You is all a bunch of poofs!

Old subthreads
KiwiInOz
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10381

Post by KiwiInOz »

jugheadnaut wrote: snip

I see. So your response had nothing to do with the paper or Lomborg's tweet, it was just a chance to lob a grade school epithet on someone you have a fantasyland opinion of. And doing work to 'suggest that actions are overreactions' (i.e. cost benefit analysis) is crucial when laughable climate alarmism untethered to any scientific underpinnings is routinely proclaimed by activists and signal boosted by credulous media.
I'm sorry, I must have mistaken this site of erudite intellectual discourse for the Slyme Pit.

Yes that is an interesting (non peer reviewed) ongoing analysis of data as it is received. The real population level CFR and IFR won't be known until sometime down the track. At the moment we have a virus that is highly transmissible, with a high proportion of the population that may be asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic but still vectors of transmission, and a smaller proportion of the population that are susceptible or highly susceptible.

What was Lomborg's purpose in highlighting "a presumed estimate for COVID-19 IFR somewhere between 0.1% and 0.36%"? I argue that he is being mischievous, hence my reference to the trickster of Norse mythology. He has form in underplaying risk i complex systems in order to promote a contrarian or, contrarily, an establishment status quo, view.

Brive1987
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Posts: 17791
Joined: Mon Aug 19, 2013 4:16 am

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10382

Post by Brive1987 »

free thoughtpolice wrote:
Brive1987 wrote: The Pit is nothing if not trad.

....

Dems have scored an own goal.

Oh boo fucking hoo
Show us on the doll where Nancy Pelosi gave you a bad touch.
Mine was a tactical observation

Yours was simply extraordinary.

KiwiInOz
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Posts: 5425
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10383

Post by KiwiInOz »

Brive1987 wrote:
free thoughtpolice wrote: snip
Mine was a tactical observation

Yours was simply extraordinary.
That's high praise for FTP. I'm impressed that you've conceded so humbly.

Brive1987
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10384

Post by Brive1987 »

KiwiInOz wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:47 pm
Brive1987 wrote:
free thoughtpolice wrote: snip
Mine was a tactical observation

Yours was simply extraordinary.
That's high praise for FTP. I'm impressed that you've conceded so humbly.
The word is neutral.

“ beyond what is usual, ordinary, regular, or established “

You are free to infer in which direction. Am I not magnanimous?

Brive1987
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10385

Post by Brive1987 »

Virgin “Australia” has gone bust with Branson braying for a tax payer bailout.
HNA Group* also holds a 19.9 per cent stage Virgin Australia — along with China’s Nanshan Group with its 20 per cent. Virgin Australia’s others shareholders include Singapore Airlines (20 per cent), Bahrain’s Etihad Airlines (21 per cent) and an arm of the Virgin Group (10 per cent) as shareholders.
* where HNA Group Co is a Chinese conglomerate headquartered in Haikou, Hainan, China.

He has a big mouth for 10%. We should of course pony up the funds.

On condition we nationalise it. Or we could sell it to the Chinese. Or rather, the portion they don’t already own.

KiwiInOz
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10386

Post by KiwiInOz »

Brive1987 wrote:
KiwiInOz wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:47 pm
Brive1987 wrote:
free thoughtpolice wrote: snip
Mine was a tactical observation

Yours was simply extraordinary.
That's high praise for FTP. I'm impressed that you've conceded so humbly.
The word is neutral.

“ beyond what is usual, ordinary, regular, or established “

You are free to infer in which direction. Am I not magnanimous?

Phil_Giordana_FCD
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10387

Post by Phil_Giordana_FCD »

Happy to say our video premiere went very well. No Bhurzum in sight, though, or maybe with a different nick...

ThreeFlangedJavis
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Posts: 2181
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10388

Post by ThreeFlangedJavis »

jugheadnaut wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:01 pm
KiwiInOz wrote:
jugheadnaut wrote:
KiwiInOz wrote:
What fucknuts doesn't acknowledge is the IFR in the absence of doing something.
The white paper makes scant mention of the global shutdown, and the shutdown doesn't contribute to the estimates it gives. I fail to see why, in a Tweet where Lomborg is merely sharing and quoting from the paper without elaboration, he should be acknowledging something that's not in the paper. The paper discusses issues related to the estimation of IFR (which is a useful statistic, but not directly measurable) from CFR (which is a directly measurable statistic, but not particularly useful due to sample bias).

The main purpose of the shutdown is to reduce the rate of infections, not reduce IFR. IFR is largely independent of these efforts, except that reducing the rate of infections will keep health care systems from going over-capacity and limit deaths due to lack of medical intervention.
Wot I meant to say.

Because, as you probably well know, Lomborg sees himself as Loki incarnate, a trickster who likes to use numbers to suggest that actions are overreactions.
I see. So your response had nothing to do with the paper or Lomborg's tweet, it was just a chance to lob a grade school epithet on someone you have a fantasyland opinion of. And doing work to 'suggest that actions are overreactions' (i.e. cost benefit analysis) is crucial when laughable climate alarmism untethered to any scientific underpinnings is routinely proclaimed by activists and signal boosted by credulous media.
Lomberg has a history which suggests that he is not sincere. His position on global warming has shifted with the winds. He started out parroting straight up denialist talking points and his position shifted as the money supply became endangered. As just one example of his trickery, take a look at Potholer's analysis of Lomberg's claims about electric cars where he demonstrates how Lomberg compares apples to oranges to reach his conclusions. Lomberg is too clever to have done this unknowingly. It is quite appropriate to point out his history because he has demonstrated that he is not acting in good faith. While it is obviously worth checking the validity of information that he mentions, it is certainly worth pointing out to the unwary that nothing he says should be taken at face value. Trickster is an appropriate word for him. From what I've seen, I think he is driven more by money and fame than by ideology and he does whatever is necessary to keep himself in the limelight.

screwtape
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10389

Post by screwtape »

free thoughtpolice wrote: I wonder if cariee gets the basket of links joke?
Ze may not be familiar with the Atheist + forum.
cariee appears to be a spammer here only to shove her video site in our faces. She, he or it may be a bot, and unprogrammed for puns.

screwtape
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10390

Post by screwtape »

I this thread is >10,000 posts long. Previously threads that long caused all sorts of instability. The hydrocodone-fuelled upgrade must be doing something good.

Matt Cavanaugh
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10391

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

free thoughtpolice wrote:
Brive1987 wrote:
Dems have scored an own goal.

Oh boo fucking hoo
Show us on the doll where Nancy Pelosi gave you a bad touch.
It's not just that Pelosi spent ten times on her fridge what I did on my truck, or twenty times the measly relief check I still haven't gotten. Or that she can drop more on a pint of ice cream than I can for a case of beer. I know the elite do shit like that on a daily basis. And there will be elite always, acquiring more wealth than they deserve, frivolously wasting it, then rigging the system to acquire more.

What makes this so bad is Pelosi actually thought flaunting her excess on national TV would make for a great morale booster for the Lumpenproletariat suffering under the lock-down. It highlights just how callously out-of-touch the liberal elite are with the rest of America. Forget Biden's many weaknesses; after this clueless display, no Dem could beat Trump. Further, it will tarnish every Dem running in November. Whatever broad scale damage the Party avoided by jettisoning Bernie's socialism, this stuck-up, pampered, old hag just brought down on it an equal amount. And so, yeah, Nancy Antoinette did directly and tangibly hurt me.

