The Trump Dump!

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3361

Post by free thoughtpolice » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:04 pm

Brive1987 wrote: “Glee” in the sense you immediately mobilised an (apparent) temporary setback as anti-Trump leverage. I don’t actually think we are closer to war (and your friends in any more danger) than they were under Obama’s strategic inertia.

Don’t forget, NKorea promised to toast Australia when they decide to spaz out. So we all want Trump’s initiative to work and we are all keen to be seen supporting his extended dialogs.
You are naive if you believe you are more secure under Trump's America First policy. Australia is a perfect test zone for a nuclear war. Kim isn't going to be bluffed by a second rate grifter like Trump.
If you are listening Kim, Australia is a target rich environment for nuclear war and if you turn that useless backwater into an even more uninhabitable shithole I doubt that your pal Trump will do much. Probably blame it on a rogue American spy.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3362

Post by Lsuoma » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:26 pm

This is the first forum I've ever been on where one regular commentator got so pissed with another that he invoked nuclear annihilation on the country of the other...

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3363

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:51 pm



Everybody around Trump seems to be lying their asses off under oath. But I'm sure Trump is totes innocent. So innocent....

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3364

Post by Brive1987 » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:58 pm

Lsuoma wrote: This is the first forum I've ever been on where one regular commentator got so pissed with another that he invoked nuclear annihilation on the country of the other...


And I’m the insane one needing help. :lol: :popcorn:

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3365

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Fri Mar 08, 2019 9:49 pm

Umm.. I think FtP was making a joke. I know he loves all bears, even Drop-Bears...
5130214_700b.jpg
(95.23 KiB) Downloaded 183 times
Anyway, humor and the lack thereof was complained of shortly before. I kinda doubt anybody wants Armageddon.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3366

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:15 pm


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3367

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:04 pm



Fuckin' libtard media.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3368

Post by Brive1987 » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:23 pm

Fox is under new mgt no?

But you are right. The trope is old and tiresome.

http://i.imgur.com/SPQ7I4g.jpg

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3369

Post by Old_ones » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:22 am

Brive1987 wrote:
My aren’t you an angry little pocket rocket. Your applied ‘tolerance’ is tragically hilarious.

Pausing your own hyperventilation for a moment. It appears your original definition for gerrymandering was indeed inaccurate and self serving. But now you’d like a micro-debate around the word “boundary”. Please? How about “no”.
You like pictures and infographics, so here's a picture for you.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... nt.svg.png
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering

Notice how the "gerrymandered" outcomes are defined in contrast to the proportionate outcomes? Maybe you should meditate on that for a few minutes before you look even dumber.
Brive1987 wrote: Let’s just agree the Democrats would like to change the rules in a manner which benefits their likelihood of seizing power. On the basis of out of spectrum demographic change. But really because of course, they are concerned with abstract fairness. :lol:
It's got nothing to do with "abstract fairness" and everything to do with what they are owed. The electoral college hasn't been an issue for most of our history because it has only failed to line up with the popular vote a handful of times. But two of those times have been in the last 20 years, and have gotten us two of the worst presidents in our history against the will of the majority of our citizens. You don't see this as a problem, because Trump validates your world view and you like the fact that he was elected. In reality, the Democrats have every right to fight back, and they are. Good for them.
Brive1987 wrote: It also appears that your “constitution [and] national concept” was until very recently euro-centric. Whatever the hell you have now is a 20-30 year old woke experiment. Your inside the equivalent of a Berkeley sit-in. But let’s not engage with the data.
Its telling that you would disdainfully compare my country to an episode from the civil rights movement.

Here's a counterpoint: we've had waves of immigration since the beginning of our history, and fear of them just as long.

In the 1860s we freed our slaves and people worried about the impact that would have on our society.
Defenders of slavery argued that if all the slaves were freed, there would be widespread unemployment and chaos. This would lead to uprisings, bloodshed, and anarchy. They pointed to the mob's "rule of terror" during the French Revolution and argued for the continuation of the status quo, which was providing for affluence and stability for the slaveholding class and for all free people who enjoyed the bounty of the slave society.
http://www.ushistory.org/us/27f.asp

In 1882, Chester A. Arthur signed the Chinese exclusion act to protect California from the coolies. We also had laws against folks who are currently considered "white people".
There was also growing anti-immigration sentiment that posited the idea that Italians and eastern Europeans were morally unfit to be Americans. Of course, the same argument was made about the Irish. Eventually, this attitude would result in a 1924 federal immigration law that blocked Italians and southern and eastern Europeans from coming to America.
https://www.nypl.org/blog/2016/03/03/re ... mmigration

I know you'd probably cheer-lead these responses, but all of these groups have well adjusted and integrated communities currently existing within the USA. I don't see the people who worried about all those heathen papists as vindicated. If there is a serious problem, it is still black vs white race relations, which isn't really a result of (voluntary) immigration.

