The Refuge of the Toads

[Jan Steen]

Here's some free legal advice for the recipients of Dr. Carrier's C&D letter: Wrap some fish heads in it. Seal in ziploc bag. Put in box. Send to Dr. Carrier.

Disclaimer: IANAL (does it show?).

[Mr. X, Indeed]

I heard there is a new policy at the next Skepticon, when you arrive you have to leave your car keys in a big glass bowl.

Those are great! I showed up to one in an old Camry and drove home in a new Lexus. For some reason, I never got invited to another. Asshole made me take my Camry back a few days later, too. Some people.

[Really?]

Here's some free legal advice for the recipients of Dr. Carrier's C&D letter: Wrap some fish heads in it. Seal in ziploc bag. Put in box. Send to Dr. Carrier.

Disclaimer: IANAL (does it show?).

Here's one of Carrier's boot-licking sycophants from Milwaukee Mythicists delivering real lawsuit papers to Zvan.

[youtube]02h8XHJ5dzM[/youtube]

[Darth Cynic]

Good points, Really? and Guest. Still a bit skeptical, but that could be because I'm really cynical from all the drama. Also reluctant to part with any cash after an extraordinarily expensive veterinary bill. Stupid ginger cat.

You have a ginger cat and you let it live!? Round here, once we isolate that ginger gene we'll be spared any further need to take those things in a burlap sack with a brick to the nearest water course, and I'm talking about the human spawned ones. But enough ginger bashing.

I can well understand the cynicism around these matters and especially where SJWs, who have much lower bars, are concerned. However, the world's most renowned author, philosopher, visionary and non-impregnating Don Juan does a good job hanging himself by his own words, and the words of his character referees aren't much better. He comes across, to me at any rate, as one sleazy little creep too eager to rub his distinctly average pecker up against anyone he thinks he can wear down with persistence. Especially when considered along with his off-topic oversharing - which I suspect he does because he's getting off on it, his seizing on technicalities* and desperation tinged sending up of the booty signal on his blog. It suggests a man who either doesn't comprehend boundaries or doesn't care because he's so sexually liberated and enlightened. One with a shallow, one-track mind when off his Jesus Myth shtick and will thus do whatever he thinks will aid getting his pizzle damp in any vagina possessing woman.

Then there's his dancing in that shirt... if that don't scream aberration I don't know what does.

* - Such as how he elected to no longer be listed on the SSA speaking bureau so as to avoid the student poon limiting regulations, but still get SSA gigs and have both worlds.

[Service Dog]

Dr. Richard Carrier practices polyamory as if it's a subset of Pick Up Artistry-- a set of catchphrases and poses to strike, to hypmotize wimmen to drop their defenses & panties.

Is this the only component of his identity, where everything he says is camoflage for his actual agenda?

[Really?]

Good points, Really? and Guest. Still a bit skeptical, but that could be because I'm really cynical from all the drama. Also reluctant to part with any cash after an extraordinarily expensive veterinary bill. Stupid ginger cat.

You have a ginger cat and you let it live!? Round here, once we isolate that ginger gene we'll be spared any further need to take those things in a burlap sack with a brick to the nearest water course, and I'm talking about the human spawned ones. But enough ginger bashing.

I can well understand the cynicism around these matters and especially where SJWs, who have much lower bars, are concerned. However, the world's most renowned author, philosopher, visionary and non-impregnating Don Juan does a good job hanging himself by his own words, and the words of his character referees aren't much better. He comes across, to me at any rate, as one sleazy little creep too eager to rub his distinctly average pecker up against anyone he thinks he can wear down with persistence. Especially when considered along with his off-topic oversharing - which I suspect he does because he's getting off on it, his seizing on technicalities* and desperation tinged sending up of the booty signal on his blog. It suggests a man who either doesn't comprehend boundaries or doesn't care because he's so sexually liberated and enlightened. One with a shallow, one-track mind when off his Jesus Myth shtick and will thus do whatever he thinks will aid getting his pizzle damp in any vagina possessing woman.

Then there's his dancing in that shirt... if that don't scream aberration I don't know what does.

* - Such as how he elected to no longer be listed on the SSA speaking bureau so as to avoid the student poon limiting regulations, but still get SSA gigs and have both worlds.