MarcusAu
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10392

Post by MarcusAu »

screwtape wrote: She, he or it may be a bot, and unprogrammed for puns.
Your anti-AI prejudice borders on the offensive.

I found the Mrs to be amusing, felt some sympathy for the Mr, but Violet Elizabeth was definitely a bit too much to take.

Matt Cavanaugh
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10393

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

Brive1987 wrote: The word is neutral.

“ beyond what is usual, ordinary, regular, or established “

You are free to infer in which direction. Am I not magnanimous?
Merciful, even.


Driftless
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Posts: 533
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:13 am

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10394

Post by Driftless »

Matt Cavanaugh wrote:
free thoughtpolice wrote:
Brive1987 wrote:
Dems have scored an own goal.

Oh boo fucking hoo
Show us on the doll where Nancy Pelosi gave you a bad touch.
It's not just that Pelosi spent ten times on her fridge what I did on my truck, or twenty times the measly relief check I still haven't gotten. Or that she can drop more on a pint of ice cream than I can for a case of beer. I know the elite do shit like that on a daily basis. And there will be elite always, acquiring more wealth than they deserve, frivolously wasting it, then rigging the system to acquire more.

What makes this so bad is Pelosi actually thought flaunting her excess on national TV would make for a great morale booster for the Lumpenproletariat suffering under the lock-down. It highlights just how callously out-of-touch the liberal elite are with the rest of America. Forget Biden's many weaknesses; after this clueless display, no Dem could beat Trump. Further, it will tarnish every Dem running in November. Whatever broad scale damage the Party avoided by jettisoning Bernie's socialism, this stuck-up, pampered, old hag just brought down on it an equal amount. And so, yeah, Nancy Antoinette did directly and tangibly hurt me.
It was just asking for this ad. It reinforces the idea that the "elites" are out of touch. It is something so obvious that I can only conclude that she *is* out of touch. And that doesn't hurt me at all.

screwtape
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Posts: 2713
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10395

Post by screwtape »

MarcusAu wrote:
screwtape wrote: She, he or it may be a bot, and unprogrammed for puns.
Your anti-AI prejudice borders on the offensive.

I found the Mrs to be amusing, felt some sympathy for the Mr, but Violet Elizabeth was definitely a bit too much to take.
I don't mind if you drop your aitches, but don't drop a T for goodness' sake.

And a random thought that conturbat me: since Muslim grooming gangs are now an accepted fact in the UK, and evidently so well entrenched that we may not be permitted to see the Home Office report upon them, how come we haven't begun to hear reports of similar behaviours elsewhere? It might be that the grooming gang phenomenon is a peculiarity confined to Britain. But if it is not, when will the other shoe drop in Canada, the USA and Australia and anywhere else with large immigrant populations from Pakistan?

free thoughtpolice
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10396

Post by free thoughtpolice »

Matt Cavanaugh wrote:
Forget Biden's many weaknesses; after this clueless display, no Dem could beat Trump.
Maybe. Maybe it will make the dems more attractive to the voters that were dazzled by Trump flaunting and bragging about his wealth.
As a rich socialist and a member of the elite I think I might just run out and buy some of that ice cream even though I don't eat much ice cream. I'll get back to you and tell you how delicious it is. :P

Matt Cavanaugh
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10397

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

free thoughtpolice wrote: As a rich socialist and a member of the elite I think I might just run out and buy some of that ice cream even though I don't eat much ice cream. I'll get back to you and tell you how delicious it is. :P
Don't wander too far into your Sub-Zero. You might get lost and freeze to death.

KiwiInOz
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Posts: 5425
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10398

Post by KiwiInOz »

Phil_Giordana_FCD wrote: Happy to say our video premiere went very well. No Bhurzum in sight, though, or maybe with a different nick...
I was in bed, so missed it. Is it available as a recording?

Lsuoma
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10399

Post by Lsuoma »

screwtape wrote:
free thoughtpolice wrote: I wonder if cariee gets the basket of links joke?
Ze may not be familiar with the Atheist + forum.
cariee appears to be a spammer here only to shove her video site in our faces. She, he or it may be a bot, and unprogrammed for puns.
I ALMOST banned her before activation, but gave the benefit of the doubt. Since when I glanced at it the video site didn't appear to be too outrageous, I didn't ban on her first post, which was a bit triggering. One more content-free push like that, and it's blocklist time.

ConcentratedH2O, OM
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Posts: 6555
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10400

Post by ConcentratedH2O, OM »

Phil, that sounds and looks really good.

Great job y'all.


Bhurzum
Brassy, uncouth, henpecked meathead
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10401

Post by Bhurzum »

Phil_Giordana_FCD wrote: Happy to say our video premiere went very well. No Bhurzum in sight, though, or maybe with a different nick...
Ah, sorry, Phil, I've been a wee bit poorly over the past 48 hours. Nothing serious, just a screwy body-clock and a bit of a temp.

Bhurzum
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10402

Post by Bhurzum »

As already stated (on twatter), this reminds me of my first night home (with der frau) after 6 months deployment...


jugheadnaut
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Posts: 1495
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10403

Post by jugheadnaut »

ThreeFlangedJavis wrote:
Lomberg has a history which suggests that he is not sincere. His position on global warming has shifted with the winds. He started out parroting straight up denialist talking points and his position shifted as the money supply became endangered. As just one example of his trickery, take a look at Potholer's analysis of Lomberg's claims about electric cars where he demonstrates how Lomberg compares apples to oranges to reach his conclusions. Lomberg is too clever to have done this unknowingly. It is quite appropriate to point out his history because he has demonstrated that he is not acting in good faith. While it is obviously worth checking the validity of information that he mentions, it is certainly worth pointing out to the unwary that nothing he says should be taken at face value. Trickster is an appropriate word for him. From what I've seen, I think he is driven more by money and fame than by ideology and he does whatever is necessary to keep himself in the limelight.
I distinctly recall the time when he first popped up on the scene with his 'The Skeptical Environmentalist' book, and he definitely wasn't using 'denialist talking points'. He was carefully, and I'm sure you would say disingenuously, playing up the environmentalist part of the title, saying he had no issues with the scientific conclusions of the time and agreed global warming was a serious problem to be taken seriously. His main issues at the time were with environmental activist exaggerations and poorly thought out public policy proposals. As far as I've seen, he hasn't shifted, although I haven't heard much from him in the last few years.