So no, I'm not going to engage with your figures about how the immigrants now are coming from Mexico instead of Italy. The one figure that would have been relevant to me is this one:

http://i.imgur.com/NYeox4p.jpg

Which shows that the litigants I'm talking about had more reason for concern about the sheer quantity of immigrants overwhelming US culture than we do today (see the red line, which is the relevant part since it's been normalized to the total population).

Brive1987 wrote: Because I am a Nazi
Well, it's not like you would compare my country unfavorably to a civil rights demonstration as if that were a bad thing. You are clearly a much more nuanced racist than that.

Brive1987 wrote: and you have black friends.
I bet you don't.

:burn:

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3370

Post by MarcusAu » Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:42 am

When I heard Trump was going to Viet Nam - this is not the movie I was expecting...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0dZ_2ICpJE

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3371

Post by Old_ones » Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:46 am

Speaking of data and illegal immigration, here is the trend for illegal residence in the decade leading up to the 2016 election, and a bit more:

https://www.latimes.com/resizer/m4E6nlS ... snap-image

A paper on PLOS that I found criticizes survey methods as prone to under reporting. They use a modeling approach based on inflow and outflow rates to dispute that figure, but their model doesn't significantly differ in the trend:

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/artic ... 01193-g002 (just click the link if you want to see it - I'm having issues embeding it)

So there is the "national emergency" in a nutshell. A trend that has been flat or slightly decreasing for the last decade.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3372

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:56 am



Fill the swamp!

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3373

Post by free thoughtpolice » Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:49 am

CaptainFluffyBunny wrote:
Umm.. I think FtP was making a joke.
Nope. I was serious just like when I mentioned the crappy polyester clothing of the hikers I have been eating are clogging my septic field. :animals-bear:

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3374

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:41 am

free thoughtpolice wrote: CaptainFluffyBunny wrote:
Umm.. I think FtP was making a joke.
Nope. I was serious just like when I mentioned the crappy polyester clothing of the hikers I have been eating are clogging my septic field. :animals-bear:
Well, there you go. Natural clothing and cleansing radioactive fire.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3375

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:44 am


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3376

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:02 pm


I know all about the need for ASW, but there's other ways to systems test. Plus, that official got owned so bad he should have spit out a receipt.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3377

Post by Kirbmarc » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:55 pm

CaptainFluffyBunny wrote:

Fill the swamp!
Fox News spin: "The definitive proof that Trump isn't racist. He's taking bribes for political from Chinese people, would a racist person do that?"

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3378

Post by Brive1987 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:02 pm

Old_ones wrote: :bjarte:
Gerrymandering
You said: "Gerrymandering is a technique used to game the system so that a faction of voters can weild power disproportionate to their numbers"

I pointed out that was too narrow a definition (and coincidentally self serving) - the idea is that a gerrymander will "manipulate the boundaries of (an electoral constituency) so as to favour one party". ie adjust the status quo for the purpose of gain.

The United States consciously established a system that would increase the influence of small states relative to their comparative population to ensure a fairly constructed state based union.

You would now like to manipulate (without the benefit of a new Convention) the logical boundaries away from this agreement to a popular national vote. Coincidentally giving coastal liberal conglomerates everlasting dominance. But yeah. You are your own Nations proud defender! I think not. I do believe you exhibit signs of an ideological warrior.

Berkeley Sit-ins
It probably escaped you that the sit-ins were split between Civil Rights, Free Speech and Anti Vietnam protests. Or maybe it's just your focus on race?

In any case, the context used by me was Berkeley as the start of the counter-culture movement which (violently) challenged social norms. Much as the change in immigration policy in the 1990s has created undeniable demographic change and tension.

The Idea of America as a historic ethnic melting pot vs a Euro-cauldron
"So no, I'm not going to engage with your figures" :lol: Nuff said.

Immigration as a % of Population
Oh. So you will engage with the graphs when you see an opportunity? :lol: again.

The period 1870-1910 saw a continued influx of Europeans into a relatively small national population making for a high overall proportion. The period 1990-2012 saw immigration from non traditional sources make a high proportion of an already very large population. Regardless of your POV re the cultural / social significance, it is an undeniably more significant material dynamic.

