I won't say I wasn't warned. I know that in general he comes across like someone with an IQ of about 95 who went to college where he was exposed to reasoned analytical argument. He learned how to mimic the structure and tone and the surface details, but it's a facade. There's no actual reasoned analysis. His stuff is like a cargo cult airport.Brive1987 wrote:Just a warning that Hornbeck has a guest article on OB's titled: A Statistical Analysis of a Sexual Assault Case
Don't say you weren't warned.
http://freethoughtblogs.com/butterflies ... more-15671
In this case, he spends a lot of time introducing the 'statistical analysis' method he's about to use. It's very advanced, so he needs a couple of steps to describe it. But, I'll take the chance that the benighted denizens of the pit can understand it in one step. Here it is, which I'll state in general terms although he didn't:
If x% of a given population has property y, then the probability that a randomly selected member of that population has that property is x%.
He didn't actually have the intellectual rigor to say 'randomly selected'. I had to add that.