:
Steersman wrote:
  • 65.1% of cases (209,083/321,061) since Jan 1, 2021 were unvaccinated or diagnosed within two weeks from the first dose immunization date
  • 78.6% of hospitalized cases (10,252/13,036) since Jan 1, 2021 were unvaccinated or diagnosed within two weeks from the first dose immunization date
  • 74.2% of COVID-19 deaths (1,362/1,836) since Jan 1, 2021 were unvaccinated or diagnosed within two weeks from the first dose immunization date
Though the ratios for hospitalized & deaths between the unvaccinated and the vaccinated - about 3:1 - doesn't seem terribly impressive. Increasing one's odds of not getting hospitalized due to, or surviving exposure to Covid by 3 to 1 is maybe nothing to sneeze at.[
How do you go from the ratio of cases to the odds here?
Guess I made a bit of a mistake there - mea culpa, shoot me at dawn ;-) . Think I misread the "(10,252/13,036)" as being the vaccinated and unvaccinated, respectively. Which is apparently what I based the closing - and erroneous - calculations on. Presumably, the phrasing means or suggests that 10,252 were unvaccinated while 13,036 were recently vaccinated.

However, it is still the case that, as far as the hospitalizations go, 78% of them are the unvaccinated and recently vaccinated while 22% are the vaccinated. Which works out to a 3.55 to 1 ratio. Similarly for the deaths (74.2/25.8= 2.88).

But, backtracking - taking another kick at the kitty, if 78.6% of the hospitalized cases (10,252+13,036=23,288) are the unvaccinated or recently vaccinated then that means that 100% of the hospitalizations consist of 29,628 cases. From which the vaccinated are 22% or 6,518 cases. And - mirabile dictu - 23,288 (unvaxed, recently vaxed) divided by 6,518 comes out to ratio of 3.57 to 1.

Looking at the total numbers again as a cross check, 6,518 hospitalizations out of 2.92 million vaccinated in the provincial population gives 2,232 (dropping the per-million multiplier) while 23,288 out of 1.08 million unvaxed and recently vaxed gives 21,562 (dropping the same per-million multiplier). So almost a 10 to 1 ratio - anywhere from 3.5 to 10 times less likely to get hospitalized if one is vaccinated.

Do let me know if you still think those numbers don't work out right ... ;-)

While I'm more or less happy that SCOTUS squashed the OSHA case - rather questionable "over-reach" at best, there's some evidence to justify thinking that some people are blowing smoke out of their arses if they are arguing that the unvaccinated are no more likely to wind up in the hospital or dead than the vaccinated because of Covid.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3706

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

Service Dog wrote: Supreme Court struck down the OSHA vax mandate.
But Roberts and Kavanaugh sided with the commies to uphold the jab mandate for federally-funded health care operations.

So frontline healthcare workers, who can see with their own eyes how the jab is affecting otherwise healthy young people, will continue to quit.

Valentina Boscardin: Double-Vaccinated 18-Year-Old Model Develops Blood Clots, Dies From “COVID-19”

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3707

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

Service Dog wrote: OSHA would become little more than a “roving commission to inquire into evils and upon discovery correct them.”
Nobody expects the OSHA!

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3708

Post by fafnir »

Steersman wrote: However, it is still the case that, as far as the hospitalizations go, 78% of them are the unvaccinated and recently vaccinated while 22% are the vaccinated. Which works out to a 3.55 to 1 ratio. Similarly for the deaths (74.2/25.8= 2.88).

But, backtracking - taking another kick at the kitty, if 78.6% of the hospitalized cases (10,252+13,036=23,288) are the unvaccinated or recently vaccinated then that means that 100% of the hospitalizations consist of 29,628 cases. From which the vaccinated are 22% or 6,518 cases. And - mirabile dictu - 23,288 (unvaxed, recently vaxed) divided by 6,518 comes out to ratio of 3.57 to 1.