Speaking of best of both worlds, here's someone who it would totally not be strange at all for someone who grew up in the seventies to fuck:

[youtube]uVjRe8QXFHY[/youtube]

I mean, he had totally graduated from high school by the time she was born, right? (Of course, Carrier would never, ever violate the age of consent laws of whatever state he was in, so he would only tell Miley about his SuperVasectomy starting on her 18th birthday. Which is here:)

http://www.billboard.com/files/styles/a ... 17_409.jpg

[Darth Cynic]

Speaking of best of both worlds, here's someone who it would totally not be strange at all for someone who grew up in the seventies to fuck:

snip

I mean, he had totally graduated from high school by the time she was born, right? (Of course, Carrier would never, ever violate the age of consent laws of whatever state he was in, so he would only tell Miley about his SuperVasectomy starting on her 18th birthday. Which is here:)

http://www.billboard.com/files/styles/a ... 17_409.jpg

I was born in the 70s does that mean... hey, are those macaroons!?

[Guest_935516df]

Here's some free legal advice for the recipients of Dr. Carrier's C&D letter: Wrap some fish heads in it. Seal in ziploc bag. Put in box. Send to Dr. Carrier.

Disclaimer: I ANAL (does it show?).

Careful there Jan. You put that up there, and the Carrier-fairy just might run in there an slip a space in between when you are not looking. He is a persistent little bugger.
-Soylent d6f

[Brive1987]

Mn Atheists is Zvan's comfort blanket no?

Goodness me.

Still, surely Carrier has spread his load too thin this time and is shooting legal blanks.

[ConcentratedH2O, OM]

Poor old Nerd.

He thinks that he has a solid grip on technological progress (having been a scientist for 200+ years), but sometimes things get away from him.

Like search engines presenting you with results that match your preferences, and that are from websites you seem to like, based on your browsing history. Dopey cunt.

http://i.imgur.com/a6XokT9.png

[Sunder]

I have little love for Carrier but I have far less for some of the people he's going up against. For purely selfish reasons, I hope he can cause them some major discomfort.

[Guest_935516df]

If Richard ever opts to file a case in his current city of residence, it will be in Franklin County.
https://clerk.franklincountyohio.gov/pu ... ecords.cfm

An additional consideration is that if Richard happens to be sued in a different city, and it is only one, his options include:
* Finding couch space at a friendly fan's house. Of course that depends if one exists in that city that is willing to actually let Richard & his girlfriends crash there.
* Turn it into a business trip and try to arrange speaking gigs either there, or along the way, assuming any of his rabid fans is still willing to book him.
* Move there. If someone sue Richard from a different city, nothing is tying him down to Columbus Oh. It might be cheaper for him to just pick up and move to that city for the duration of the trial. Biggest financial loss would be his security deposit (about 1 month's rent).

It would have to take a simultaneous multi-city court case to really hurt him financially when it comes to travel costs.

-Soylent d6f

[Stretchycheese]

I have little love for Carrier but I have far less for some of the people he's going up against. For purely selfish reasons, I hope he can cause them some major discomfort.

Damn, this drama between Richard Carrier, Lauren Lane, Skepticon, and others is a sight to behold. On the one I hand, I know it's kind of wrong for me to delight in the misery of others. But on the other hand, seeing self righteous and hypocritical SJW ideologues eating each other likes this is absolutely wonderful to see. To see their public shaming rhetoric and attacks that they love meting out to dissenters being turned towards each other is pure karma. These people truly and richly deserve each other.

[Clarence]

Speaking of best of both worlds, here's someone who it would totally not be strange at all for someone who grew up in the seventies to fuck:

[youtube]uVjRe8QXFHY[/youtube]

I mean, he had totally graduated from high school by the time she was born, right? (Of course, Carrier would never, ever violate the age of consent laws of whatever state he was in, so he would only tell Miley about his SuperVasectomy starting on her 18th birthday. Which is here:)

http://www.billboard.com/files/styles/a ... 17_409.jpg

Miley Cyrus is 23, rich, knows powerful and rich people, still has a megaphone absolutely huge compared to anything old Dicky Carrier likely to ever have even if he somehow magically replaced Richard Dawkins and has a famous father. She's no star-struck undergrad, sixteen year old camper at some 'skeptic retreat' or in just about any metric under his power.


She's no little girl, nor helpless damsel.

Due to modern medicine, birth control, and abortion, she has almost no risks to worry about (except cooties) if she was to have 'carnal relations' with Mr. Large Brain.

Indeed, if - without drugs, coercion, or lies - ol Tricky Dicky was 'hitting' that, I'd be congratulating him. And he'd be every bit the Master Seducer he seems to want to be.

[Hunt]

Personally, I am hoping that Richard doesn't stop until he gets his satisfaction.
[youtube]a0fkNdPiIL4[/youtube]

Not DeWalt, not interested.

