Happy 3rd Pit Birthday!

[Parody Accountant]

Willfully Misheard Lyrics flashback:

[youtube]-AvS4PjGTZ0[/youtube]

That was a truly awful song.

[Kirbmarc]

It went like this:

A. Odds of a false rape report: 2-8% to police (Lisak 2010). Let’s be charitable and say it’s 4%.
B. Odds of a false rape report involving alcohol: Kelly (2005) notes 13 of 120 cases the police considered false were dismissed due to alcohol consumption.
[snip]
Combining A and B together, we estimate the baseline odds of Smith falsifying her report as roughly 0.4%. Most importantly, this only takes into account Smith’s testimony; you can push it down further when you start adding in witnesses, and it doesn’t invoke any bloggers you hate. 0.4% is damn good, as you only need less than 1-10% to declare you’ve refuted the null hypothesis, or 20-35% to convict someone of a criminal act.

Damion asked him over and over to justify or defend this nonsense and he dodged, evaded, obfuscated over and over again. He genuinely seemed unable to even understand the criticisms, much less to address them in any meaningful way.

Hornbeck's wrong on basically every level.

a) as Cuntajus says, this isn't a police report. Therefore statistics about false reports to the police are irrelevant.

b) those statistics are highly questionable anyway

c) "Let’s be charitable and say it’s 4%." Uhm, no? If the range is 2-8%, 4% isn't "charitable", as it's less of the median in the range.

d) You can't "combine" the odds of false reports in general with the odds of false report involving alcohol.They're not independent events! This is an incredibly stupid mistake.

Hornbeck's mistake is like saying "There's a 10% chance that it will rain next week. There's also a 10% chance that it will rain next Tuesday. Combining those two chances, there's only a 1% chance that it will rain next Tuesday". This is wrong because two events AREN'T independent: if it will rain next Tuesday, it will rain next week, since next Tuesday is part of next week.

False report involving alcohol are a part of false reports in general. If you "combine" the probabilities for the two you're making the exact same mistake of the "rain next week/rain next Tuesday" mistake"

If Horneck were even moderately honest, he'd only taken into account the odds for the specific cases of false reports while drunk (13 out of 120, approximately 10%), which anyway have no bearing whatsoever on the Smith case as she didn't file a report to the police.

[Service Dog]

Speaking of misheard lyrics, I have been trying to share my delight in this cover of Katy Perry's "Hear Me Roar",
only to discover that too few people know the expression "hit it raw", meaning "fuck without using a condom".
Wait for the parts where she sings the song's title...
[youtube]dPgn4ZH4-Jg[/youtube]
C'mon, she's doing that on purpose, right?

[John D]

It went like this:

A. Odds of a false rape report: 2-8% to police (Lisak 2010). Let’s be charitable and say it’s 4%.
B. Odds of a false rape report involving alcohol: Kelly (2005) notes 13 of 120 cases the police considered false were dismissed due to alcohol consumption.
[snip]
Combining A and B together, we estimate the baseline odds of Smith falsifying her report as roughly 0.4%. Most importantly, this only takes into account Smith’s testimony; you can push it down further when you start adding in witnesses, and it doesn’t invoke any bloggers you hate. 0.4% is damn good, as you only need less than 1-10% to declare you’ve refuted the null hypothesis, or 20-35% to convict someone of a criminal act.

Damion asked him over and over to justify or defend this nonsense and he dodged, evaded, obfuscated over and over again. He genuinely seemed unable to even understand the criticisms, much less to address them in any meaningful way.

I'm not sure how he's done his maths, but even that wouldn't be the problem - it is the fact he appears to have no grasp of some fundamentals. You can't just pluck numbers from a smorgasboard of fundamentally different sources and start declaring proofs. That's a cunt's errand.

What we have here is well documented proof that Hornbeck is a complete idiot of Dunning-Krugger quality. He is so ignorant that he thinks his "proof" is real. It is actually kind of staggering to me to witness someone who could think they are using stats correctly in this case. Of course, Hornbeck is soooo ignorant you could never convince him he was wrong. Very entertaining.

[Billy The Hillbilly]

If we're doin' Liam Neeson memes...

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/ori ... 67/c2e.jpg

[jimthepleb]

Hornbeck believes he is on the 'right' side of history.
He also seems to beleve that the above means he cannot be wrong.
One day he'll realise what an arse he has made of himself and come out with "I trooolllll yaio gud!"

