Brive1987 wrote: ↑
I would point out it is for Trumo to lose the election having won office.
+ is not in recession.
+ is not in a new war
+ has stopped wading a number of costly conflicts which had no end or purpose
He's still a deeply unpopular president who has lost control of the House of Representatives, and isn't well-liked by non-partisan voters. His net approval (approval minus disapproval) numbers in the swing states
(the only states that really count in the Electoral College system) are pretty abysmal: -14 in Wisconsin, -15 in Michigan, -7 in Pennsylvania (all states he won in 2016 by razor-thin margins), -6 in Arizona, -5 in Ohio, -5 in Virginia, -10 in Iowa, -10 in Nevada, -12 in Colorado, -18 in New Hampshire, -2 in Florida, even -1 in Georgia of all places.
Now of course negative net approval ratings don't necessarily mean a loss in the election. But such a negative trend in all the states which aren't overwhelmingly partisan isn't exactly encouraging. In order to win the election, Trump needs at the very least Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, then either all three Rust Belt states AND Arizona, or Florida AND Michigan AND Pennsylvania, or Florida AND Arizona AND Pennsylvania OR Michigan OR Wisconsin AND Maine's Second District (to win a razor-thin EC at 270 to 268).
If Trump loses Pennsylvania AND Michigan AND Wisconsin, he could win Iowa, Ohio, Arizona and Florida and still lose the election. With the net approval ratings being what they are, he clearly fights an uphill battle.
The Democrats do not have a credible contender. Even ‘Creepy Joe’ is gun shy to call his nomination, knowing the circus that will unleash upon him ....
The state polls say otherwise
. In Pennsylvania, a crucial state for Trump to win, Trump loses to Biden, Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke, Harris AND Warren, with O'Rourke being the weakest candidate. In Iowa, which Trump won by ten points in 2016, he loses to Biden and Sanders. In Wisconsin, another state Trump needs to win, he loses to Biden, Sanders, Warren, O'Rourke, ties with Harris and Klobuchar, and even loses to Biden and Sanders if Schultz runs as an independent.
In Michigan Trump loses to Biden, Sanders, Harris, Warren and Klobuchar, and again to Biden and Sanders even if Schultz runs. In New Hampshire Trump loses to Biden, Sanders, Harris, Booker and Sanders if Schultz runs. In Texas of all places Trump wins only by 1% against Biden and O'Rourke, and only by 2% against Sanders.
Again, these are polls, so not written in stone, or 100% reliable, but Trump isn't exactly killing it, indeed he's weak pretty much everywhere but in solidly reliable Republican states like South Carolina. Even Texas is sliding towards being a swing state, which could spell doom for the GOP if the Dems ever manage to flip it.
Trump isn't very popular with large parts of the electorate. The election is up for the Democrats to lose. Of course it's still very much possible that they'll lose it by playing Oppression Olympics and bickering over which candidate is the wokest, but the populist Trump model isn't very viable in the long run if it puts Arizona and Texas in play.
Bernie Sanders looks rather likely to win in a general election against Trump. A self-declared socialist is more popular than the main GOP candidate. You would never have expected this to happen only a few years ago.