"I have Black Friends"
You seem to have missed the subtle dig at your use of the cliche. Whatever. Lets go literal. Aboriginals make up 3% of our population. Less when you remove the Rachel Dolezals. So its vaguely possible I've seen one. Once. I don't know if that counts?

More seriously, I live in one of the more desirable local government areas in Sydney. And weird things are happening here. So I know all about rapid re-diversification and the impact on community and culture.

https://i.imgur.com/JIexOcB.jpg

Trust me. These people are not coming to enjoy our Anzac heritage or share Christmas eggnog. They are here for the property, the schools and to create their cultural bubble in the extant leafy 'burbs.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3379

Post by free thoughtpolice » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:28 pm

Trust me. These people are not coming to enjoy our Anzac heritage or share Christmas eggnog. They are here for the property, the schools and to create their cultural bubble in the extant leafy 'burbs.
They'll make barbies illegal and force you to eat your shrimp raw. :P

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3380

Post by Brive1987 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:38 pm

Sushi Is de rigueur. It always comes back to food carts.

Try this.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/i ... 01004a1681
One block away from Ho’s former school is North Sydney Boys High School. The highest performing boys’ school in NSW, it is similarly dominated by students from Chinese, Korean, Indian and Sri Lankan backgrounds. “That’s what really piqued my interest. It (the selective system) was so different; so different back then,’’ says Ho, who graduated from North Sydney Girls in 1991.

“Being from a Chinese background myself, we were such a small minority in the school and now it’s a mirror image — the white kids are a tiny minority. In the space of one generation, that’s an enormous transformation and I’ve tried to get to the bottom of why this has happened,” says Ho, now a senior lecturer in social and political sciences at University of Technology Sydney.

Her previous research attacked elite, white-dominated private schools, some just streets away from her alma mater, for their lack of ethnic diversity. Her latest research “is kind of the flip side of that story’’. This time around, she has taken a qualitative look at selective schools and concludes that their “ethnically unbalanced’’ demographic creates “hyper-racialised’’ environments in which everything from subject choices to sport is viewed through the lens of ethnicity.

The former selective student finds aspects of this hyper-racialisation “staggering’’: “That was one of the things I wasn’t expecting when I was talking to the students,’’ she says. “They kept on talking about everything in terms of race and ethnicity. The white Anglo Australian kids — who really, because they are such a minority, feel very white — they feel very different. And then the Asian students because there is such a majority, they feel very Asian, a lot of them tend to really embrace that Asian identity.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3381

Post by Brive1987 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:45 pm

So in short. Fuck Old Ones and his efforts to smear me with his racist tropes. If I wanted to live in China I’d move to Beijing.

But why would I? It appears the Chinese, more informed than I, want to live here.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3382

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:16 pm

Brive1987 wrote: Sushi Is de rigueur. It always comes back to food carts.

Try this.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/i ... 01004a1681
One block away from Ho’s former school is North Sydney Boys High School. The highest performing boys’ school in NSW, it is similarly dominated by students from Chinese, Korean, Indian and Sri Lankan backgrounds. “That’s what really piqued my interest. It (the selective system) was so different; so different back then,’’ says Ho, who graduated from North Sydney Girls in 1991.

“Being from a Chinese background myself, we were such a small minority in the school and now it’s a mirror image — the white kids are a tiny minority. In the space of one generation, that’s an enormous transformation and I’ve tried to get to the bottom of why this has happened,” says Ho, now a senior lecturer in social and political sciences at University of Technology Sydney.

Her previous research attacked elite, white-dominated private schools, some just streets away from her alma mater, for their lack of ethnic diversity. Her latest research “is kind of the flip side of that story’’. This time around, she has taken a qualitative look at selective schools and concludes that their “ethnically unbalanced’’ demographic creates “hyper-racialised’’ environments in which everything from subject choices to sport is viewed through the lens of ethnicity.