[Kirbmarc]

Miley Cyrus is 23, rich, knows powerful and rich people, still has a megaphone absolutely huge compared to anything old Dicky Carrier likely to ever have even if he somehow magically replaced Richard Dawkins and has a famous father. She's no star-struck undergrad, sixteen year old camper at some 'skeptic retreat' or in just about any metric under his power.


She's no little girl, nor helpless damsel.

Due to modern medicine, birth control, and abortion, she has almost no risks to worry about (except cooties) if she was to have 'carnal relations' with Mr. Large Brain.

Indeed, if - without drugs, coercion, or lies - ol Tricky Dicky was 'hitting' that, I'd be congratulating him. And he'd be every bit the Master Seducer he seems to want to be.

You have better chances of becoming the next Pope.

[feathers]

What makes you so sure Paul and Ophie haven't been into the hanky-panky together?

Ophelia doesn't have tentacles.

Don't be too sure of that.

[Cnutella]

Speaking of best of both worlds, here's someone who it would totally not be strange at all for someone who grew up in the seventies to fuck:

snip

I mean, he had totally graduated from high school by the time she was born, right? (Of course, Carrier would never, ever violate the age of consent laws of whatever state he was in, so he would only tell Miley about his SuperVasectomy starting on her 18th birthday. Which is here:)

http://www.billboard.com/files/styles/a ... 17_409.jpg

I was born in the 70s does that mean... hey, are those macaroons!?

No I think they're real.

[feathers]

And if you are still in a giving mood after giving to Amy Frank, please know that Heina has a new crowdfunding effort. She wants money for cats.

https://www.crowdrise.com/stray-cat-all ... nadadabhoy

Perhaps she could write a book and donate some small part of the profits.

[paddybrown]

Have to share this. Claire and Beccy, formerly two thirds of the Jazzabelles, do a two-part-harmony piano ballad cover of a song that wasn't originally a two-part harmony piano ballad.

[youtube]4wTTm90AhSw[/youtube]

[Brive1987]

I have little love for Carrier but I have far less for some of the people he's going up against. For purely selfish reasons, I hope he can cause them some major discomfort.

Damn, this drama between Richard Carrier, Lauren Lane, Skepticon, and others is a sight to behold. On the one I hand, I know it's kind of wrong for me to delight in the misery of others. But on the other hand, seeing self righteous and hypocritical SJW ideologues eating each other likes this is absolutely wonderful to see. To see their public shaming rhetoric and attacks that they love meting out to dissenters being turned towards each other is pure karma. These people truly and richly deserve each other.

This is exactly the feeling I got in Dawn of War when I pitted Chaos vs Chaos. Incestuous violence.
Compelling stuff.

[Brive1987]

And if you are still in a giving mood after giving to Amy Frank, please know that Heina has a new crowdfunding effort. She wants money for cats.

https://www.crowdrise.com/stray-cat-all ... nadadabhoy

Perhaps she could write a book and donate some small part of the profits.

Man I :nin: that a week ago or more. :bjarte:

[feathers]

I heard there is a new policy at the next Skepticon, when you arrive you have to leave your car keys in a big glass bowl.

And your nads.

[Brive1987]

I enjoyed watching Damion manoeuvre Ashley into saying she wasn't blaming Carrier for anything, or maybe she was. At a certain point she no longer knew.

[rayshul]

She's not smart.

[surreptitious57]

As of last week we also have this public accusation of him violating the policy. She says he hit on her and non consensually touched
her arm and leg. There are comments from another student corroborating that these aren t new accusations. This is the accusation
that the Secular Student Alliance investigated and which resulted in his removal from the SSA Speakers Bureau

Stephanie Zvan / Almost Diamonds / 20 June 2016


Stephanie Zvan of The Orbit and PZ Myers of Free thought Blogs both claim they have spoken to two other women who have made
claims against me. They released no details about those claims just conclusory statements whose truth can not be assessed. They conducted no professional investigation of any of those claims before publishing them not even of the sort a competent journalist would perform. Such behaviour is reckless irresponsible and unprofessional

Richard Carrier / Richard Carrier Blogs / 30 July 2016

[Shatterface]

I have little love for Carrier but I have far less for some of the people he's going up against. For purely selfish reasons, I hope he can cause them some major discomfort.

There's also more of them than him so I'd prefer to see him take them down than vise-versa.

[HunnyBunny]

I have little love for Carrier but I have far less for some of the people he's going up against. For purely selfish reasons, I hope he can cause them some major discomfort.

There's also more of them than him so I'd prefer to see him take them down than vise-versa.

I prefer that they descend into assured mutual destruction mode. It is looking promising, Carrier lacks awareness of the Streisand effect. If he has any credibility left in the wider AS audience, it is for his foot-mouth-comedic value. He will be left with his sycophants and the few mythicists that don't understand Bayes Theorum.