I had seen the Potholer video previously (and just re-viewed it now). I agree that Lomborg's electric car piece, which I believe originated as a 200 word USA Today op-ed which was translated to a 5 minute Praeger U. video, was not good. I don't see convincing evidence of bad faith, though. I think the problem was that both formats leave zero room for discussion of nuance. For instance, Potholer accuses Lomborg of cherry picking for choosing a high fuel efficiency diesel for comparison to electric cars, but it seems completely justified to compare the most efficient ICE car for comparison. A typical electric vehicle buyer is obviously motivated by reducing emissions so they're not deciding between a Tesla and a Mustang. They're deciding between an electric vehicle and the lowest emission ICE vehicle they can find. Potholer also hits him up for using the low end of the emissions savings range when making the comparison. While I don't like this, it's fair to say absolutely everyone trying to make a point in a constrained space chooses the end of a range most compatible with their argument, most notably in every climate change activist opinion piece ever written. While Potholer acknowledges Lomborg is correctly citing a paper concluding electric vehicles cost more lives than gas fueled vehicles due to environmental damage, he accuses him of cherry picking for using the comparison that assumes the current mix of electrical grid power production, pointing out that if the grid shifted to more natural gas production, electric vehicles would be superior in this comparison. But in a short piece, I don't see any issue with going with what's currently true (at least in the US), rather than a hypothetical. However, if Lomborg had a longer-form piece on this issue, and didn't discuss these nuances, I would agree it was bad-faith.

Where I do see bad faith and trickiness, however, is in Lomborg's treatment by environmental activists over his career. The Skeptical Environmentalist was a best seller, and even received good reviews in sources such as the NYT and Washington Post, so he was seen as a major problem who needed to be discredited. Scientific American's 'Science Defends Itself from Bjorn Lomborg' piece was typical. Firstly, there's the well-poisoning nonsense that ideas conflicting with prevailing opinion necessarily were an attack on science that needed defending (with this sort of thinking, they would have had a 'Science Defends itself from Alfred Wegener' a century earlier. The actual articles generally accused him of dishonesty without including any specifics. Differences in interpretation were treated as deception, and procedural standards that are employed only for pre-publication scientific research papers, which no popular science book would ever pass, were used to discredit the book. I canceled my SA subscription at the time over this, even though I was more on Team Global Warming at the time. I wouldn't pick it up again to line a birdcage.

Phil_Giordana_FCD
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10404

Post by Phil_Giordana_FCD »

ConcentratedH2O, OM wrote: Phil, that sounds and looks really good.

Great job y'all.

*Snip horrible picture*
Why? Why?!? What did I ever do to you?

Matt Cavanaugh
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10405

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

YA annoying illustrated children's book self-published by an annoying humanist -- her dad:

Elle the Humanist | Children's Book on Diversity & Ethics

A warm introduction to humanism and ethics through the eyes of a nine-year-old.


Elle promises to the be Greta Thunberg of sanctimonious secularism.

With a forward by Doddering Daniel Dennet and glowing blurbs from Hemant Mehta, a.k.a., The Pissy Atheist, and the directors of the PUA SSA and the polyfuckerist Camp Quest.

I'd buy a copy, but I already spent my atheist book allowance on "A Skeptic's Guide to Islam"

free thoughtpolice
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Posts: 11165
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10406

Post by free thoughtpolice »

Word has it Kim Jong Un may be dangerously ill.

Lsuoma
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10407

Post by Lsuoma »

Rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated...

free thoughtpolice
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Posts: 11165
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10408

Post by free thoughtpolice »

Covid19 cabin fever prompts me to post this.

ConcentratedH2O, OM
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Posts: 6555
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2012 8:51 pm

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10409

Post by ConcentratedH2O, OM »

Phil_Giordana_FCD wrote:
ConcentratedH2O, OM wrote: Phil, that sounds and looks really good.

Great job y'all.

*Snip horrible picture*
Why? Why?!? What did I ever do to you?
Seriously, I loved it.

Driftless
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Posts: 533
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:13 am

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10410

Post by Driftless »

free thoughtpolice wrote: Covid19 cabin fever prompts me to post this.
https://louandpeter.com/track/891312/in ... s-handbook

Indoorsmen everywhere listen to me
I'm writing a book that you might want to see
Available soon at your favorite store
On the dangerous game of survival indoors
I'm sure you've all heard of the outdoorsman's guide
Which is handy to have if you spend time outside
But if I'm not at home I am inside a bar
And I'm only outside when I crawl to my car

CHORUS: The Indoorsman's Handbook is perfect in jail
The Indoorsman's Handbook soon printed in Braille
The Indoorsman's Handbook will keep you alive
For the crazy low price of $14.95

It covers things you ain't thought of before
Like the seven best angles to stare at the floor
And to make a room seem like it isn't too small
You never should walk, you always should crawl
[...]

Keating
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Posts: 2421
Joined: Fri Apr 10, 2015 3:18 pm
Location: South of anteater guy

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10411

Post by Keating »

Lsuoma wrote: Rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated...
But not by much

free thoughtpolice
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Posts: 11165
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10412

Post by free thoughtpolice »

Driftless wrote:
free thoughtpolice wrote: Covid19 cabin fever prompts me to post this.
https://louandpeter.com/track/891312/in ... s-handbook

Indoorsmen everywhere listen to me
I'm writing a book that you might want to see
Available soon at your favorite store
On the dangerous game of survival indoors
I'm sure you've all heard of the outdoorsman's guide
Which is handy to have if you spend time outside
But if I'm not at home I am inside a bar
And I'm only outside when I crawl to my car

CHORUS: The Indoorsman's Handbook is perfect in jail
The Indoorsman's Handbook soon printed in Braille
The Indoorsman's Handbook will keep you alive
For the crazy low price of $14.95

It covers things you ain't thought of before
Like the seven best angles to stare at the floor
And to make a room seem like it isn't too small
You never should walk, you always should crawl
[...]
That's pretty good! Who is the author?

Driftless
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Posts: 533
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:13 am

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10413

Post by Driftless »

free thoughtpolice wrote:
Driftless wrote:
free thoughtpolice wrote: Covid19 cabin fever prompts me to post this.
https://louandpeter.com/track/891312/in ... s-handbook

Indoorsmen everywhere listen to me
I'm writing a book that you might want to see
Available soon at your favorite store
On the dangerous game of survival indoors
I'm sure you've all heard of the outdoorsman's guide
Which is handy to have if you spend time outside
But if I'm not at home I am inside a bar
And I'm only outside when I crawl to my car

CHORUS: The Indoorsman's Handbook is perfect in jail
The Indoorsman's Handbook soon printed in Braille
The Indoorsman's Handbook will keep you alive
For the crazy low price of $14.95

It covers things you ain't thought of before
Like the seven best angles to stare at the floor
And to make a room seem like it isn't too small
You never should walk, you always should crawl
[...]
That's pretty good! Who is the author?
Lou and Peter Berryman (or Peter and Lou Berryman).

https://louandpeter.com/home

They also wrote Are You Drinking With Me Jesus:

Do you nestle by my barstool
Making me so calm within
Have you touched me with your warmness
Or have I touched myself with gin?

CHORUS:Are you drinking with me Jesus
I can't see you very clear
If you're drinking with me Jesus
Won't you buy a friend a beer

[...]