Looking at the total numbers again as a cross check, 6,518 hospitalizations out of 2.92 million vaccinated in the provincial population gives 2,232 (dropping the per-million multiplier) while 23,288 out of 1.08 million unvaxed and recently vaxed gives 21,562 (dropping the same per-million multiplier). So almost a 10 to 1 ratio - anywhere from 3.5 to 10 times less likely to get hospitalized if one is vaccinated.
ok, but the ratios you are calculating are over the whole of 2021. For big chunks of 2021 very few people were vaccinated. Where are you getting the vaxed and unvaxed populations from? Even if your number is good, I don't see how you can use that to say anything about the ratio of vaxed to unvaxed hospitalisations and deaths given that the rate at which people were vaccinated was changing the whole time. Are you taking a point in time for the number of vaccination rate and then comparing that to the ratio of vaxed and unvaxed hospitalisations across the year? I don't understand what you are doing here.
Steersman wrote: Do let me know if you still think those numbers don't work out right ... ;-)
I don't think they work out right.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3709

Post by Steersman »

fafnir wrote:
Steersman wrote: However, it is still the case that, as far as the hospitalizations go, 78% of them are the unvaccinated and recently vaccinated while 22% are the vaccinated. Which works out to a 3.55 to 1 ratio. Similarly for the deaths (74.2/25.8= 2.88).

But, backtracking - taking another kick at the kitty, if 78.6% of the hospitalized cases (10,252+13,036=23,288) are the unvaccinated or recently vaccinated then that means that 100% of the hospitalizations consist of 29,628 cases. From which the vaccinated are 22% or 6,518 cases. And - mirabile dictu - 23,288 (unvaxed, recently vaxed) divided by 6,518 comes out to ratio of 3.57 to 1.

Looking at the total numbers again as a cross check, 6,518 hospitalizations out of 2.92 million vaccinated in the provincial population gives 2,232 (dropping the per-million multiplier) while 23,288 out of 1.08 million unvaxed and recently vaxed gives 21,562 (dropping the same per-million multiplier). So almost a 10 to 1 ratio - anywhere from 3.5 to 10 times less likely to get hospitalized if one is vaccinated.
ok, but the ratios you are calculating are over the whole of 2021. For big chunks of 2021 very few people were vaccinated. Where are you getting the vaxed and unvaxed populations from? Even if your number is good, I don't see how you can use that to say anything about the ratio of vaxed to unvaxed hospitalisations and deaths given that the rate at which people were vaccinated was changing the whole time. Are you taking a point in time for the number of vaccination rate and then comparing that to the ratio of vaxed and unvaxed hospitalisations across the year? I don't understand what you are doing here.
More or less agree: given that the percentage of people vaccinated/unvaccinated at any given time was changing continuously, it is maybe a bit of a stretch to calculate that "10 times" number". Partly why I put the ratio as "3.5 to 10 times".

However, it is still the case - to a first approximation - that 75 out of every 100 cases of hospitalizations (and deaths) were among the unvaccinated or recently vaccinated, while the balance of 25 were among the vaccinated. Those numbers don't change - only the susceptibility rates do, those dependent on the sizes of the different populations being exposed. Populations which, as you correctly point out, have changed substantially over that one year interval.

Somewhat analogously, if you're rolling a pair of fair dice, and are allowed to roll them 4 or 5 dozen times then your odds of getting snake-eyes - a pair or ones - at least once is probably substantially better than those of getting an even number total if you're only allowed to roll them once. The total number of cases is a function of the number of times you roll the dice, and the underlying odds of the combination you're looking for - or are looking to avoid.

Though not quite sure offhand how to calculate those odds exactly, but they seem about right.
fafnir wrote:
Steersman wrote: Do let me know if you still think those numbers don't work out right ... ;-)
I don't think they work out right.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics. ;-)

Think I mentioned earlier something from Michael Shermer's The Believing Brain - highly recommended:
Part of the problem may be that 70 percent of Americans still do not understand the scientific process, defined in the NSF study as grasping probability, the experimental method, and hypothesis testing.
That inability in "grasping probability", and the problems that follow from it, is rather ubiquitous. Though, as I've suggested, many aspects of probability are rather "counter-intuitive" at best.

Bhurzum
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3710

Post by Bhurzum »

Drooling over women = sexism!

Not drooling over women = an outrage!



"The wall" is a bitch!
:P

fafnir
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3711

Post by fafnir »

Steersman wrote: However, it is still the case - to a first approximation - that 75 out of every 100 cases of hospitalizations (and deaths) were among the unvaccinated or recently vaccinated, while the balance of 25 were among the vaccinated. Those numbers don't change - only the susceptibility rates do, those dependent on the sizes of the different populations being exposed. Populations which, as you correctly point out, have changed substantially over that one year interval.
This is one of the two ways that the media most commonly lies about Covid at the moment. Lots of the deaths occurred towards the beginning of 2021 when practically nobody was vaccinated. By taking the deaths and hospitalisations over the course of the year and then speaking in the present tense about it, they inflate the benefit of the vaccines.