If he continues his legal action they should all burn up in the fire of increasingly nasty tit for tat. And as we all know, nobody does nasty pettiness quite like the FtB baboons.

[CommanderTuvok]

If you are a man, never, ever attend conferences or events that are populated by SJWs. I feel sorry for male students these days. University must be a minefield.

Even The Commander can perhaps see Carrier is getting some rough treatment here, but it is par for the course for the cult that he bought in to.

I am enjoying the fact Carrier is coming to a *sticky* end, after his hypocrisy over Shermer.

[VickyCaramel]

He will be left with his sycophants and the few mythicists that don't understand Bayes Theorum.

Can anyone explain the problem with using Bayes Theorem in history?
As things stand, we look at the evidence and see which scenario is most likely and go with that, I see no real harm in having a formula to assess that evidence, just as long as it is remembered that we are only working with the evidence that is available which is possibly very little.

The way I understand it, using Bayes Theorem is just a tool, not any kind of definitive proof. Carrier isn't claiming any different is he?

[Hunt]

I think Carrier is in it to burn the ship down; there is no good ending for him. He successfully sues everyone, and they all pay up and hate him forevermore? The key to understanding Carrier's screed comes at the end, with his little soliloquy about rotten epistemology. Let's willfully suspend disbelief for a moment and pretend that a person as intelligent as Carrier could get this far and not know in his bones that Ftb/Skepticon "epistemology" (as he calls it) is totally fucked up, that instead of evidence and skepticism, they prefer rumor, suspicion, hearsay and hysteria. Carrier suddenly wants all of that to go away, as if he's been living in some kind of hermetically sealed bubble for the last four years. Ain't never gonna happen. Don't get me wrong, I like the vision. If his intentions really are genuine, I would be behind him 110% Er. Well, that didn't come out right....I definitely support him, I mean...I would not be touching his body in any way.

[CommanderTuvok]

Taslima seems to be doing the sex shaming thing...

Quite a few on the left have suddenly developed a right wing conservative stance on a woman taking her clothes off.

[Brive1987]

He will be left with his sycophants and the few mythicists that don't understand Bayes Theorum.

Can anyone explain the problem with using Bayes Theorem in history?
As things stand, we look at the evidence and see which scenario is most likely and go with that, I see no real harm in having a formula to assess that evidence, just as long as it is remembered that we are only working with the evidence that is available which is possibly very little.

The way I understand it, using Bayes Theorem is just a tool, not any kind of definitive proof. Carrier isn't claiming any different is he?

You know, you read reviews of competing historiographies like this short one from the British Library http://www.bl.uk/world-war-one/articles ... ld-war-one

And guess what. They are not resolved by Bayes. In fact there is not a formula to be seen. The problem is that while the formula may be accurate, the numbers inserted are representations of personal opinion. I think Dawkin's once did a good take down along these lines.

[Brive1987]

She's not smart.

Indeed. She is PhD dumb. It says so on her Twitter handle.

[Phil_Giordana_FCD]

Fuck!

At least 300 euros repair on the scooter's brakes. That 300 we can't afford right now. Maybe I'll invest in thicker soles...

[VickyCaramel]

He will be left with his sycophants and the few mythicists that don't understand Bayes Theorum.

Can anyone explain the problem with using Bayes Theorem in history?
As things stand, we look at the evidence and see which scenario is most likely and go with that, I see no real harm in having a formula to assess that evidence, just as long as it is remembered that we are only working with the evidence that is available which is possibly very little.

The way I understand it, using Bayes Theorem is just a tool, not any kind of definitive proof. Carrier isn't claiming any different is he?

You know, you read reviews of competing historiographies like this short one from the British Library http://www.bl.uk/world-war-one/articles ... ld-war-one

And guess what. They are not resolved by Bayes. In fact there is not a formula to be seen. The problem is that while the formula may be accurate, the numbers inserted are representations of personal opinion. I think Dawkin's once did a good take down along these lines.

Indeed, somebody once said something along the lines of, "The facts are not in dispute, it is the meaning of the facts that are in dispute".

But as Carrier says (I'll paraphrase), If you are weighing up evidence, and doing it right, you are using Bayes Theorem anyway, or some approximation of it. Frankly I don't see that using Bayes Theorem changes anything except to help keep people on the straight and narrow.

[johnself]

He will be left with his sycophants and the few mythicists that don't understand Bayes Theorum.

Can anyone explain the problem with using Bayes Theorem in history?
As things stand, we look at the evidence and see which scenario is most likely and go with that, I see no real harm in having a formula to assess that evidence, just as long as it is remembered that we are only working with the evidence that is available which is possibly very little.