[Suet Cardigan]

It went like this:

A. Odds of a false rape report: 2-8% to police (Lisak 2010). Let’s be charitable and say it’s 4%.
B. Odds of a false rape report involving alcohol: Kelly (2005) notes 13 of 120 cases the police considered false were dismissed due to alcohol consumption.
[snip]
Combining A and B together, we estimate the baseline odds of Smith falsifying her report as roughly 0.4%. Most importantly, this only takes into account Smith’s testimony; you can push it down further when you start adding in witnesses, and it doesn’t invoke any bloggers you hate. 0.4% is damn good, as you only need less than 1-10% to declare you’ve refuted the null hypothesis, or 20-35% to convict someone of a criminal act.

Damion asked him over and over to justify or defend this nonsense and he dodged, evaded, obfuscated over and over again. He genuinely seemed unable to even understand the criticisms, much less to address them in any meaningful way.

Hornbeck's wrong on basically every level.

a) as Cuntajus says, this isn't a police report. Therefore statistics about false reports to the police are irrelevant.

b) those statistics are highly questionable anyway

c) "Let’s be charitable and say it’s 4%." Uhm, no? If the range is 2-8%, 4% isn't "charitable", as it's less of the median in the range.

d) You can't "combine" the odds of false reports in general with the odds of false report involving alcohol.They're not independent events! This is an incredibly stupid mistake.

Hornbeck's mistake is like saying "There's a 10% chance that it will rain next week. There's also a 10% chance that it will rain next Tuesday. Combining those two chances, there's only a 1% chance that it will rain next Tuesday". This is wrong because two events AREN'T independent: if it will rain next Tuesday, it will rain next week, since next Tuesday is part of next week.

False report involving alcohol are a part of false reports in general. If you "combine" the probabilities for the two you're making the exact same mistake of the "rain next week/rain next Tuesday" mistake"

If Horneck were even moderately honest, he'd only taken into account the odds for the specific cases of false reports while drunk (13 out of 120, approximately 10%), which anyway have no bearing whatsoever on the Smith case as she didn't file a report to the police.

Thank fuck Hornbeck isn't a lawyer or a judge: "The odds of being wrongly accused of this crime are about 10%. The accused has a surname that begins with the letter A. Since there are 26 letters in the alphabet, the odds of a man whose name begins with an A being falsely accused is 10%/26 = 0.38%. This man is clearly guilty.

[Service Dog]

Greta is unable to conceive that someone might have beliefs which are genuinely more important than making money:
http://freethoughtblogs.com/greta/2015/ ... hem-money/

I guess she'll do -anything- for an expensive pair of Fluevogs.

[Matt Cavanaugh]

The abuse is a mob attack, flooding our inboxes and comments Twitter mentions and Facebook pages, so that there is nowhere we can go online without seeing how little the world thinks of us. How little the world wants us to exist.... It is an act of war against feminism.

Uh, that's about you, Elyse, not feminism.

[katamari Damassi]

Damion asked him over and over to justify or defend this nonsense and he dodged, evaded, obfuscated over and over again. He genuinely seemed unable to even understand the criticisms, much less to address them in any meaningful way.

I'm not sure how he's done his maths, but even that wouldn't be the problem - it is the fact he appears to have no grasp of some fundamentals. You can't just pluck numbers from a smorgasboard of fundamentally different sources and start declaring proofs. That's a cunt's errand.

What we have here is well documented proof that Hornbeck is a complete idiot of Dunning-Krugger quality. He is so ignorant that he thinks his "proof" is real. It is actually kind of staggering to me to witness someone who could think they are using stats correctly in this case. Of course, Hornbeck is soooo ignorant you could never convince him he was wrong. Very entertaining.[/quote]
What is it about these Bayesians who think they're Hari Seldon?

[CaptainFluffyBunny]

Hornbeck believes he is on the 'right' side of history.
He also seems to beleve that the above means he cannot be wrong.
One day he'll realise what an arse he has made of himself and come out with "I trooolllll yaio gud!"

Or he will simply continue to believe himself correct in all respects, and go on a forum wherein he argues the nigger-cunt hypothesis ad nauseam and is a general contrarian despite having his ass handed to him beyond counting.