Service Dog
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Posts: 8652
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10414

Post by Service Dog »


KiwiInOz
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Posts: 5425
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10415

Post by KiwiInOz »

jugheadnaut wrote:
ThreeFlangedJavis wrote:
Lomberg has a history which suggests that he is not sincere. His position on global warming has shifted with the winds. He started out parroting straight up denialist talking points and his position shifted as the money supply became endangered. As just one example of his trickery, take a look at Potholer's analysis of Lomberg's claims about electric cars where he demonstrates how Lomberg compares apples to oranges to reach his conclusions. Lomberg is too clever to have done this unknowingly. It is quite appropriate to point out his history because he has demonstrated that he is not acting in good faith. While it is obviously worth checking the validity of information that he mentions, it is certainly worth pointing out to the unwary that nothing he says should be taken at face value. Trickster is an appropriate word for him. From what I've seen, I think he is driven more by money and fame than by ideology and he does whatever is necessary to keep himself in the limelight.
I distinctly recall the time when he first popped up on the scene with his 'The Skeptical Environmentalist' book, and he definitely wasn't using 'denialist talking points'. He was carefully, and I'm sure you would say disingenuously, playing up the environmentalist part of the title, saying he had no issues with the scientific conclusions of the time and agreed global warming was a serious problem to be taken seriously. His main issues at the time were with environmental activist exaggerations and poorly thought out public policy proposals. As far as I've seen, he hasn't shifted, although I haven't heard much from him in the last few years.

I had seen the Potholer video previously (and just re-viewed it now). I agree that Lomborg's electric car piece, which I believe originated as a 200 word USA Today op-ed which was translated to a 5 minute Praeger U. video, was not good. I don't see convincing evidence of bad faith, though. I think the problem was that both formats leave zero room for discussion of nuance. For instance, Potholer accuses Lomborg of cherry picking for choosing a high fuel efficiency diesel for comparison to electric cars, but it seems completely justified to compare the most efficient ICE car for comparison. A typical electric vehicle buyer is obviously motivated by reducing emissions so they're not deciding between a Tesla and a Mustang. They're deciding between an electric vehicle and the lowest emission ICE vehicle they can find. Potholer also hits him up for using the low end of the emissions savings range when making the comparison. While I don't like this, it's fair to say absolutely everyone trying to make a point in a constrained space chooses the end of a range most compatible with their argument, most notably in every climate change activist opinion piece ever written. While Potholer acknowledges Lomborg is correctly citing a paper concluding electric vehicles cost more lives than gas fueled vehicles due to environmental damage, he accuses him of cherry picking for using the comparison that assumes the current mix of electrical grid power production, pointing out that if the grid shifted to more natural gas production, electric vehicles would be superior in this comparison. But in a short piece, I don't see any issue with going with what's currently true (at least in the US), rather than a hypothetical. However, if Lomborg had a longer-form piece on this issue, and didn't discuss these nuances, I would agree it was bad-faith.

Where I do see bad faith and trickiness, however, is in Lomborg's treatment by environmental activists over his career. The Skeptical Environmentalist was a best seller, and even received good reviews in sources such as the NYT and Washington Post, so he was seen as a major problem who needed to be discredited. Scientific American's 'Science Defends Itself from Bjorn Lomborg' piece was typical. Firstly, there's the well-poisoning nonsense that ideas conflicting with prevailing opinion necessarily were an attack on science that needed defending (with this sort of thinking, they would have had a 'Science Defends itself from Alfred Wegener' a century earlier. The actual articles generally accused him of dishonesty without including any specifics. Differences in interpretation were treated as deception, and procedural standards that are employed only for pre-publication scientific research papers, which no popular science book would ever pass, were used to discredit the book. I canceled my SA subscription at the time over this, even though I was more on Team Global Warming at the time. I wouldn't pick it up again to line a birdcage.
You almost make me feel sorry for him. :D

I did read the The SkepEnv back in the day but haven't picked it up since then.

I don't have time for a longer discussion just now, so just acknowledging what you've written.

CBA can be a useful tool for making investment decisions in the private sector, but I think that it is less useful in guiding decisions in dealing with complex systems or Government decisions because of the assumptions and multidimensionality required.

I am interested in the policies that you think would be useful in reducing our GHG emissions or for moving to net neutral. Maybe we'll argue over a beer one day. As for me, I'm off to work on a proposal for a regional renewable energy hub that would include gasification of agricultural biomass to produce syngas for electricity generation and biochar for agricultural/industrial use (and atmospheric carbon sequestration).

Bhurzum
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10416

Post by Bhurzum »

Ignoring the "science man bad" tweeter, this is jaw-dropping.



I'm kinda 50/50 on the whole "playing god" thing but if it saves lives, I'm all for it.

John D
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Posts: 5966
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 4:23 am
Location: Detroit, MI. USA

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10417

Post by John D »

Bhurzum wrote: Ignoring the "science man bad" tweeter, this is jaw-dropping.



I'm kinda 50/50 on the whole "playing god" thing but if it saves lives, I'm all for it.
That is amazing.... and it make perfect sense that this could help preemies. They are not trying to "grow" a fetus from early in pregnancy, they are just trying to give the premature babies a few more weeks to ripen up. My nephew was born at 22 weeks. This is really early, almost at the point when he would not survive. They put him right in an incubator. It stands to reason that if you could delay the kickoff of systems, such as the lungs, that it might help. He has many many problems. He has had many surgeries and has mental development issues. That put the tiny babies on respirators. The tube damaged his vocal chords so badly that he can hardly talk. They did some reconstruction of his vocal chords and it helped a bit. He has it very tough.

Service Dog
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Posts: 8652
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 2:52 pm

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10418

Post by Service Dog »

I walked to my credit union today. Found out it's closed on alternating-days.

I'm used-to the mostly-empty streets within dogwalking-distance of my home. But-- we have a lot of homeless & general lowlifes who don't comply.
And steady foot & bike traffic-- over the bridge to Brooklyn.

But the credit union is in the East Village, and from-there I walked thru Chinatown & Little Italy,
to my PO Box in Tribeca. Seeing those neighborhoods empty-- gave me chills.

Each neighborhood is a zip code-- which probably generates as much daily commerce-- as some state capitol cities.
(Topeka Kansas, maybe?) NYC's GDP is $1.5 Trillion/ year. Harrowing.

Saw slim older guy with tousled white hair-- Bill Nye type-- in a Sherlock Holmes deerstalker hat. With the dismembered sleeve of a pale blue dress shirt as a mask. The cuff over his mouth, strapped-on via the cufflink holes, sleeve hanging down like a beard or necktie. He wore a tan corduroy blazer and pants cut short. Showing ankles above beat-up loafers. An Ivy League Gyrocopter pilot. Most post-apocalyptic sight I've seen.

In the midwestern town where I grew-up-- half the state's covid cases are workers in a single meat packing plant. Which stayed open, even as employees died. The governor said it was necessary they stay open-- otherwise pigs would have to be euthanized. Workers said the she seemed to care more about the pigs than them.