The way I understand it, using Bayes Theorem is just a tool, not any kind of definitive proof. Carrier isn't claiming any different is he?

I think the objections are not that he propose to use Bayes Theorem (as in, hey, let's try to use BT for history) since this was proposed by another historian long before Carrier wrote his books or got interested in BT. The objections relates to *how* Carrier uses BT in his two books to compute the chance Jesus existed to 4 decimal places.. i.e. the details in his argument. The possibly most comprehensive discussion can be found here:


Also Carrier claims to have proven and solved several problems that are related to probability theory, like that he has discovered a new and revolutionary way of thinking about what a probability is which has also been strongly criticized:


https://letterstonature.wordpress.com/2 ... #more-3129

[VickyCaramel]

He will be left with his sycophants and the few mythicists that don't understand Bayes Theorum.

Can anyone explain the problem with using Bayes Theorem in history?
As things stand, we look at the evidence and see which scenario is most likely and go with that, I see no real harm in having a formula to assess that evidence, just as long as it is remembered that we are only working with the evidence that is available which is possibly very little.

The way I understand it, using Bayes Theorem is just a tool, not any kind of definitive proof. Carrier isn't claiming any different is he?

I think the objections are not that he propose to use Bayes Theorem (as in, hey, let's try to use BT for history) since this was proposed by another historian long before Carrier wrote his books or got interested in BT. The objections relates to *how* Carrier uses BT in his two books to compute the chance Jesus existed to 4 decimal places.. i.e. the details in his argument. The possibly most comprehensive discussion can be found here:


Also Carrier claims to have proven and solved several problems that are related to probability theory, like that he has discovered a new and revolutionary way of thinking about what a probability is which has also been strongly criticized:


https://letterstonature.wordpress.com/2 ... #more-3129

Thank you, I will give that a thorough read later.

[deLurch]

Fuck!
At least 300 euros repair on the scooter's brakes. That 300 we can't afford right now. Maybe I'll invest in thicker soles...

If you have more time on your hands than money, consider learning how to change them yourself. Today there are plenty of online tutorials on how to do it specific to your make and model. All you have to spend money on are the parts.

I thought one of the great attractions to scooters was that they could be mostly self serviced.
[youtube]nat0lVKkuSk[/youtube]

[Brive1987]

You know, you read reviews of competing historiographies like this short one from the British Library http://www.bl.uk/world-war-one/articles ... ld-war-one

And guess what. They are not resolved by Bayes. In fact there is not a formula to be seen. The problem is that while the formula may be accurate, the numbers inserted are representations of personal opinion. I think Dawkin's once did a good take down along these lines.

Indeed, somebody once said something along the lines of, "The facts are not in dispute, it is the meaning of the facts that are in dispute".

But as Carrier says (I'll paraphrase), If you are weighing up evidence, and doing it right, you are using Bayes Theorem anyway, or some approximation of it. Frankly I don't see that using Bayes Theorem changes anything except to help keep people on the straight and narrow.

Here is Bayes explained like you are 5.

Note how at 2:27 seemingly arbitrary probabilities are inserted as to whether Democrats or Republicans would cut all business taxes. 75% vs 25%. Opinion turned into numbers. Or maybe there is a history of cutting all business taxes and these are accurate values.

But I think not.

It's as crap as Drake.

Now what's the prior probability of the German high command manipulating a weak Emperor into an Eastern war???

[youtube]2Df1sDAyRvQ[/youtube]

[Phil_Giordana_FCD]

Fuck!
At least 300 euros repair on the scooter's brakes. That 300 we can't afford right now. Maybe I'll invest in thicker soles...

If you have more time on your hands than money, consider learning how to change them yourself. Today there are plenty of online tutorials on how to do it specific to your make and model. All you have to spend money on are the parts.

I thought one of the great attractions to scooters was that they could be mostly self serviced.
[youtube]nat0lVKkuSk[/youtube]

I wish. I don't have a garage, which means repairs on main street. I also don't have the tools. And the parts, well, that's the biggest problem, since the providers have decided August is the best time to close shop for inventory.

And in order to be fine, I'd need the fucking scooter by Thursday at least. I have my last lessons before the test that day, and I can't join the circuit without the scoot. I can drive with front brakes only, but there's a 50/50 chance they will break down as well.

Then I hope my soles are strong enough...

[Service Dog]

Miley Cyrus is 23, rich, knows powerful and rich people, still has a megaphone absolutely huge compared to anything old Dicky Carrier likely to ever have even if he somehow magically replaced Richard Dawkins and has a famous father. She's no star-struck undergrad, sixteen year old camper at some 'skeptic retreat' or in just about any metric under his power.