[Matt Cavanaugh]

The abuse is a mob attack, flooding our inboxes and comments Twitter mentions and Facebook pages, so that there is nowhere we can go online without seeing how little the world thinks of us.

Forgot to add, there are privacy settings & safe spaces you can use online, Ms Anders, to protect the content you add from being seen by the great unwashed, or to protect you from unfiltered responses.

There are also meds you can get back on, Ms. Anders.

[Matt Cavanaugh]

Feminists who always pretend they are being silenced, should read Paul Watson's story. THAT'S what being silenced is. It makes me very angry what they are doing to him. I've bookmarked his blog so that I can read more as it happens.

Feminists who complain all over the interwebz about being silenced, never held a political conversation at a whisper, while Karat was cranked up on the record player, in an apartment in East Berlin.

[Matt Cavanaugh]

HJ Hornbeck was dropped as a baby.

[Really?]

HJ Hornbeck reminds me of Johnnie Cochran.

[youtube]xwdba9C2G14[/youtube]

[Cunning Punt]

:text-tmi: In the spirit of Carrieristic TMI, I'd like to announce that I'm celebrating having passed the 1 year point of having no periods. I am now POST-menopausal. Yippee! No more monthly visits with it coming back again and again like a bloody bouncing ball :sad-bored:
:text-woo:

You'll have to change your nym now.

[Kirbmarc]

Greta is unable to conceive that someone might have beliefs which are genuinely more important than making money:
http://freethoughtblogs.com/greta/2015/ ... hem-money/

I guess she'll do -anything- for an expensive pair of Fluevogs.

Christina's analysis leaves out threebig factors (at least in her speculations about "Empire") : market saturation, timing and the trailblazer effect.

How many successful series can there be about hip hop? Empire was certainly successful, but was it successful because series about hip hop are all the craze, or because it covered a specific niche?

We've seen it in the past with the countless Lost ripoff: none of them was a successful as the original. TV executives may, after many "follow the leader" flops (like Pan Am or The Bunny Club , who were Mad Men ripoffs and died out quickly) be wary of saturating a niche that's already fulfilled by Empire.

Breaking Bad was immensely successful. How many Breaking Bad ripoffs have we seen? Not counting the spinoff Better Call Saul, which only aired after Breaking Bad was over, I can only count Metastasis, a Mexican ripoff, which also started after Breaking Bad was over.

Empire is a very recent series. The first season aired earlier this year for Peezus' sake! Even Lost was ripped heavily off only after its second-third season. It takes time to write and film a TV series. Christina probably thinks about her books, which she churns out quickly, but poorly plotted porn is far easier to write than TV.

Also you can never underestimate the power of the trailblazer effect. Sure, Empire was a success, but how much of it was it because it was the first well-written, directed and acted series about the hip hop industry? How many series of this kind can be seen as a breath of fresh air like the first one? TV may be repetitive but this is only true for certain products (medical dramas, crime and punishment shows, realities) not for each and every success.

In short: give it time, Greta, and you'll eventually see more Empire ripoffs. But you can't demand that an industry changes at the drop of a hat just because of a single success. The movie industries didn't just start to churn out superhero movies like crazy soon after the first successful X-men flicks. It took time, it took the Batman saga and the Avengers to convince the executives that superheroes were all the craze, and now we're swimming in capes and spandex.

So wait at least a couple of years and a few more successes of series with an entirely black cast before you cry racism and bigotry. Because execs like success, but hate gambling. They only play it when it's safe.

[Parody Accountant]

What is it about these Bayesians who think they're Hari Seldon?

Apt reference. For those who don't know, Hari Seldon is the Foundation books' (Asimov) mathematician who can predict near and deep future events, with great specificity and accuracy. The idea was to account for all variables, including behaviors, etc, IIRC.

With his great knowledge, he was not only able to predict, but also able to influence the far future directly, setting up a galactic foundation to do so.

[Kirbmarc]

What is it about these Bayesians who think they're Hari Seldon?

Apt reference. For those who don't know, Hari Seldon is the Foundation books' (Asimov) mathematician who can predict near and deep future events, with great specificity and accuracy. The idea was to account for all variables, including behaviors, etc, IIRC.

With his great knowledge, he was not only able to predict, but also able to influence the far future directly, setting up a galactic foundation to do so.

And even he was unable to predict the Mule.

