Mark Thomas wrote:Couple points. WMD were found in Iraq:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_and_w ... _Recovered
They were not of the scope which the intelligence community predicted, but they did exist. Additionally, there is this (same source): "With regard to delivery systems, the ISG team has discovered sufficient evidence to date to conclude that the Iraqi regime was committed to delivery system improvements that would have, if OIF had not occurred, dramatically breached UN restrictions placed on Iraq after the 1991 Persian Gulf War."
So if you want to be pedantic, your formulation is invalid.
For the super pedantic, the correct term is unsound, not invalid. A premise was false, but the form is valid. However, did you even read the paragraph you linked to?
Chemical Weapons Recovered
On June 21, 2006 the U.S. House of Representatives Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence released key points from a classified report from the National Ground Intelligence Center on the recovery of a small number of degraded chemical munitions in Iraq. The report stated that "Coalition forces have recovered approximately 500 weapons munitions which contain degraded mustard or sarin nerve agent." However, all are thought to be pre-Gulf War munitions.[118]
These munitions meet the technical definition of weapons of mass destruction, according to the commander of the National Ground Intelligence Center. "These are chemical weapons as defined under the Chemical Weapons Convention, and yes ... they do constitute weapons of mass destruction," Army Col. John Chu told the House Armed Services Committee. The munitions addressed in the report were produced in the 1980s, Maples said. Badly corroded, they could not currently be used as originally intended, though agent remaining in the weapons would be very valuable to terrorists and insurgents, Maples said.[119]
Now. The *evidence* that was presented to the American public. Was it evidence of badly corroded, unusable munitions? That's not what they said. They said "smoking gun", they said "nuclear", they said "clear and present danger". They said all sorts of *lies* to justify their war to the public.
Do you honestly think the US voting public would have supported a war on Iraq over 500 ***unusable*** munitions? Really? (This is not a value question either, it's a question of what you think would have happened if, say, Colin Powell had said, "See, we know they have these old, unusable munitions. Maybe up to 500 of these badly corroded things that, really they could only possibly sell to some terrorists. Ya never know!!! That's why we must kill tens of thousands of Iraqis and hundreds/thousands of our own troops!!! And get Cheney rich(er) in the process. Oh wait, scratch that last part, I wasn't supposed to say that.")
The 'evidence' they were presenting was of "active" chemical weapons factories. These things were produced in the 80s.
I'm talking about the factual claims they made and how they stack up against reality. The factual claims they made here do not stack up against the reality, even if I was technically wrong on the question of 'none' vs. 'some'. The fact remains it was a massive lie, sold to the people. And the people bought it. They fucking went to war over it, they were so convinced of the *actual* threat.
But its even simpler than that. The intelligence community made a determination based on the evidence they had. These aren't amateurs, but they're also not infallible.
Dodging the question. The question has *zero* to do with what the 'intelligence community' believed. It has 100% to do with what *you* personally believed. I'll amend the question slightly: Did you at the time believe that Iraq had *active, usable* WMDs, based on the evidence provided by the US gov't? You, Mark, not the intelligence community or any other person.
This is kinda like asking a theist what *they* believe about God, rather than what the Bible or their preacher tells them, or what St. Augustine said or what Paul wrote. I want to know what *you* believed.
They take raw intelligence gleaned from multiple sources and methods and provide critical reasoned analysis. I did not look at each piece of raw intelligence - few people have - but I did watch Colin Powell's testimony live and I did study this specific topic later on. At the time, I believed the conclusions the intelligence community. As no one outside the intelligence community was privy to the raw intelligence upon which they based their conclusions, there was very little reason not to believe them.
Okay, you're still not *quite* saying what you believed. Unfortunately, there is not one monolithic 'intelligence community'. Some groups believed there were WMDs, some did not reach that conclusion (an 'I don't know' is a valid answer, so I'm not saying they necessarily denied anything).
You based your belief off of what 'the intelligence community' as you perceived it was saying. And that was... what, exactly? Yes, WMDs, or no, not (or not enough evidence to draw a conclusion)? If by 'intelligence community', you mean the ones Bush/Cheney got to say "yes", like Colin Powell, then I'll assume you mean, "yes", you believed there were some, but not enough evidence to justify an actual war action. Okay fair enough, if that's the case.
An analogy is a doctor diagnosing a disease. The patient exhibits the symptoms of X - although the patient could also have Y. The doctor makes a decision and treats the patient for X. If the patient later turns out to have Y, does it mean the evidence for X didn't exist?
Good analogy. Let's go with it. If a doctor says to you, "This evidence, right here. This kinda cloudy X-Ray, that I had to have people interpret for me. This X-Ray is *definitive proof!* that you have a major case of X!!!! We need to cut off your arm or you'll fucking DIIIIIEEEEEE!!!!!" And you later turn out to have Y, a relatively benign condition that yes needs a bit of medication, but not fucking cutting your arm off? Then fucking YES, the doctor did make a harmful diagnosis which you could probably sue the pants off of him/her for.
No, the doctor would not have had evidence *of* X. At best, they would have had evidence consistent with X (and also with Y). A responsible doctor would say, "This test is indicative of X, but there's also a possibility of Y, so we need to *run some more fucking tests* before we jump to any conclusions. You know, 'first do no harm' and all that jazz I signed up for in medical school."