Weeks ago, I went thru an anxious stage-- of trying to foresee how bad & crazy the world was about-to get. Then I got used to things being like this.
Today's walk shook me up, again.

fuzzy
Pit Art Master
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Posts: 2215
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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10419

Post by fuzzy »

So yeah four or five months ago I spun off a thread where I thought I might share my legal foo-farah which I expectorated at the time might happen soon, but which didn't by a couple of months, then a couple more months, and now another five months for the ching-chong. I'm full of interesting stories, but discretion dictates that narratives about open cases are to be discouraged. Fully 27 mumphs will have passed between between arrest and currently scheduled final hearing and theoretical trial, should it even happen this time around. Fortunately, fuzzy's google-fu was up to the task, and he found exculpating evidence on the interwebs about a year ago, so theoretically all delays since then have been for the purpose of the state bureau investigating the fraud which was carried out against fuzzy, and we pretend in good faith that we are waiving speedy trial so that these good things can happen for us. Meanwhile fuzzy remains on the assembly line marching toward a felony B which if fully carried out carries a penalty of five-to-twenty, awaiting the mighty orgasm of justice. Until at least September, the balls remain blueish.

free thoughtpolice
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Posts: 11165
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10420

Post by free thoughtpolice »

fuzzy wrote: So yeah four or five months ago I spun off a thread where I thought I might share my legal foo-farah which I expectorated at the time might happen soon, but which didn't by a couple of months, then a couple more months, and now another five months for the ching-chong. I'm full of interesting stories, but discretion dictates that narratives about open cases are to be discouraged. Fully 27 mumphs will have passed between between arrest and currently scheduled final hearing and theoretical trial, should it even happen this time around. Fortunately, fuzzy's google-fu was up to the task, and he found exculpating evidence on the interwebs about a year ago, so theoretically all delays since then have been for the purpose of the state bureau investigating the fraud which was carried out against fuzzy, and we pretend in good faith that we are waiving speedy trial so that these good things can happen for us. Meanwhile fuzzy remains on the assembly line marching toward a felony B which if fully carried out carries a penalty of five-to-twenty, awaiting the mighty orgasm of justice. Until at least September, the balls remain blueish.
Good Luck. May your balls empty their pent up pressure as you resolve the unfair charges against you!

free thoughtpolice
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Posts: 11165
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10421

Post by free thoughtpolice »

Service Dog wrote: I walked to my credit union today. Found out it's closed on alternating-days.

I'm used-to the mostly-empty streets within dogwalking-distance of my home. But-- we have a lot of homeless & general lowlifes who don't comply.
And steady foot & bike traffic-- over the bridge to Brooklyn.

But the credit union is in the East Village, and from-there I walked thru Chinatown & Little Italy,
to my PO Box in Tribeca. Seeing those neighborhoods empty-- gave me chills.

Each neighborhood is a zip code-- which probably generates as much daily commerce-- as some state capitol cities.
(Topeka Kansas, maybe?) NYC's GDP is $1.5 Trillion/ year. Harrowing.

Saw slim older guy with tousled white hair-- Bill Nye type-- in a Sherlock Holmes deerstalker hat. With the dismembered sleeve of a pale blue dress shirt as a mask. The cuff over his mouth, strapped-on via the cufflink holes, sleeve hanging down like a beard or necktie. He wore a tan corduroy blazer and pants cut short. Showing ankles above beat-up loafers. An Ivy League Gyrocopter pilot. Most post-apocalyptic sight I've seen.

In the midwestern town where I grew-up-- half the state's covid cases are workers in a single meat packing plant. Which stayed open, even as employees died. The governor said it was necessary they stay open-- otherwise pigs would have to be euthanized. Workers said the she seemed to care more about the pigs than them.

Weeks ago, I went thru an anxious stage-- of trying to foresee how bad & crazy the world was about-to get. Then I got used to things being like this.
Today's walk shook me up, again.
Service Dog wrote: I walked to my credit union today. Found out it's closed on alternating-days.

I'm used-to the mostly-empty streets within dogwalking-distance of my home. But-- we have a lot of homeless & general lowlifes who don't comply.
And steady foot & bike traffic-- over the bridge to Brooklyn.

But the credit union is in the East Village, and from-there I walked thru Chinatown & Little Italy,
to my PO Box in Tribeca. Seeing those neighborhoods empty-- gave me chills.

Each neighborhood is a zip code-- which probably generates as much daily commerce-- as some state capitol cities.
(Topeka Kansas, maybe?) NYC's GDP is $1.5 Trillion/ year. Harrowing.

Saw slim older guy with tousled white hair-- Bill Nye type-- in a Sherlock Holmes deerstalker hat. With the dismembered sleeve of a pale blue dress shirt as a mask. The cuff over his mouth, strapped-on via the cufflink holes, sleeve hanging down like a beard or necktie. He wore a tan corduroy blazer and pants cut short. Showing ankles above beat-up loafers. An Ivy League Gyrocopter pilot. Most post-apocalyptic sight I've seen.

In the midwestern town where I grew-up-- half the state's covid cases are workers in a single meat packing plant. Which stayed open, even as employees died. The governor said it was necessary they stay open-- otherwise pigs would have to be euthanized. Workers said the she seemed to care more about the pigs than them.

Weeks ago, I went thru an anxious stage-- of trying to foresee how bad & crazy the world was about-to get. Then I got used to things being like this.
Today's walk shook me up, again.
Service Dog wrote: I walked to my credit union today. Found out it's closed on alternating-days.

I'm used-to the mostly-empty streets within dogwalking-distance of my home. But-- we have a lot of homeless & general lowlifes who don't comply.
And steady foot & bike traffic-- over the bridge to Brooklyn.

But the credit union is in the East Village, and from-there I walked thru Chinatown & Little Italy,
to my PO Box in Tribeca. Seeing those neighborhoods empty-- gave me chills.

Each neighborhood is a zip code-- which probably generates as much daily commerce-- as some state capitol cities.
(Topeka Kansas, maybe?) NYC's GDP is $1.5 Trillion/ year. Harrowing.

Saw slim older guy with tousled white hair-- Bill Nye type-- in a Sherlock Holmes deerstalker hat. With the dismembered sleeve of a pale blue dress shirt as a mask. The cuff over his mouth, strapped-on via the cufflink holes, sleeve hanging down like a beard or necktie. He wore a tan corduroy blazer and pants cut short. Showing ankles above beat-up loafers. An Ivy League Gyrocopter pilot. Most post-apocalyptic sight I've seen.

In the midwestern town where I grew-up-- half the state's covid cases are workers in a single meat packing plant. Which stayed open, even as employees died. The governor said it was necessary they stay open-- otherwise pigs would have to be euthanized. Workers said the she seemed to care more about the pigs than them.

Weeks ago, I went thru an anxious stage-- of trying to foresee how bad & crazy the world was about-to get. Then I got used to things being like this.
Today's walk shook me up, again.
This is going to be around for years and not just months.
I am fortunate to live in area where the virus isn't spreading out of control. Out of about 900,ooo people we had only one new detected case yesterday.
The social distancing thing is still in force and most are being respectful about it.
Sadly it's inevitable that a lot of people are are going to die and many more are going to have organic damage from this nasty bug. this won't be over any time soon.
Meanwhile, none of us are safe from the second wave which will be worse.

Matt Cavanaugh
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Posts: 15449
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2013 12:38 pm
Contact:

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10422

Post by Matt Cavanaugh »

Lsuoma's girlfriend nails it again:

The Deadly Costs of Extended Shutdown Orders

My county held a virtual town hall / virus health update today. Lots of unsupported claims that the draconian lock-down diktat had saved an unspecified number of lives, and that lifting it would lead to our health care providers being swamped in two weeks -- again with no evidence provided. [Considering the widespread flaunting of the orders, that's unlikely.] Major rift opening, and lots of online acrimony, between the Sassenach immigrants in our three small cities -- who also include our county health officials -- and the majority of us in this very rural county.