[Kirbmarc]

The SJWs are incredibly impatient. One year is an incredibly long time for them, two years are an eternity. They can't fathom that society might take some time to react to cultural changes: no, it's all a plot of the Evil Privileged People. Change is easy and painless ,and anyone who has reservations or wants to think things over is a Shitlord.

[Kirbmarc]

The whole point of the “Empire” story is that they’re not making a dozen “Empire” ripoffs — despite the fact that “Empire” is a huge smash hit. The show has made it obvious that plenty of people of all races will watch shows with black casts. The execs are still not making lots more of those shows.

Peezusdamnit, Greta, it's only been a few months! How quick do they have to be?

[Service Dog]

At the end of the long, hard journey to gay marriage, let us not forget where the journey first began...

[youtube]VFBccb67yYU[/youtube]

[Really?]

Greta is unable to conceive that someone might have beliefs which are genuinely more important than making money:
http://freethoughtblogs.com/greta/2015/ ... hem-money/

I guess she'll do -anything- for an expensive pair of Fluevogs.

Christina's analysis leaves out threebig factors (at least in her speculations about "Empire") : market saturation, timing and the trailblazer effect.

How many successful series can there be about hip hop? Empire was certainly successful, but was it successful because series about hip hop are all the craze, or because it covered a specific niche?

We've seen it in the past with the countless Lost ripoff: none of them was a successful as the original. TV executives may, after many "follow the leader" flops (like Pan Am or The Bunny Club , who were Mad Men ripoffs and died out quickly) be wary of saturating a niche that's already fulfilled by Empire.

Breaking Bad was immensely successful. How many Breaking Bad ripoffs have we seen? Not counting the spinoff Better Call Saul, which only aired after Breaking Bad was over, I can only count Metastasis, a Mexican ripoff, which also started after Breaking Bad was over.

Empire is a very recent series. The first season aired earlier this year for Peezus' sake! Even Lost was ripped heavily off only after its second-third season. It takes time to write and film a TV series. Christina probably thinks about her books, which she churns out quickly, but poorly plotted porn is far easier to write than TV.

Also you can never underestimate the power of the trailblazer effect. Sure, Empire was a success, but how much of it was it because it was the first well-written, directed and acted series about the hip hop industry? How many series of this kind can be seen as a breath of fresh air like the first one? TV may be repetitive but this is only true for certain products (medical dramas, crime and punishment shows, realities) not for each and every success.

In short: give it time, Greta, and you'll eventually see more Empire ripoffs. But you can't demand that an industry changes at the drop of a hat just because of a single success. The movie industries didn't just start to churn out superhero movies like crazy soon after the first successful X-men flicks. It took time, it took the Batman saga and the Avengers to convince the executives that superheroes were all the craze, and now we're swimming in capes and spandex.

So wait at least a couple of years and a few more successes of series with an entirely black cast before you cry racism and bigotry. Because execs like success, but hate gambling. They only play it when it's safe.

Seems to me that Greta is the racist herself. She seems to have forgotten about the TV series Platinum. It aired on UPN in 2003.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platinum_(TV_series)

Brothers and record industry moguls Jackson and Grady Rhames are the archetype of rags-to-riches success after building their company, Platinum Records, from the ground up. Clawing their way up from the streets, the brothers have created a successful record company in the high-stakes hip-hop music business. Though they are deeply trusting of and dependent upon one another, the brothers approach business in starkly contrasting fashions.

Set in New York City against the backdrop of the glamorous hip-hop lifestyle, the series portrays a cutthroat and sometimes dangerous business notorious for its flashy stars with money to burn and ruthless record executives who stop at nothing to make it big. Standing by the brothers' side is their childhood friend and chief counsel David Weitz, their younger sister Jade Rhames and Jackson's wife Monica Rhames.

Empire is not a trailblazer; it's walking the trail.

Now Greta needs to wonder why she didn't know about this show. She was old enough to have seen it. Why the blind spot for TV shows about black people?

[Shatterface as Guest]

if there were more Empire rip-offs Greta would be whinging about black people being stereotyped as musicians.

Meanwhile black actors have been appearing alongside Whitey for decades.

Shatterface

[Service Dog]

It's depressingly funny that Greta's solution to a bigoted market failing to exploit profitable avenues... isn't to enter the market herself & profit in those overlooked niches... but, rather, she wants to make it less-profitable for the players already in the market... to continue to do business.

The Harrison Bergeron School of Economics.