She's no little girl, nor helpless damsel.

Due to modern medicine, birth control, and abortion, she has almost no risks to worry about (except cooties) if she was to have 'carnal relations' with Mr. Large Brain.

Indeed, if - without drugs, coercion, or lies - ol Tricky Dicky was 'hitting' that, I'd be congratulating him. And he'd be every bit the Master Seducer he seems to want to be.

You have better chances of becoming the next Pope.

The truth is far worse: there's very little stopping Carrier from scoring with Miley, within a year. He has no job, no mortgage, no roots. Getting a job lugging her stage equipment is not hard at all. The work would whip his body into shape in weeks. From there, all he has to do is always have an interesting book on his person, be seen reading every time everyone-else takes a smoke break, and be ready to tell Miley fascinating tidbits about history or mythology, when she asks about today's book. Repeat until her intellectual curiosity blurs into sexual curiosity.

The barrier is 0% Miley's inaccessibility. Within hours of meeting, she literally climbed me like a ladder, to change a lightbulb. The barrier is 100℅ Carrier's inability to execute my simple plan, without blowing it... by only reading his own book, or letting her see him dance, or getting his ass beaten by the other (face-tattooed, orclike) roadies. He also have to refrain from telling her his dreary opinions about polyamory, pleasing women, what a well-mannered gent he is... and dont try to initiate threesomes with mothers who bring their daughters to the concerts.

fuck. let's look-into this pope option.

[Easy J]

I have little love for Carrier but I have far less for some of the people he's going up against. For purely selfish reasons, I hope he can cause them some major discomfort.

There's also more of them than him so I'd prefer to see him take them down than vise-versa.

Same here. And they've already put him down & out. He's finished as anything other than a punchline within the A/S community. The rest of that crowd have still further to fall & no real way to "win" in this entanglement. Even if it goes their way it looks like more of the same shit everyone's already sick of from that crowd. Meanwhile they suffer from their past association with & tolerance of this pervy little creep.

I make no pretense here. This is pure entertainment for me. This isn't my secular community getting dragged through the mud. It's the Great Leap Forward version these ideologues have erected since the old guard abandoned the field.

[Easy J]

You know, you read reviews of competing historiographies like this short one from the British Library http://www.bl.uk/world-war-one/articles ... ld-war-one

And guess what. They are not resolved by Bayes. In fact there is not a formula to be seen. The problem is that while the formula may be accurate, the numbers inserted are representations of personal opinion. I think Dawkin's once did a good take down along these lines.

Indeed, somebody once said something along the lines of, "The facts are not in dispute, it is the meaning of the facts that are in dispute".

But as Carrier says (I'll paraphrase), If you are weighing up evidence, and doing it right, you are using Bayes Theorem anyway, or some approximation of it. Frankly I don't see that using Bayes Theorem changes anything except to help keep people on the straight and narrow.

Here is Bayes explained like you are 5.

Note how at 2:27 seemingly arbitrary probabilities are inserted as to whether Democrats or Republicans would cut all business taxes. 75% vs 25%. Opinion turned into numbers. Or maybe there is a history of cutting all business taxes and these are accurate values.

But I think not.

It's as crap as Drake.

Now what's the prior probability of the German high command manipulating a weak Emperor into an Eastern war???

[youtube]2Df1sDAyRvQ[/youtube]

I'm likely the least educated of anyone following the subject, but for whatever it's worth I'm still baffled that he thinks unknown human actions in the distant past can be assigned mathematical values. The unknowns are all complex systems with too many variables. Hypothetical historical events aren't, clean, hard things like dice throws or coin flips.

[Jan Steen]

What Bayes's Theorem does is calculate a probability X in terms of other probabilities A, B, C, D, etc. This can be useful when it is difficult to calculate X directly, whereas you do have ways to calculate A, B, C, D, etc. But in the field of ancient history in which Carrier wants to use it, there is usually no way to know A, B, C, D, etc. with any useful degree of precision. So he has to resort to making guesses. And voila, the probability of X (Jesus existed) is at most 0.33. What Carrier does is complete and utter garbage, on the principle of garbage in, garbage out.

I also don't buy the argument that Bayes forces you to show your evidence. Any historian worth his salt already shows the evidence that lead to a particular conclusion. Bayes doesn't exactly force you to show your evidence, it forces you to calculate probabilities that may well be intractable.

It may even be nonsensical to treat past events that either happened or didn't happen as if they have a probability other than 0 or 1. But that is a different discussion.