FTR, out of a population of 100,000, we've had 36 confirmed cases so far, and a single death -- and that was a snowbird who'd recently traveled abroad and had preexisting health issues.

screwtape
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Posts: 2713
Joined: Sun Aug 18, 2013 7:15 am

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10423

Post by screwtape »

Matt Cavanaugh wrote: FTR, out of a population of 100,000, we've had 36 confirmed cases so far, and a single death -- and that was a snowbird who'd recently traveled abroad and had preexisting health issues.
Sounds like a prime population for a new virus seeking to make friends and maybe more...

The general public's understanding of epidemiology depresseth me. What do we have to work with? Diagnosis. Contact tracing. Quarantine.

Diagnosis: we have a decent test. Gets it wrong a fair bit, but given that the experience in Iceland is showing half the people with a positive result didn't even have any symptoms, we cannot rely on testing to identify infectious people. And for ex post facto diagnosis, we have an antibody test, but whilst it might be used to allow people out of quarantine, it won't reduce deaths.

Contact tracing: a labour intensive effort to identify people who may have been infected and quarantine them so they may not infect others. Useful if infectious people are easily identified. Not useful if asymptomatic people are infecting others.

Quarantine: an excessive concept in etymology, as 40 days are not needed. Useful if someone might be infectious and should be isolated until they are dead or recovered. Very limited value if asymptomatic people are infecting others.

There was a brief window, now past, where an alert and primed society might have tested anyone with 'flu-like symptoms and isolated them, traced their contacts, and then isolated them in turn. That's good old-fashioned public health at work and that's what Taiwan did (maybe because of a traditional distrust of anything from the mainland). 428 cases, 6 deaths as of today. Pretty good for a population of 23.4 million. We failed to learn from their experience, as the WHO was influenced by (The Peoples' Republic of) China, and did not tell us.
Now, given that the very brief window for testing everyone with 'flu-like symptoms is long gone, and the fact that many with the novel coronavirus have no symptoms, there is no prospect of testing and individual isolation, never mind contact tracing and isolation of contacts, Taiwan's approach is no longer applicable. I should add here that one very important factor in the genesis of any epidemic is whether a disease may be passed from person to person. If you had to eat poorly cooked bat soup this disease would be harder to catch than if simply being in the same room as an infected person would do the job. Once again, the WHO took China's word that it was not a virus capable of person to person transmission. In retrospect one wonders if anyone at the WHO was sober; if they had known anything of the numbers affected in Wuhan they would have guessed. An epsilon semi-moron would have guessed correctly. But they chose to go along with China's press releases. It looks like each infected individual infects around five other people. That's a massive problem, as it will overwhelm contact tracing unless undertaken with total diligence when cases are in single digits. There's another massive problem to come from that infectivity rate, but let's depress you later with that. So, if you have high infectivity, and 50% asymptomatic but infectious individuals, you are screwed. Isolation for all is the only remaining tool left in the BatBelt.
So that's what most countries have done, and as it works, those whose bank accounts are suffering are beginning to make much noise about it. Understandable. How should a total lockdown work? Well, it means the number of deaths will be reduced because of reduced opportunities for transmission. It should put the brakes on new cases, and it is to be expected that people locked down will look around and wonder what the fuss is about. But viruses survive, They don't disappear. Look how quickly we have seen measles chickenpox, polio and mumps surge back as soon as vaccination rates fall below certain thresholds. Stop the lockdown and watch the deaths begin again. This is a certainty, not a speculation. Either over a long slow and painful period, we will lockdown, relax, lock down again and so on and so forth, get to a point where herd immunity prevents general transmission, or we could fail to do anything at all, and get to herd immunity with greater numbers of deaths and total chaos in out hospitals along the way (which also means dramatically higher death rates from other, non-Covid-19, causes when patients with everyday diseases are denied care).

Now let us pray consider herd immunity. There is a non-linear correlation with infectivity. If a sufferer infects one other person on average before dying or recovering, then herd immunity is achieved when 50-60% of the population is immune. But if a sufferer can infect 5-6 other people, we would need 80-90% immunity before disease transmission among the remaining susceptible population is unlikely. Note that we need much more of the population to have been infected and recovered (or died: for these considerations it matters not), and that there are a lot fewer people left to protect - maybe 10-20% - with this herd immunity. Before public health measures and epidemiology were around, a disease like this would have infected 80% of the population, killed the other 20%, and history would have wandered onwards with few academic historians studying the tiny hiccup in birth and death statistics. So is there anything at all we can do to influence the development of herd immunity? Oh, yes. Quite a bit. We could go for the variolation approach, or the vaccination approach. Variola is smallpox. Time was when a healthy person would be inoculated with the lymph from a smallpox vesicle. They would either live, or die, but if they lived they would be immune. When Edward Jenner realised there was cross-immunity between cowpox and smallpox, he started inoculating people with vaccinia, or cowpox. Cowpox is a mild disease, and after the vaccination, people had immunity to smallpox without having had the disease. So we could infect volunteers with Covid-19 (seriously suggested by some), or we could make a vaccine (get the etymology now?). The remaining fly in that pot of ointment is this: some viruses do not stimulate lasting immunity. It might be that they mutate frequently (influenza), and it might be that they occur in multiple forms (there are around 80 known rhinoviruses that cause a "cold" and then even more adenoviruses that cause "summer colds"). And then, worryingly, there are stable viruses to which we make no lasting antibody defense (norovirus or Norwalk virus if you like - you get it, maybe are immune for next winter, but then you can get it again). A small percentage of South Koreans have been testing positive again for the novel coronavirus after seeming to have recovered. It might be that they meet it again, but do not get sick. It might be that our PCR test is only detecting the DNA of dead viruses and the subject's immunity remains in effect. But it may just be that we make no lasting immunity, which would probably imply no lasting benefit from a vaccine. Then, like bats, we become a species constantly infected and either surviving or dying, with our numbers being depleted by an ongoing battle between the virus and our immune systems.

Economic considerations aside, we can easily survive this virus in any scenario except the one where there is no lasting immunity. My guess would be that we survive that too, but in considerably smaller populations and as a much weaker society. And bringing economics into it, which I am not qualified to do (and I guess, no one else is either, since economics is voodoo rather than science), there are consequences from locking down (once, twice, repeatedly), or not locking down at all, accepting higher death rates but less disruption to economic life. No one, really, no one at all, knows what the consequences might be from these choices. It has never been done before, and we have only guesswork to go on. A rather cheerful thought, when the US news keeps telling us daily we must end the lockdown, or we must continue it. We don't know which course reduces deaths, which reduces economic losses, and what the best compromise might be. I can only say that anyone who claims to have the answer is talking through his ass. Whatever we do, most of us will survive, so don't go and shoot yourselves just yet.

My dog in this fight is a peculiar one.
► Show Spoiler

katamari Damassi
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Posts: 5429
Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2012 10:32 am

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10424

Post by katamari Damassi »

screwtape wrote:
Matt Cavanaugh wrote: FTR, out of a population of 100,000, we've had 36 confirmed cases so far, and a single death -- and that was a snowbird who'd recently traveled abroad and had preexisting health issues.
Sounds like a prime population for a new virus seeking to make friends and maybe more...

The general public's understanding of epidemiology depresseth me. What do we have to work with? Diagnosis. Contact tracing. Quarantine.