[Shatterface as Guest]

It's depressingly funny that Greta's solution to a bigoted market failing to exploit profitable avenues... isn't to enter the market herself & profit in those overlooked niches... but, rather, she wants to make it less-profitable for the players already in the market... to continue to do business.

The Harrison Bergeron School of Economics.

Anyone with any business sense who saw a potential market would keep quiet about it and make their own show.

How many hip-hop shows do you think there will be before SJWs turn on them for being Manet worshiping misogynists?

Shatterface

[katamari Damassi]

I blame a friend of mine for getting me into Empire. He said "You have to watch it. Its black Dynasty." And it is. A completely over the top night time soap. I sometimes fast forward through the music because it's not my thing, but adding it was genius marketing.

[Shatterface as Guest]

It's depressingly funny that Greta's solution to a bigoted market failing to exploit profitable avenues... isn't to enter the market herself & profit in those overlooked niches... but, rather, she wants to make it less-profitable for the players already in the market... to continue to do business.

The Harrison Bergeron School of Economics.

Anyone with any business sense who saw a potential market would keep quiet about it and make their own show.

How many hip-hop shows do you think there will be before SJWs turn on them for being Manet worshiping misogynists?

Shatterface

Autocorrect introducing modernist art into hip-hop.

Shatterface

[SkepticalCat]

Why is it called MENopause instead of WOMENopause? Because of misogyny, maybe?

[Really?]

Funnies from Zvan's Pitposting thread:

https://archive.is/rF8Wv

John Morales says
July 8, 2015 at 6:47 am
Stephanie, your post title is sardonically descriptive. Posts such as these validate the slymies — not that I imagine you’re unaware of that, but I think that whether the net benefit of acknowledging this tactic and your awareness of it is positive is a matter of judgement.
(Slymies crave attention)

Gretchen says
July 8, 2015 at 2:21 pm
Hi John,
Just stop. Maybe you don’t realize how condescending it is to describe the Slymepit to someone who obviously knows all about them, and tell her what to do based on your understanding, but….well, it really is. Don’t do that.

Oolon, who dedicated himself to making a massive list of people he doesn't like, says the following:

oolon says
July 8, 2015 at 4:38 pm
I cannot imagine any amount of ignoring that would make the slightest difference anyway. They have a whole forum dedicated to talking about the people they obsess over. It’s not like they are going to get bored and start an atheoskeptic knitting group after a few years never mentioning them.

HJ Boring:

Hj Hornbeck says
July 8, 2015 at 11:59 pm
oolon @17:

I cannot imagine any amount of ignoring that would make the slightest difference anyway. They have a whole forum dedicated to talking about the people they obsess over. It’s not like they are going to get bored and start an atheoskeptic knitting group after a few years never mentioning them.

This. When FTB bloggers don’t have any material, they focus on the commenters or make fan art. They always find a way to fan the flames of hate. A better approach is to exploit their obsessiveness by periodically tossing some cognitive dissonance their way, deflating one of their memes and making them question what they really believe. To quote past me:

blah blahg blah blah

Periodically taking them to task is the best way to encourage them to wither away.

We just got served, you guys. They served us. What do we do now that we've been served?

[comhcinc]

On the Elyse thing;

In a way I see her point. By that I mean she made some stupid blog post and someone in the anti feminist league found it and shared it around the net, and there was a big pile on. Many of those piling on where just fucking idiots. Which I mean you really would have to be to be so upset at her blog post. It was all about her and her feelings on her own personally webpage. If it would have been published on some news or opinion site then yeah it would have been a different thing.

Keep in mind I am not agreeing with her on the idea that feminist are being hunted down and abused and silenced. I agree with her on the fact that in this case there was a unneeded dog pile affect.

[fuzzy]

We just got served, you guys. They served us. What do we do now that we've been served?

http://i.imgur.com/UlQ4WC4.jpg

[Guestus Aurelius]

All you need to know about HJ Hornbeck is that he thinks anisogamy and sexual dimorphism are just social constructs.

For realsies.

:bjarte:

[comhcinc]

Wait, can we start an atheoskeptic knitting group?

[feathers]

Hornbeck's mistake is like saying "There's a 10% chance that it will rain next week. There's also a 10% chance that it will rain next Tuesday. Combining those two chances, there's only a 1% chance that it will rain next Tuesday". This is wrong because two events AREN'T independent: if it will rain next Tuesday, it will rain next week, since next Tuesday is part of next week.