[Phil_Giordana_FCD]

Ok, went to the garage. Turns out the problem was not the originally suspected stuff. Full repair was 25 euros.

You people can put those wallets away...


:dance: :dance: :dance:

[Easy J]

I feel like he treats hypothetical events like conceptual point particles & this always prevents me from following his further reasoning with any interest. I feel like he hand waves away serious potential objections early on in his haste to move onto showing off the exciting conclusions.

[Jan Steen]

Ok, went to the garage. Turns out the problem was not the originally suspected stuff. Full repair was 25 euros.

You people can put those wallets away...


:dance: :dance: :dance:

That's good news. As long a you don't forget that scooters are dangerous even with perfect brakes.
Especially when the driver is called Phil Giordana.

[Jan Steen]

I feel like he treats hypothetical events like conceptual point particles & this always prevents me from following his further reasoning with any interest. I feel like he hand waves away serious potential objections early on in his haste to move onto showing off the exciting conclusions.

Yeah, that's why his conclusions are worth shit.

[CommanderTuvok]

Ok, went to the garage. Turns out the problem was not the originally suspected stuff. Full repair was 25 euros.

You people can put those wallets away...


:dance: :dance: :dance:

Excellent.

Compare that to Dicky Carrier's increasing bill spent on lawyers.

:burn:

[comhcinc]

I feel like he treats hypothetical events like conceptual point particles & this always prevents me from following his further reasoning with any interest. I feel like he hand waves away serious potential objections early on in his haste to move onto showing off the exciting conclusions.

Yeah, that's why his conclusions are worth shit.

Having some training in historiography myself I can tell you that no one does that shit.

[Matt Cavanaugh]

She's not smart.

They give out PhDs these days like lollipops at the barber shop.

[Dave]

My first thought was that my knack for being a Trickster has become much less reliable. I used to be able to do or wear the Wrong thing & make it look Right. Second-- for a long time I would continue the Wrong way anyway, to be contrarian or defiant or to 'prove' I was above caring about superficial things. Especially during years when trivial shit was lionized... such as young men growing great, manly beards which were, paradoxically, prissy & preening as fuck. My waaaaaacky shit was as much an affectation as their pseudo-sober shit. Except their affectations were in sync with the times & I was pissing against the wind.

In my experience, pulling off anything is all about confidence. You appear to be having a lot of self-doubt these days, so Im not at all surprised that you find it more difficult to pull off wearing or doing the wrong thing and making it look right. It also sounds like you dont have a defined community for you to belong to, to define the standards, so nothing you do is either "right" or "wrong." Fuck it. Find something that works for you and own it.

[Billie from Ockham]

Wow. Just back from a trip and looked at the last two pages (only) so far. It seems that I've missed quite a bit. Can someone give me the bullet-points, please? I love the smell of law-suits in the morning.

[Matt Cavanaugh]

He will be left with his sycophants and the few mythicists that don't understand Bayes Theorum.

Can anyone explain the problem with using Bayes Theorem in history?
As things stand, we look at the evidence and see which scenario is most likely and go with that, I see no real harm in having a formula to assess that evidence, just as long as it is remembered that we are only working with the evidence that is available which is possibly very little.

The way I understand it, using Bayes Theorem is just a tool, not any kind of definitive proof. Carrier isn't claiming any different is he?

Let me start with an example of proper use of Bayes. Say you want to bet on an horse race. The horse has won 7 of its 10 races. So the probability of it winning its eleventh race you estimate at .7 (70%). But the track is turf, and 6 of the horses 7 wins were on turf (86%). So you adjust. But the jockey has ridden the horse 4 times before, and lost 3 of 4 races on it (25%). So you adjust again.

Those are very distinct "Reference Classes": horse's wins; wins on turf; jockey's wins. And we have irrefutable records of them.

Now for Carrier's use of Bayes:

* Jesus is a member of the class, "Mythic Heroes" (a class Carrier pulled out of his ass);
* Eleven of the 14 members Carrier places in this arbitrary class he invented, never existed (79%);
* Carrier goes on to pull more things out of his ass to crank up the probability, but it's all grounded on his initial assertion that Jesus belongs in an highly arbitrary Reference Class that Carrier essentially custom-tailored to fit his a priori conclusion.

Carrier's sheer assburger idiocy really comes out when he tackles the historicity of the Pauline Epistles:
* Paul is a member of the class, "Early Polemic Authors" (or something like that -- you get the picture);
* 15 of 16 Early Polemic Authors really existed. So Paul almost certainly really existed;
* Ergo, the first 6 Pauline Epistles were really written by Paul. The others are pseudographic, because: textual anomalies I and only I detect.