I'll give you my own beliefs at the time for comparison: I did not know for sure that Iraq had nothing, and it was only after they had failed to report anything after the war that I had come to that conclusion (that report you referenced was 2006-ish, and fuck I'd long stopped paying attention to it by then, after Bush's 2nd fucking election; by then I was already heavy into atheist activism borne out of dashed hopes that the American voting public would wake the fuck up in 2004). Instead, I knew that there was simply not enough convincing evidence that didn't *stink* to high heaven of being dredged up by Bush/Cheney in a glaringly *obvious* effort to shift attention away from actual terrorism and towards that old punching bag with oil barrels under his petty throne, Saddam Hussein. Yeah the guy was a dictator and a fuckwad, but fucking priorities, man! The US, especially under Bush, never bothered to go after the real threats and disasters in the world; instead they opportunistically beat the war drums to fit their own agendas. It was brutally obvious to me, and it pained me to see people be so easily duped by the political propaganda, *especially* the media outlets (left included) who just basically parroted whatever the fuck the Whitehouse wanted them to say. Bush/Cheney's fucking megaphone. Gah, it sickens me to recall that period. Seemed so fucking hopeless compared to now (and we've still got a long ways to go, I'm not getting complacent, trust me).
Anyway. Bit of a rambling mess, but I can't be bothered to clean it up. Basically I could smell the chickenhawks a mile away. And I wasn't alone, either.
The point of all this is not to 'gotcha' you. It's to get you to think, "Well, yeah, I guess that was a mistaken belief. Sure, okay. But wait. If that one was mistaken, what about others? Isn't it possible that the same people who lied to me and the rest of the public about X could also have lied about Y? Or are currently lying about Z?" It's a seed of doubt, Mark. I can tell you're an intelligent person, even if I disagree with your politics (currently anyways, there's still hope! ;) ), so I'm going to assume that you'll attempt to optimize the degree of truth of your beliefs as much as possible (as opposed to the kind of dogmatic thinking that keeps people stuck in theism and other dogmas). Stick to skepticism and critical thinking, and check in with that seed of doubt every once in a while. You never know what might sprout up from it.
The Iraq War was one of those 'Big Lies' (
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Lie). So fucking big, no one would suspect it was complete bullshit. That kind of thing. It's a world-view shifter. Like the idea of Creation or Hell. Once you can give up one of those beliefs in what you've been told, it gets a process in motion. Suddenly other 'facts' you've been told seem 'out of place', and you might get the urge to just double-check them, just to see. It takes time, but if you stick to strong intellectual principles, you will eventually be able to break out of any previously held dogmas and delusions. It's something I do myself constantly, and has helped me give up a lot of beliefs that on retrospect I consider 'stupid' or at the very least naive (often painfully naive).
And it connects to the current discussion of media bias, because, and I'm being straight-up honest with you here, the US media is utterly full of shit. There are a few gems in there, yes. But for the most part, what most Americans consume on a daily basis, it's complete shit. It's just that the right-wing media is more shit than the left. That is my entire point. The big lie of the Iraq war, which the media was *entirely* complicit in communicating to the American public, is just the cherry on top of a heaping pile of shit. So, there ya go.
In your construction, no analysis like this can either be correct or incorrect until the actual facts are determined.
Yeah, that's kinda the point about not going to fucking war with people over a hunch.
It's Schrodinger's analysis, both correct and incorrect while the box is closed. That's not how intelligence works, they have to guess on what's in the box based on all the available evidence.
Not when it comes to first strike war it doesn't. They fucking had to invent the Bush-Cheney doctrine of pre-emptive war to try to justify that war. You don't fucking go to war over a god-damned hunch. That's just fucking insane.
And so is this: "The key point is that [Republicans] are, in *fact*, more wrong. That's a factual statement." That is most decidedly not a factual statement and I would argue that it's impossible for you to prove that statement (and I think we'd need our own blog if we wanted to get into that debate). It is a value judgement based on your position on the political spectrum.
No, it's a factual statement. I may or may not be *wrong* about the facts there, but it is a statement about facts, not values. I'm not saying they are wrong because they like X, and I like Y. I'm saying they're wrong because they say X is *true*, but when you check the facts, the evidence, you find out that they have a higher percentage chance of being *simply* factually wrong than the left-wing side.
Perfect example: Evolution. When US right-wing politicians or new media outlets talk about evolution, there is a significantly higher percentage chance of them being *simply, factually* wrong in what they say. This is something you can measure with statistics, and it has been measured before, though I can't remember the links it's been a while. If you really really really want to push this point, I'm saying that my prediction is that the evidence supports my claim. Nothing to do with values.
And I get it, I understand that you believe them to be wrong and you believe that they don't view the world in the same factual way when in reality they are generally making different value judgements than you.
You do accept that there is such a thing as being factually wrong, don't you?
Fact: Birds evolved from dinosaurs. Do you think that's a value judgment or a factual claim that can be tested objectively against unbiased, real world evidence?
It's these kinds of claims I'm talking about. It has nothing to do with value judgments.