False report involving alcohol are a part of false reports in general. If you "combine" the probabilities for the two you're making the exact same mistake of the "rain next week/rain next Tuesday" mistake"

Also, this way you can reason: false rape accusations are currently very rare. Therefore, if I make one, I should be exonerated on account of their rarity.

[comhcinc]

The whole point of the “Empire” story is that they’re not making a dozen “Empire” ripoffs — despite the fact that “Empire” is a huge smash hit. The show has made it obvious that plenty of people of all races will watch shows with black casts. The execs are still not making lots more of those shows.

Peezusdamnit, Greta, it's only been a few months! How quick do they have to be?

Yeah didn't just come on last season? Has the new fall line ups even been announced yet?

And what about Ballers on HBO? Is that not good enough?

[Scented Nectar]

Miss Nectar, you are under arrest for the postmenstrual murder of S. Lymepit. You don't have to say anything, but it may harm your defence...

Uh oh. I'd better tamp-on some wood for good luck in court. Groan. Let's try again. But, no one has RED me my rights. Groan. My ability to pun ran off with my periods. No one told me this would happen. :cry:

Were the last periods any different? I'm picturing dry balls of blood, a coughing sound, maybe a wisp of smoke?

It put up a good front. Totally didn't let on that it was the last one. It seemed normal, lasted 5 days, and I think it was laughing at me a little bit.

[feathers]

What is it about these Bayesians who think they're Hari Seldon?

Hehe, I was also thinking he'd read too much Asimov for his own good.
Pity for him there's a Mule in his calculations.

[fuzzy]

Wait, can we start an atheoskeptic knitting group?

I'm in if we include crochet.
http://i.imgur.com/JUeGciC.jpg

[comhcinc]

It put up a good front. Totally didn't let on that it was the last one. It seemed normal, lasted 5 days, and I think it was laughing at me a little bit.

Pictures or it didn't happen.

[feathers]

HJ Hornbeck was dropped as a baby.

...in a large kettle of number vermicelli.

http://www.vitaalsuper.nl/cache/thumbna ... fe68c.jpeg

[CaptainFluffyBunny]

We just got served, you guys. They served us. What do we do now that we've been served?

http://i.imgur.com/UlQ4WC4.jpg

Those dumbasses put on one of the most funny shows on the interwebs then wonder why we're laughing. Just in this half of the year alone, Lulzapoloza. Even they have to be laughing at SpoogeMeister Carrier by now.

[paddybrown]

BTW, Over at Ally Fogg The Guardian publishes our open letter to CPS some interesting discussions in the comments.

I just could not help reflecting that if PeeZuss Christ had not gone off his meds, FTB could have been very influential. Imagine three or more bloggers and comment/discussion with this sort of quality?

What I'm always struck by whenever I visit FoggBlog is how Mike Buchanan is still persevering despite the amount of vitriol and abuse he gets showered with, and how they're all still trying to reason with the completely batshit (possibly a Poe?) Lucy, who remains utterly impervious to it.

[Scented Nectar]

:text-tmi: In the spirit of Carrieristic TMI, I'd like to announce that I'm celebrating having passed the 1 year point of having no periods. I am now POST-menopausal. Yippee! No more monthly visits with it coming back again and again like a bloody bouncing ball :sad-bored:
:text-woo:

You'll have to change your nym now.

Pleasantly Scented all month long now Nectar!

Anyone believe me that my name is because of liking fragrant flowers? I have some unflooshable evidence. In my video below, a fragrant jasmine is filmed opening to release its fragrance, as opposed to my naughty bits opening to release its fragrance.

[youtube]9dqCQmY1fdw[/youtube]

[paddybrown]

Hornbeck's mistake is like saying "There's a 10% chance that it will rain next week. There's also a 10% chance that it will rain next Tuesday. Combining those two chances, there's only a 1% chance that it will rain next Tuesday". This is wrong because two events AREN'T independent: if it will rain next Tuesday, it will rain next week, since next Tuesday is part of next week.

False report involving alcohol are a part of false reports in general. If you "combine" the probabilities for the two you're making the exact same mistake of the "rain next week/rain next Tuesday" mistake"

Also, this way you can reason: false rape accusations are currently very rare. Therefore, if I make one, I should be exonerated on account of their rarity.