That's greatly simplified. Carrier drags out all sorts of stuff he thinks he's found (nearly all dismissed by reputable scholars) to plug into the formula. And Bayes' biggest drawback is it's GIGO.

But ultimately, Bayes offers no value-add to the subject, other than to fellow assburgers and pedantic anti-theists for whom mathematical 'proof' of jesus' non-existence makes them feel superior to believers. Who gives a shit whether Jesus .78035 or .91314 didn't exist? There are real, highly qualified, highly informed scholars out there who have done a stellar job showing that, among other things, the gospel of Mark was surely written as exegesis; the pseudo-historical elements therein a sloppy pastiche from other sources, meant only to flesh out a purely allegorical tale. And you either come away persuaded by their argument or not.

[Jan Steen]

Judge: "Dr. Carrier, I understand that as the claimant in this case you intend to represent yourself. Is that correct?"

RC (Dr. Richard Carrier PhD): "Correct, your honour."

Judge: "In that case I now request you to make your opening statement."

RC: "Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, if I may resort to the usual gender binary for now. Apologies to any trans-queer people among you in case you identify thus. I stand here before you as an independent scholar who has been wronged, just because certain sex-negative prudes in the atheo-skeptical community have a hard time wrapping their heads around polyamory and semen play. But let me start at the beginning. I noticed that most of you made an oath on the Holy Bible. Well, let me tell you as an Ivy-league historian with a PhD that God doesn't exist and that therefore the Bible is bunk."

(Five hours later.)

RC: "And with this deliberate tour de force I conclude my opening statement. You will agree that I have ended all rational debate in this case. You must order PZ Myers, Stephanie Zvan, Skepticon, and Ms. Frank to award me each one million dollar in damages for defamation. You can do no other. Thank you."

Judge: "Go away."

RC: "Do you want me to step down?"

Judge: "Get out!"

RC: "But, your honour."

Judge: "Didn't I express myself clearly enough? Maybe I should put it like this: Fuck. Off."

RC: "You can't do this. I am a world renowned scholar with fans spanning the globe from Antarctica to Greenland."

Judge: "Officer, remove this creature. Please use some unnecessary force. The jury is dismissed. Case closed. My god, I need a drink."

[Dave]

Carrier isn't made out of money and his job prospects are not great.
If this gets too $$$ he will have to stop and then the lulz will die.

No. Competent lawyers make their clients shut up. Little to-no cash means they will continue to duke it out on-line. And if we get really lucky some of them may desire to self represent.

Where is the proof of competent lawyers?

???? Are you doubting competent lawyers exist? I admit they are few and far between, but I know a few.

Or are you questioning if Carrier's lawyers are competent? Then I would suggest, in proper lawyer-speak: res ipsa locquitur.

[John D]

Wow! Life is weird. I just got out of the woods and so much has happened. I hiked across Isle Royale, the least visited National Park and the park with the longest average stay. We hiked about 55 miles across the island in 6 days. Perfect weather. So many mosquitoes in some of the sites that my future son-in-law ended up with 200 mosquito bites... haha. No major injuries.

I got a slug on my foot while swimming and used my last half-shot of gin to get him off me. Little blood sucker. (I know... just use a hot match.... but matches were all the way in camp and I wanted him off me!)

Saw foxes but no moose. Saw wolf scat, but didn't actually see the wolves.

I came out of the woods to find that my wife got her forth stent in an artery. She drove herself to the hospital and drove home two days later. She is tough as shit in her own way. She would never backpack with me.... but how many people would just march into the hospital after having chest pain... get a stent in a 95% blocked artery... and then drive home.

Catching up on Dickie's antics is very entertaining.

I leave for Gen Con on Wednesday this week so I now have to prep for this. Busy.... busy... busy. I will demo our new game called Atomic Tank. The minis are 10mm in size (a person is 10mm tall). Here are some of the first demo models. Robots in the foreground and unfinished Atomic Tanks in the background. Super fun.

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[John D]

This from Sowell in our local paper. I wonder if I will lose any Facebook friends after posting it....

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinio ... /87689630/

[Jan Steen]

Wow. Just back from a trip and looked at the last two pages (only) so far. It seems that I've missed quite a bit. Can someone give me the bullet-points, please? I love the smell of law-suits in the morning.

Carrier has completed phase I of his cunning plan to restore his reputation, by sending Cease & Desist letters to PZ Myers, Stephanie Zvan, Skepticon (I think) and Amy Frank. The implication is that he is going to sue them for defamation if they don't publish a retraction of their accusations that Carrier is a sexual harasser.

And much popcorn will be had.