The former selective student finds aspects of this hyper-racialisation “staggering’’: “That was one of the things I wasn’t expecting when I was talking to the students,’’ she says. “They kept on talking about everything in terms of race and ethnicity. The white Anglo Australian kids — who really, because they are such a minority, feel very white — they feel very different. And then the Asian students because there is such a majority, they feel very Asian, a lot of them tend to really embrace that Asian identity.
Funny, here they're Americanized in short order. Next door neighbors are a double-whammy, Chinese ethnicity that lived in Mexico for a while. Dad is an engineer at Boeing, can't remember what mom does. Grandma lives there and loves to visit our chickens. Nice folk, play baseball in their backyard, their boy has real talent at it. Eldest daughter plays piano beautifully. They keep their yard nice, but not so nice mine looks bad. Quiet, American flag out on the Fourth of July. I suppose I should tell them they're ruining my culture, but I really don't have the heart for it. I have tons of anecdotes, but you get the drift. They're people. Actually good people, and good Americans.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3383

Post by Brive1987 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:31 pm

Maybe there are some differences between the Australian and American experience that you aren’t accounting for CFB.

Fancy that. The World’s a bigger place than Kansas.

But I’m sure you are not white-splaning to our Asian researcher here are you?

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3384

Post by Brive1987 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:34 pm

Old_ones wrote: Speaking of data and illegal immigration, here is the trend for illegal residence in the decade leading up to the 2016 election, and a bit more:

https://www.latimes.com/resizer/m4E6nlS ... snap-image

A paper on PLOS that I found criticizes survey methods as prone to under reporting. They use a modeling approach based on inflow and outflow rates to dispute that figure, but their model doesn't significantly differ in the trend:

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/artic ... 01193-g002 (just click the link if you want to see it - I'm having issues embeding it)

So there is the "national emergency" in a nutshell. A trend that has been flat or slightly decreasing for the last decade.
Thank Christ. The official emergency mark is what? 12 million illegals? It must be very reassuring to only track at a measly 11 million.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3385

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:59 pm

Brive1987 wrote: Maybe there are some differences between the Australian and American experience that you aren’t accounting for CFB.

Fancy that. The World’s a bigger place than Kansas.

But I’m sure you are not white-splaning to our Asian researcher here are you?
Maybe there's something wrong with Australia? And I'll whitesplain and mansplain to anybody I like. I don't buy into that shit.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3386

Post by Brive1987 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:35 pm

There is definitely something wrong with Australia. Hence my nazi racist posting history.

And I’ve always maintained that he United States is a unique militant civic national country - hence the near universal buy-in with porch flags.

This is something that’s really odd to see when you come from a place with a more brittle national consciousness. One that’s less likely to simply absorb hundreds of thousands of annual newbies who come to consume benefits rather than contribute to a fairly specifically defined identity.


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3387

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:23 pm


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3388

Post by Brive1987 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:30 pm

A nice turn of phrase.

“... in which a word or phrase is applied to an object or action to which it is not literally applicable.”

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3389

Post by Old_ones » Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:44 am

Brive1987 wrote: The Idea of America as a historic ethnic melting pot vs a Euro-cauldron
"So no, I'm not going to engage with your figures" :lol: Nuff said.

Immigration as a % of Population
Oh. So you will engage with the graphs when you see an opportunity? :lol: again.
I already told you I find that national origin data irrelevant. I don't care that the immigrants are coming from new places. If you could show me some kind of tangible negative effect instead of waving your hands and shouting "UNPRECEDENTED - Be Afraid!" then and only then your data would matter to me and other people who aren't bigots.

Here, why don't you help me understand how any of these graphs correlate with your immigrant number graph:

http://i.imgur.com/NYeox4p.jpg

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/U0Ylr ... 0bTHAFop3w

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/VPAgC ... jfttq8xajg
https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-mete ... cal-highs/

https://www.nap.edu/openbook/18613/xhtml/images/p46.jpg
https://www.nap.edu/read/18613/chapter/4

https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdo ... 094851.jpg
https://research.stlouisfed.org/publica ... te-troughs
Brive1987 wrote: The period 1870-1910 saw a continued influx of Europeans into a relatively small national population making for a high overall proportion. The period 1990-2012 saw immigration from non traditional sources make a high proportion of an already very large population. Regardless of your POV re the cultural / social significance, it is an undeniably more significant material dynamic.
Bullshit. See above.

:lol:

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3390

Post by Old_ones » Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:48 am

Brive1987 wrote: So in short. Fuck Old Ones and his efforts to smear me with his racist tropes. If I wanted to live in China I’d move to Beijing.
:lol:

'nuff said.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3391

Post by Old_ones » Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:56 am

Old_ones wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:25 pm
Pfft. Wildfires, ecological disruption, ocean acidification, rising sea levels, more frequent extreme weather events, and desertification of arable land are all a bunch of libtard distractions. The real crisis is brown next door neighbors.
Looks like I got the color wrong. Or maybe I should have been more "nuanced" and said "people who celebrate Chinese New Year but not Christmas".