What they also do is quote random hospital administrator, or nurse giving their subjective impression about what is going on at their hospital. Probably after they tell their story, their 5 year old asks them why people don't just take the vaccine and everybody claps. All the while there are actual stats that show what the current skew of hospitalisations and deaths are amongst the vaccinated and unvaccinated. Weirdly they always seem to find random nobody's to ask about random hospitals who are seeing the unvaccinated dropping in far greater numbers than the average.

Steersman wrote: Think I mentioned earlier something from Michael Shermer's The Believing Brain - highly recommended:
He was the subject of the rape panic at the JREF that finally woke me up to what bed hopping, alcoholic, lunatic degenerates they all were.

Apples
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3712

Post by Apples »

Wat's up, everybotty? It's been awhile :hankey:

Got a lil catching up to do.

fafnir
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3713

Post by fafnir »

Apples wrote: Wat's up, everybotty? It's been awhile :hankey:

Got a lil catching up to do.
Stick to the posts discussing the definition of female and associated metaphysics. Nothing else was worth bothering with.

John D
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3714

Post by John D »

Bhurzum wrote: Drooling over women = sexism!

Not drooling over women = an outrage!



"The wall" is a bitch!
:P
Yeah - would she date a person like me? 5 foot 8. Middle class. Small dick. 20 pounds over weight.

Yeah. didn't think so.

Fuck off bitch.... you are just trying to get some popularity back... and get a bunch of other bitches to tell you how brave you are. Fuck off!

Bhurzum
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3715

Post by Bhurzum »

John D wrote: Yeah - would she date a person like me? 5 foot 8. Middle class. Small dick. 20 pounds over weight.

Yeah. didn't think so.

Fuck off bitch.... you are just trying to get some popularity back... and get a bunch of other bitches to tell you how brave you are. Fuck off!
Heh.

Don't hold back, John, speak your mind!

:lol:

Matt Cavanaugh
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3716

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

Apologies to Tom of Finland, but how about some Samantha Fish on Friday?


Matt Cavanaugh
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3717

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

John D wrote: Fuck off bitch.... you are just trying to get some popularity back... and get a bunch of other bitches to tell you how brave you are. Fuck off!
Cut her some slack. Now that she can't get any modeling work because she's in her late fifties, she's decided to devote all that free time to important social justice causes. Like whining about how women in their fifties can't get any modeling work.

But seriously, bitch -- you continue to immerse yourself in a subculture that fetishizes barely post-pubescent females, and you're shocked that all the quasi-straight men in that subculture are only dogging barely post-pubescent females?

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3718

Post by Lsuoma »

fafnir wrote:
Apples wrote: Wat's up, everybotty? It's been awhile :hankey:

Got a lil catching up to do.
Stick to the posts discussing the definition of female and associated metaphysics. Nothing else was worth bothering with.
What about the fiendish world conspiracy to kill everyone by scaring them to death with 'rona, and preventing them from chowing down on Equvalan???

There have been zero cases, and minus 2000 brazillion excess deaths in reality. And Trump won the election by 500 zillion votes.

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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3719

Post by Lsuoma »

Matt Cavanaugh wrote:
John D wrote: Fuck off bitch.... you are just trying to get some popularity back... and get a bunch of other bitches to tell you how brave you are. Fuck off!
Cut her some slack. Now that she can't get any modeling work because she's in her late fifties, she's decided to devote all that free time to important social justice causes. Like whining about how women in their fifties can't get any modeling work.

But seriously, bitch -- you continue to immerse yourself in a subculture that fetishizes barely post-pubescent females, and you're shocked that all the quasi-straight men in that subculture are only dogging barely post-pubescent females?
Dogging means something entirely different in the UK...

fafnir
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Re: Steerzing in a New Direction...

#3720

Post by fafnir »

Lsuoma wrote: What about the fiendish world conspiracy to kill everyone by scaring them to death with 'rona, and preventing them from chowing down on Equvalan???

There have been zero cases, and minus 2000 brazillion excess deaths in reality. And Trump won the election by 500 zillion votes.
All of these problems stem from having given women the vote, and hence are digressions from the conversation about the definition of female.

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