Yep. On the same basis, Joseph Fritzl should be released forthwith, because hardly anybody's ever done what he did.

[Really?]

We just got served, you guys. They served us. What do we do now that we've been served?

http://i.imgur.com/UlQ4WC4.jpg

Those dumbasses put on one of the most funny shows on the interwebs then wonder why we're laughing. Just in this half of the year alone, Lulzapoloza. Even they have to be laughing at SpoogeMeister Carrier by now.

2015 has been fantastic.

I am hoping that we are lucky enough to get a new Civil War video that covers Avicenna's departure, Operation Avicenna, SpoogeGate, Stollznow's statement about Radford (and subsequent radio silence)...what else am I forgetting?

[Scented Nectar]

Why is it called MENopause instead of WOMENopause? Because of misogyny, maybe?

Yes. Insidious, isn't it?

[Billie from Ockham]

[Billie from Ockham]

Furthermore, it's still completely possible that Smith didn't deliberately alter events in her accusation of Shermer but that she might have fallen prey to confabulation: she doesn't intend to deceive but still gets some details wrong.

Questioning the memories of someone who was drunk is the worst form of victim-blaming, shitlord.

[Billie from Ockham]

It went like this:

A. Odds of a false rape report: 2-8% to police (Lisak 2010). Let’s be charitable and say it’s 4%.
B. Odds of a false rape report involving alcohol: Kelly (2005) notes 13 of 120 cases the police considered false were dismissed due to alcohol consumption.
[snip]
Combining A and B together, we estimate the baseline odds of Smith falsifying her report as roughly 0.4%. Most importantly, this only takes into account Smith’s testimony; you can push it down further when you start adding in witnesses, and it doesn’t invoke any bloggers you hate. 0.4% is damn good, as you only need less than 1-10% to declare you’ve refuted the null hypothesis, or 20-35% to convict someone of a criminal act.

That is some world-class stupid.

[Scented Nectar]

It put up a good front. Totally didn't let on that it was the last one. It seemed normal, lasted 5 days, and I think it was laughing at me a little bit.

Pictures or it didn't happen.

All those years and I never took a gross-out picture even once. I didn't think of it. :cry:

[Billie from Ockham]

Why is it called MENopause instead of WOMENopause? Because of misogyny, maybe?

I've always read it as Meno Pause, instead, making reference to Plato's work on virtue. Therefore, menopause is when virtue takes a break, because you (the woman) can longer become pregnant, so you (the woman) can fuck anyone you wish without risk or pregnancy.

[jet_lagg]

Still catching up, but wanted to echo what kirbmarc said. You can't combine non-independent events in probability. That's about basic as it gets. They teach it in middle school. Imagine rolling a die where the 1 and 2 sides are painted blue. You then roll a one and say the chances of this happening were roughly 1 in 20 (1/6 for getting the one times 2/6 for getting the blue).

[Scented Nectar]

Why is it called MENopause instead of WOMENopause? Because of misogyny, maybe?

I've always read it as Meno Pause, instead, making reference to Plato's work on virtue. Therefore, menopause is when virtue takes a break, because you (the woman) can longer become pregnant, so you (the woman) can fuck anyone you wish without risk or pregnancy.

But there's AIDS now. Back in the 70s, all one needed was the pill. Barebacking was fine. Those were the good old days. Catch something? A quick trip to the doctor and drug store fixed it up. Moving freckles that itch? Brag to your friends and then go to the drug store again. Simpler times, simpler times!

[fuzzy]

It went like this:

A. Odds of a false rape report: 2-8% to police (Lisak 2010). Let’s be charitable and say it’s 4%.
B. Odds of a false rape report involving alcohol: Kelly (2005) notes 13 of 120 cases the police considered false were dismissed due to alcohol consumption.
[snip]
Combining A and B together, we estimate the baseline odds of Smith falsifying her report as roughly 0.4%. Most importantly, this only takes into account Smith’s testimony; you can push it down further when you start adding in witnesses, and it doesn’t invoke any bloggers you hate. 0.4% is damn good, as you only need less than 1-10% to declare you’ve refuted the null hypothesis, or 20-35% to convict someone of a criminal act.

That is some world-class stupid.

Interesting. So even without misapplying the 13/120 booze factor, between a 4% false claims rate and the 1-10% required to dismiss the null hypothesis, Hornbeck must believe the accusations against Peezee and Tibo also to be true (as well as every other accusation ever made).