:lol:

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3392

Post by Old_ones » Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:03 am

Brive1987 wrote: There is definitely something wrong with Australia. Hence my nazi racist posting history.

And I’ve always maintained that he United States is a unique militant civic national country - hence the near universal buy-in with porch flags.

This is something that’s really odd to see when you come from a place with a more brittle national consciousness. One that’s less likely to simply absorb hundreds of thousands of annual newbies who come to consume benefits rather than contribute to a fairly specifically defined identity.

Maybe you should start a movement to draft Trump for prime minister of Australia. If you lot want him then I think you deserve him.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3393

Post by Kirbmarc » Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:17 am

Old_ones wrote:
Brive1987 wrote: There is definitely something wrong with Australia. Hence my nazi racist posting history.

And I’ve always maintained that he United States is a unique militant civic national country - hence the near universal buy-in with porch flags.

This is something that’s really odd to see when you come from a place with a more brittle national consciousness. One that’s less likely to simply absorb hundreds of thousands of annual newbies who come to consume benefits rather than contribute to a fairly specifically defined identity.

Maybe you should start a movement to draft Trump for prime minister of Australia. If you lot want him then I think you deserve him.
Not many Australians are as keen on Trump on Brive. Indeed, old Donny-boy is seen as negatively as the New Chinese Overlords:
As elsewhere around the globe, approval of U.S. leadership in New Zealand and Australia fell precipitously during Trump's first year in office. The situation in his second year is not much improved: 23% of Australians and 19% of New Zealanders approve of U.S. leadership. In both countries, ratings of China's leadership are similar to, if not slightly higher than, that of the U.S.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3394

Post by free thoughtpolice » Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:53 am

Kirbmarc wrote:
Not many Australians are as keen on Trump on Brive. Indeed, old Donny-boy is seen as negatively as the New Chinese Overlords:
That poll just showed how few white people are left in Australia/how their culture has been diluted. :hand:

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3395

Post by Kirbmarc » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:27 am

free thoughtpolice wrote: Kirbmarc wrote:
Not many Australians are as keen on Trump on Brive. Indeed, old Donny-boy is seen as negatively as the New Chinese Overlords:
That poll just showed how few white people are left in Australia/how their culture has been diluted. :hand:
They're all libtards. :bjarte:

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3396

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:41 pm


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3397

Post by Brive1987 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:27 pm

Tells me that there is a distrust of the Republicans in general and a love feat for “yes we can”. Not surprising given the different cultures. How is that relevant to the American context?

The fact 1 in 4 people want to high-five Chinese totalitarianism is all you really need to know.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3398

Post by Brive1987 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:30 pm

Old_ones wrote:
Brive1987 wrote: So in short. Fuck Old Ones and his efforts to smear me with his racist tropes. If I wanted to live in China I’d move to Beijing.
:lol:

'nuff said.
Do you want to live in China?

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3399

Post by free thoughtpolice » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:37 pm

Brive wrote:
The fact 1 in 4 people want to high-five Chinese totalitarianism is all you really need to know.
They probably just like the no nonsense approach to the Chinese method of dealing with their muslims
https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/ ... ed-nations
Tell me you don't approve of Xi's no pussyfooting around approach to islam. Go ahead, I dare you. :P

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3400

Post by Brive1987 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:39 pm

Old_ones wrote:
Brive1987 wrote: The Idea of America as a historic ethnic melting pot vs a Euro-cauldron
"So no, I'm not going to engage with your figures" :lol: Nuff said.

Immigration as a % of Population
Oh. So you will engage with the graphs when you see an opportunity? :lol: again.
I already told you I find that national origin data irrelevant. I don't care that the immigrants are coming from new places. If you could show me some kind of tangible negative effect instead of waving your hands and shouting "UNPRECEDENTED - Be Afraid!" then and only then your data would matter to me and other people who aren't bigots.

Here, why don't you help me understand how any of these graphs correlate with your immigrant number graph:

[i..mg]http://i.imgur.com/NYeox4p.jpg[/img]

[img..]https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/U0Ylr ... 0bTHAFop3w[/img]

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/VPAgC ... jfttq8xajg
https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-mete ... cal-highs/

[..]https://www.nap.edu/openbook/18613/xhtml/images/p46.jpg[/img]
https://www.nap.edu/read/18613/chapter/4

[..img]https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdo ... 094851.jpg[/img]
https://research.stlouisfed.org/publica ... te-troughs
Brive1987 wrote: The period 1870-1910 saw a continued influx of Europeans into a relatively small national population making for a high overall proportion. The period 1990-2012 saw immigration from non traditional sources make a high proportion of an already very large population. Regardless of your POV re the cultural / social significance, it is an undeniably more significant material dynamic.
Bullshit. See above.