Diagnosis: we have a decent test. Gets it wrong a fair bit, but given that the experience in Iceland is showing half the people with a positive result didn't even have any symptoms, we cannot rely on testing to identify infectious people. And for ex post facto diagnosis, we have an antibody test, but whilst it might be used to allow people out of quarantine, it won't reduce deaths.

Contact tracing: a labour intensive effort to identify people who may have been infected and quarantine them so they may not infect others. Useful if infectious people are easily identified. Not useful if asymptomatic people are infecting others.

Quarantine: an excessive concept in etymology, as 40 days are not needed. Useful if someone might be infectious and should be isolated until they are dead or recovered. Very limited value if asymptomatic people are infecting others.

There was a brief window, now past, where an alert and primed society might have tested anyone with 'flu-like symptoms and isolated them, traced their contacts, and then isolated them in turn. That's good old-fashioned public health at work and that's what Taiwan did (maybe because of a traditional distrust of anything from the mainland). 428 cases, 6 deaths as of today. Pretty good for a population of 23.4 million. We failed to learn from their experience, as the WHO was influenced by (The Peoples' Republic of) China, and did not tell us.
Now, given that the very brief window for testing everyone with 'flu-like symptoms is long gone, and the fact that many with the novel coronavirus have no symptoms, there is no prospect of testing and individual isolation, never mind contact tracing and isolation of contacts, Taiwan's approach is no longer applicable. I should add here that one very important factor in the genesis of any epidemic is whether a disease may be passed from person to person. If you had to eat poorly cooked bat soup this disease would be harder to catch than if simply being in the same room as an infected person would do the job. Once again, the WHO took China's word that it was not a virus capable of person to person transmission. In retrospect one wonders if anyone at the WHO was sober; if they had known anything of the numbers affected in Wuhan they would have guessed. An epsilon semi-moron would have guessed correctly. But they chose to go along with China's press releases. It looks like each infected individual infects around five other people. That's a massive problem, as it will overwhelm contact tracing unless undertaken with total diligence when cases are in single digits. There's another massive problem to come from that infectivity rate, but let's depress you later with that. So, if you have high infectivity, and 50% asymptomatic but infectious individuals, you are screwed. Isolation for all is the only remaining tool left in the BatBelt.
So that's what most countries have done, and as it works, those whose bank accounts are suffering are beginning to make much noise about it. Understandable. How should a total lockdown work? Well, it means the number of deaths will be reduced because of reduced opportunities for transmission. It should put the brakes on new cases, and it is to be expected that people locked down will look around and wonder what the fuss is about. But viruses survive, They don't disappear. Look how quickly we have seen measles chickenpox, polio and mumps surge back as soon as vaccination rates fall below certain thresholds. Stop the lockdown and watch the deaths begin again. This is a certainty, not a speculation. Either over a long slow and painful period, we will lockdown, relax, lock down again and so on and so forth, get to a point where herd immunity prevents general transmission, or we could fail to do anything at all, and get to herd immunity with greater numbers of deaths and total chaos in out hospitals along the way (which also means dramatically higher death rates from other, non-Covid-19, causes when patients with everyday diseases are denied care).

Now let us pray consider herd immunity. There is a non-linear correlation with infectivity. If a sufferer infects one other person on average before dying or recovering, then herd immunity is achieved when 50-60% of the population is immune. But if a sufferer can infect 5-6 other people, we would need 80-90% immunity before disease transmission among the remaining susceptible population is unlikely. Note that we need much more of the population to have been infected and recovered (or died: for these considerations it matters not), and that there are a lot fewer people left to protect - maybe 10-20% - with this herd immunity. Before public health measures and epidemiology were around, a disease like this would have infected 80% of the population, killed the other 20%, and history would have wandered onwards with few academic historians studying the tiny hiccup in birth and death statistics. So is there anything at all we can do to influence the development of herd immunity? Oh, yes. Quite a bit. We could go for the variolation approach, or the vaccination approach. Variola is smallpox. Time was when a healthy person would be inoculated with the lymph from a smallpox vesicle. They would either live, or die, but if they lived they would be immune. When Edward Jenner realised there was cross-immunity between cowpox and smallpox, he started inoculating people with vaccinia, or cowpox. Cowpox is a mild disease, and after the vaccination, people had immunity to smallpox without having had the disease. So we could infect volunteers with Covid-19 (seriously suggested by some), or we could make a vaccine (get the etymology now?). The remaining fly in that pot of ointment is this: some viruses do not stimulate lasting immunity. It might be that they mutate frequently (influenza), and it might be that they occur in multiple forms (there are around 80 known rhinoviruses that cause a "cold" and then even more adenoviruses that cause "summer colds"). And then, worryingly, there are stable viruses to which we make no lasting antibody defense (norovirus or Norwalk virus if you like - you get it, maybe are immune for next winter, but then you can get it again). A small percentage of South Koreans have been testing positive again for the novel coronavirus after seeming to have recovered. It might be that they meet it again, but do not get sick. It might be that our PCR test is only detecting the DNA of dead viruses and the subject's immunity remains in effect. But it may just be that we make no lasting immunity, which would probably imply no lasting benefit from a vaccine. Then, like bats, we become a species constantly infected and either surviving or dying, with our numbers being depleted by an ongoing battle between the virus and our immune systems.

Economic considerations aside, we can easily survive this virus in any scenario except the one where there is no lasting immunity. My guess would be that we survive that too, but in considerably smaller populations and as a much weaker society. And bringing economics into it, which I am not qualified to do (and I guess, no one else is either, since economics is voodoo rather than science), there are consequences from locking down (once, twice, repeatedly), or not locking down at all, accepting higher death rates but less disruption to economic life. No one, really, no one at all, knows what the consequences might be from these choices. It has never been done before, and we have only guesswork to go on. A rather cheerful thought, when the US news keeps telling us daily we must end the lockdown, or we must continue it. We don't know which course reduces deaths, which reduces economic losses, and what the best compromise might be. I can only say that anyone who claims to have the answer is talking through his ass. Whatever we do, most of us will survive, so don't go and shoot yourselves just yet.

My dog in this fight is a peculiar one.
► Show Spoiler
Don't worry this will soon be over. Our stable genius president just suggested people inject themselves with disinfectant.

free thoughtpolice
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Posts: 11165
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10425

Post by free thoughtpolice »

screwtape wrote:
I can only say that anyone who claims to have the answer is talking through his ass.
Your cult like adherence to scientism probably makes you reject out of hand my brilliant idea of Absinthe Therapy. I suspect that when my clinical trials are complete it will turn out to be safer if not more effective than President Trump's idea of injecting patients with disinfectant. :bjarte:

free thoughtpolice
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Posts: 11165
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10426

Post by free thoughtpolice »

kd beat me to the punchline. :cry:

John D
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Posts: 5966
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 4:23 am
Location: Detroit, MI. USA

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10427

Post by John D »

Leave it to AHA to blame COVID-19 on climate change. I just... can't.... even....
https://thehumanist.com/commentary/clim ... an-save-us

fuzzy
Pit Art Master
Pit Art Master
Posts: 2215
Joined: Thu Apr 03, 2014 5:30 pm

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10428

Post by fuzzy »

free thoughtpolice wrote: Good Luck. May your balls empty their pent up pressure as you resolve the unfair charges against you!
Thanks! I dropped the ball several months ago when I had meant to reply to you about Bobby Orr and/orr bluegrassish music, as I recall, and I can only imagine watching the kind of hockey you were describing. The Bobby I did see back in those Boston Bruin days was Bobby Clarke from pennsyltucky who was a fighter, brawler, defenseman. My youthful hockeyfan years were wasted watching brutish defensemen on a tiny sheet of ice; I envy your memories of things I can only imagine, but caught glimpses of on the teevee as the Habs-Bruins games were very different depending on acreage. I will say that years later I had a wife who worked at a radio station which occasionally provided some live WCHA college hockey tickets, and I did get to see some examples of the game as originally intended.

