katamari Damassi wrote:Just read the Time magazine cover story about rape in college and it wasn't as bad as I thought it would be. Yes, it headlines with the "1 in 5" statistic, but when you read the article it tells you that that is the broadest possible definition with the legal definition being half that(which if true is still terrible). It also states that campus rapes are committed by a small group of repeat offenders who are not so susceptible to "don't rape" messages. It also offered a range of views from others(including Hoff-Summers)concerned about the subversion of due process.
Thing is, according to the DoJ, back in the 1980s with significantly higher rape stats from the 1970s/1980s, a woman's life-time risk of sexual assault, including rape and attempted rape was 8%. Actual rape (successful rape) is lower (about 40% of rape attempts fail).
Based on 1973-82 rates, nearly 1 out of 12 females will be the victim of a completed or attempted rape. The estimated rate for black females is 1 out of 9:
The same thing happened in the 90s when they did it again.
And these numbers are adjusted. They don't use reported-to-police crimes or prosecuted crimes. Rather, they use the National Victimization Survey because they know not all crimes are reported or prosecuted.
It's all pretty straight forward and based on the best numbers and methodology the DoJ can come up with.
But then we get the claims of 1-in-5 are sexually victimized (often conflated to being raped).
Which is something on the order of nearly 12 times greater than the NVS results. So, we look at what's being measured:
Since school began in fall 1996, has anyone made or tried to make you have sexual inter-course or sexual contact when you did not want to by simply being overwhelmed by someone’s continual pestering and verbal pressure?
So, a guy begging for sex now makes you a victim. Becky Booze would love this.
Since school began in fall 1996, has anyone made or tried to make you have sexual intercourse or sexual contact when you did not want to by making promises of rewards, such as raising a grade, being hired or promoted, being given a ride or class notes, or getting help with coursework from a fellow student if you complied sexually?
Crude, yes. Victim... Yeah. I'm sorry, I don't considered being on the wrong end of boorish behavior to be up there with rape. It's, in my view, manufacturing victims for political purposes.
Since school began in fall 1996, has anyone attempted but not succeeded in unwanted or uninvited touching of a sexual nature?
A guy makes a drunken pass. Tries to pat your ass or get some side boob with a reach-around hug. Now you're 'sexual assault victim?' Really. Boorish behavior. Not 'acceptable.' But, once again, can't let idiotic boorish behavior that any mature adult should just 'get the fuck over' slide on by as we've got to pump the 'victimization' numbers up.
Now, they do actually measure rape (with some very good, very well defined, rape questions) at the college level in the survey. This is what they found:
How extensive is rape among college women?
Exhibit 3 reports the extent of rape found in the NCWSV study. As shown, 2.8 percent of the sample had experienced either a completed rape (1.7 per- cent) or an attempted rape incident (1.1 percent).
But those numbers don't work for political hay making. So we hear one-in-five. Just like we hear all kinds of shock numbers. But we don't hear the real numbers. The ones that say, yes, it does happen. And it sucks for the victims and I have sympathy for them.
But the political process around the truth is broken because a woman having a 1-in-59 chance of actually being raped during her college years doesn't grab headlines. It doesn't sell books. It doesn't feed moral panics. And it's not appreciably different than the same, non-college age cohort.
Also, just so it's understood, it's not stranger rape. Almost all this behavior happens at college social events which are fueled by binge drinking and drugs. You avoid that scene, you avoid most of the risk. But telling women this... Well, that sexism and patriarchy and victim blaming...
