I think that youall don't really understand what drives Trump's approval. So, while we are making predictions I will throw mine in.Old_ones wrote: ↑ Here is a set of predictions and reasoning for Trump related developments that a former Republican congressperson is putting forward. Some of his predictions agree with my own thinking and he has some reasons for them that I didn't think of previously. The way it is written is kind of weird, but it's possible to follow.
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house ... es-in-20191) Donald J. Trump’s presidency will not survive 2019;
2) The downward trajectory of every aspect of his tenure indicates we are headed for a spectacular political crash-and-burn — and fairly soon;
3) His increasingly erratic and angry behavior, his self-imposed isolation, his inability and refusal to listen to smart advisers that he hired, all are leading him to a precipice;
4) Meanwhile, the global and U.S. economies are softening in great part because of the unnecessary and ill-conceived trade war he launched against Canada and our European allies; if he wanted to conduct a legitimate trade war against China, wouldn’t it have made more sense to have trading allies such as Canada and Europe with us, instead of making them our adversaries?
5) Consumer confidence is declining and the American economy will slow noticeably in 2019. A recession is right around the corner, heading into 2020;
6) The volatility in the stock markets threatens to weaken Trump’s support among the GOP donor class, which will translate to GOP senators pulling away from Trump in short order;
7) Legally, Trump is in peril from not only from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation but also from separate investigations being conducted by the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York into Trump’s life and business dealings;
8) Fox News hosts are beginning to question the Trump administration’s actions on air, showing cracks — albeit, small cracks at the moment — in Fox’s heretofore 100 percent fealty to Trump;
9) These cracks will expand into chasms as news and entertainment mogul Rupert Murdoch calculates Trump’s prognosis and decides he doesn’t want his Fox News network to go down the drain with Trump;
10) Fox recently lost several days in a row to MSNBC in the ratings race — and Fox host Sean Hannity has lost 20 percent of his nightly audience since the midterm elections;
11) Without Fox approving Trump’s agenda, his support will decline from the 40s into the upper 20s;
12) The Mueller investigation will come to an end in 2019;
13) Mueller will shock everyone with what he has discovered, and the result will be much worse for Trump than anyone has anticipated;
1) The economy will weaken, but Trump will boost the economy in time for his re-election. If the economy is too slow for him to win the election he will stop his tariff fighting and make the markets happy again.
2) Trump can turn against the Fox reporters just like he turned against the CNN reporters. His fans will love it. He can easily paint Fox News as fake news and his supporters will agree.
3) Trump can survive a great many more "scandals". His fans don't care. Even if he is found guilty of election finance law-breaking, or if some of his businesses are fined, his fan base will not care.
4) The Dems have no good competition for Trump in 2020 and Trump will win. The public actually will prefer Trump (with 4 years of experience) to Pocahontas or Uncle Joe or the commie Sanders. He could win even with approval ratings in the 30% to 40% range.