Musicwise, yes for sure. Springfield southeast of Kansas City MO spawned a country music scene in the 50's with a famous regular show that expanded further southeast to Branson, and further yet to the northern Arkansas near me; Branson is less than an hour away, and employs beaucoup musicians, and these people get bored and show up at open mics etc; people who maybe worked at the lounge associated with [insert old country music name here]

John D
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Posts: 5966
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 4:23 am
Location: Detroit, MI. USA

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10429

Post by John D »

fuzzy wrote:
free thoughtpolice wrote: Good Luck. May your balls empty their pent up pressure as you resolve the unfair charges against you!
Thanks! I dropped the ball several months ago when I had meant to reply to you about Bobby Orr and/orr bluegrassish music, as I recall, and I can only imagine watching the kind of hockey you were describing. The Bobby I did see back in those Boston Bruin days was Bobby Clarke from pennsyltucky who was a fighter, brawler, defenseman. My youthful hockeyfan years were wasted watching brutish defensemen on a tiny sheet of ice; I envy your memories of things I can only imagine, but caught glimpses of on the teevee as the Habs-Bruins games were very different depending on acreage. I will say that years later I had a wife who worked at a radio station which occasionally provided some live WCHA college hockey tickets, and I did get to see some examples of the game as originally intended.

Musicwise, yes for sure. Springfield southeast of Kansas City MO spawned a country music scene in the 50's with a famous regular show that expanded further southeast to Branson, and further yet to the northern Arkansas near me; Branson is less than an hour away, and employs beaucoup musicians, and these people get bored and show up at open mics etc; people who maybe worked at the lounge associated with [insert old country music name here]
The Peterson Family are in Branson. I think my wife and I should go there when we can. They are so damn cute.... and this little 16 year old reminds me of my wife when I first met her...haha.


Bhurzum
Brassy, uncouth, henpecked meathead
Posts: 5059
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Location: Lurking in a dumpster

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10430

Post by Bhurzum »

katamari Damassi wrote: Don't worry this will soon be over. Our stable genius president just suggested people inject themselves with disinfectant.
Fucking hell! You got a link to that?

I've seen the clip where he asks IF there's a method for using disinfectant to treat covid but certainly haven't seen him suggest people inject themselves.

That's a bombshell right there...

KiwiInOz
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Posts: 5425
Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 3:28 pm
Location: Brisbane

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10431

Post by KiwiInOz »

There must be some chlorine gas in the stockpiles from WW1. I hear it cleanses the lungs of Covid19.

Bhurzum
Brassy, uncouth, henpecked meathead
Posts: 5059
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 2:08 am
Location: Lurking in a dumpster

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10432

Post by Bhurzum »

KiwiInOz wrote: There must be some chlorine gas in the stockpiles from WW1. I hear it cleanses the lungs of Covid19.
Are you suggesting we inject ourselves with chlorine, mustard gas, BZ, agent orange and various carcinogenic materials?

Fuck!

free thoughtpolice
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Posts: 11165
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10433

Post by free thoughtpolice »

Bhurzum wrote:
KiwiInOz wrote: There must be some chlorine gas in the stockpiles from WW1. I hear it cleanses the lungs of Covid19.
Are you suggesting we inject ourselves with chlorine, mustard gas, BZ, agent orange and various carcinogenic materials?

Fuck!
Bhurzum wrote:
KiwiInOz wrote: There must be some chlorine gas in the stockpiles from WW1. I hear it cleanses the lungs of Covid19.
Are you suggesting we inject ourselves with chlorine, mustard gas, BZ, agent orange and various carcinogenic materials?

Fuck!
He's just asking.

Keating
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Posts: 2421
Joined: Fri Apr 10, 2015 3:18 pm
Location: South of anteater guy

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10434

Post by Keating »

The second order effects of the lockdown is starting to worry me more than the virus. My sister is with the Department of Employment, and the unemployment numbers are eye-watering, and everything she tells me going on behind the scenes is just depressing. My dad had a possible aneurism identified in late January, and hasn't been able to get it looked at properly with all the hospitals closed to non-WuFlu cases. Hopefully he will now that the elective surgery ban is being lifted next week. I'm strongly coming to the conclusion that the number of people who will die from the lockdown will exceed the virus by the time this is all over. That doesn't mean I think there wasn't a reason for the lockdown, just that there are a huge number of terrible variables to balance here.

Bhurzum
Brassy, uncouth, henpecked meathead
Posts: 5059
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 2:08 am
Location: Lurking in a dumpster

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10435

Post by Bhurzum »

free thoughtpolice wrote: He's just asking.
I chose to interpret his words/intention(s) in a way that suits my world-view.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have tide-pods to eat...

KiwiInOz
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Posts: 5425
Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 3:28 pm
Location: Brisbane

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10436

Post by KiwiInOz »

Bhurzum wrote:
free thoughtpolice wrote: He's just asking.
I chose to interpret his words/intention(s) in a way that suits my world-view.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have tide-pods to eat...
Can I suggest a bowl with hot water and a towel over your head. Much safer than an injection.

Bhurzum
Brassy, uncouth, henpecked meathead
Posts: 5059
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 2:08 am
Location: Lurking in a dumpster

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10437

Post by Bhurzum »

KiwiInOz wrote:
Bhurzum wrote:
free thoughtpolice wrote: He's just asking.
I chose to interpret his words/intention(s) in a way that suits my world-view.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have tide-pods to eat...
Can I suggest a bowl with hot water and a towel over your head. Much safer than an injection.
So I need to water-board myself?

KiwiInOz
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Posts: 5425
Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 3:28 pm
Location: Brisbane

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10438

Post by KiwiInOz »

Bhurzum wrote:
KiwiInOz wrote:
Bhurzum wrote:
free thoughtpolice wrote: He's just asking.
I chose to interpret his words/intention(s) in a way that suits my world-view.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have tide-pods to eat...
Can I suggest a bowl with hot water and a towel over your head. Much safer than an injection.
So I need to water-board myself?
Well it's either that or go fuck yourself.

Bhurzum
Brassy, uncouth, henpecked meathead
Posts: 5059
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 2:08 am
Location: Lurking in a dumpster

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10439

Post by Bhurzum »

KiwiInOz wrote: Well it's either that or go fuck yourself.
Hmmm...since nobody here is capable of it, I'll go fuck myself.

KiwiInOz
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Posts: 5425
Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 3:28 pm
Location: Brisbane

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10440

Post by KiwiInOz »

You saw through my cake or death gambit.

Locked