[Guest]

Thought the pit might enjoy:

blogs.law.harvard.edu/philg/2015/07/09/hitlers-thoughts-on-the-euro/

Hitler’s thoughts on the Euro
philg - July 9, 2015 @ 10:04 am · Filed under Uncategorized

I’m halfway through Look Who’s Back, a book in which Hitler wakes up in 2011 and, homeless and friendless, is believed to be a destitute divorce lawsuit/restraining order defendant (see the International chapter for a section on German family law). The defrosted Führer has some thoughts on the Euro:

> The Reichsmark was no longer legal tender, even though others—probably some clueless dilettantes on the side of the victorious powers—had clearly adapted my plan to turn it into a European-wide currency. At any rate, transactions were now being carried out in an artificial currency called “euro,” regarded, as one would expect, with a high level of mistrust. I could have told those responsible that this would be the case.

> A Portuguese, a Greek, and a Spaniard go into a brothel. Who pays? Germany.

Hitler gets a job with a TV production company but there are some problems with HR paperwork:

> Papers—German bourgeois officialdom with its petty, mean-spirited rules and regulations. Once more this perfidious millstone around the neck of the German people was throwing a wrench in the works. “Don’t you have a passport? No ID card? How’s that possible?” “I never had need of one.” “Haven’t you ever been abroad?” “Well, obviously: Poland, France, Hungary . . .” “OK, they’re inside the EU.” “And the Soviet Union.” “You got in there without a passport?” I thought about it for a moment. “I cannot recollect anybody having asked me for one,” I replied confidently.

amazon.com/Look-Whos-Back-Timur-Vermes/dp/1471263673

[feathers]

Why is it called MENopause instead of WOMENopause? Because of misogyny, maybe?

I've always read it as Meno Pause, instead, making reference to Plato's work on virtue. Therefore, menopause is when virtue takes a break, because you (the woman) can longer become pregnant, so you (the woman) can fuck anyone you wish without risk or pregnancy.

But there's AIDS now. Back in the 70s, all one needed was the pill. Barebacking was fine. Those were the good old days. Catch something? A quick trip to the doctor and drug store fixed it up. Moving freckles that itch? Brag to your friends and then go to the drug store again. Simpler times, simpler times!

I think that, because of the relative viciousness of HIV/AIDS, we have a somewhat rose-coloured memory of those good ol' STDs (then still VDs). Some of them, especially viral infections, never really cure, they just stick with you and some pop up every now and then (herpes). The bacterial ones are subject to antibiotic resistance. If you'd waited too long with treatment, possibly because you didn't recognise the symptoms straight away, the damage might be forever.

No, you don't want to go there with the Precious unprotected.

[Billie from Ockham]

Ah, yes, the good old days when you would hold it in for hours because you would scream when you peed. I forgot about those. When you always said "applaud" and never "clap" if you wanted to get laid after the concert.

[Really?]

But there's AIDS now. Back in the 70s, all one needed was the pill. Barebacking was fine. Those were the good old days. Catch something? A quick trip to the doctor and drug store fixed it up. Moving freckles that itch? Brag to your friends and then go to the drug store again. Simpler times, simpler times!

I think that, because of the relative viciousness of HIV/AIDS, we have a somewhat rose-coloured memory of those good ol' STDs (then still VDs). Some of them, especially viral infections, never really cure, they just stick with you and some pop up every now and then (herpes). The bacterial ones are subject to antibiotic resistance. If you'd waited too long with treatment, possibly because you didn't recognise the symptoms straight away, the damage might be forever.

No, you don't want to go there with the Precious unprotected.

You both seem to have forgotten that Dr. Richard Carrier (yes, doctor) already schooled us. Everyone already has herpes and STDs are not even a hassle. Just a simply howdy-doo to your doctor for a shot and you're back on the horse.

[feathers]

Thought the pit might enjoy:

blogs.law.harvard.edu/philg/2015/07/09/hitlers-thoughts-on-the-euro/

I did nazi that coming, but I've read Walter Moers (I suppose the resident (helveto)jerries know him?)

http://www.comicshop.de/images/product_ ... 1126_0.jpg

...in which Adolf appears to have survived all those years in a sewer, and already five pages after diving up again is confronted with all he ever hated: niggers, jews, nigger jews, ...