:lol:
Looks like you have a strongly worded email to write to the Atlantic.
But demographic trends offer some guarded reasons for hope that the United States is living through peak years of discord over its growing racial and ethnic diversity—even if the temperature isn’t likely to lower very quickly.
The contrast and conflict between these kaleidoscopically diverse younger generations and preponderantly white older ones—groups I’ve called the brown and the gray—has emerged as one of the central fault lines in American life. Though hurt by disappointing turnout, Hillary Clinton last year won overwhelming majorities among younger minority voters. Trump, meanwhile, carried over three-fifths of whites older than age 45, and they provided a majority of his votes.
Still, even as racial tension brews under Trump, Pastor finds a key reason for optimism. Since the 1990s, the racial generation gap has rapidly widened as the minority share of the youth population has exploded, up from 34 percent in 1995 to 48 percent in 2013. That share has grown much more slowly among seniors, rising only from 16 percent to 21 percent in that same period. But looking forward, the Census Bureau projects that minorities will increase their share of the youth population somewhat more slowly and steadily age into a growing portion of the elderly. The result, as the study observes, is that the racial generation gap already likely peaked around 2013, and will decline, albeit slowly, in years ahead.
tl/dr : old white people have to die off and be replaced. You wouldn’t be allowed to write this stuff if you weren’t a democrat.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3401

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:06 pm

Opinion
Will There Be Smoking Guns in the Mueller Report?
I’ve followed the investigation closely. Here’s what I’ll be looking for.

By Quinta Jurecic
Ms. Jurecic is the managing editor of Lawfare.

Any week now, any day now — so the news reports go — the special counsel’s office will file the Mueller report.

It will round out a trilogy. In 1974, to inform its impeachment proceedings, Congress received what became known as the “road map,” a terse document from the office of the Watergate special prosecutor Leon Jaworski detailing evidence of wrongdoing by President Richard Nixon.

In 1998, another investigator submitted a report on a president’s potentially impeachable offenses to Congress: a narrative from the independent counsel Kenneth Starr of Bill Clinton’s misconduct.

Following Justice Department regulations, the special counsel Robert Mueller will submit a “confidential report” to the attorney general, Bill Barr. Mr. Barr will decide how much of it to share with Congress and with the world at large.

Assuming that some significant portion of the report becomes public, and that it provides an additional factual record beyond what we already know, the question will quickly become how to identify any smoking guns. I’ve spent the last year and a half following the investigation. Here’s a partial list of what I’ll be looking for:

The ‘Moscow Project’
In November 2015, according to Mr. Mueller, Michael Cohen, then Mr. Trump’s lawyer, was put in touch with a Russian man who promised Mr. Cohen “political synergy” and “repeatedly proposed a meeting” between Mr. Trump and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to help with efforts to construct a Trump Tower Moscow. In January 2016, the office of a “high-level Russian official” — most likely, according to reports, of Mr. Putin’s spokesman Dmitri Peskov — reached out to Mr. Cohen about the project, and efforts on it continued at least into the summer of 2016.

How closely were Mr. Trump and his children involved in the Trump Tower Moscow negotiations, and over what period? How much did they know of or encourage Mr. Cohen’s contacts with the Russian government — including tentative plans for a meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin? How did the Trump family and campaign understand the connection between the “Moscow project” and Mr. Trump’s political ambitions?

Mr. Mueller estimated in a court filing that Trump Tower Moscow could have generated “hundreds of millions of dollars from Russian sources in licensing fees and other revenues” — an unusually large profit for the Trump Organization. Why was the number so atypically high?

“Dirt” on Clinton

In spring 2016, according to the special counsel, a professor linked to the Russian government told the Trump campaign foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos that Russia had “dirt” on Hillary Clinton in the form of “thousands of emails.” Around this time, the special counsel’s indictment of Russian military intelligence officials shows that the Russian government had hacked into networks and accounts belonging to the Democratic Party and the Clinton campaign, and would soon begin coordinating with WikiLeaks to disseminate the stolen information. In June, Donald Trump Jr. met with a Kremlin-linked lawyer at Trump Tower in New York in what seems to have been a failed effort to get similar “dirt.”


Who else in the campaign did Mr. Papadopoulos tell about his scoop, and how high did that knowledge go? Did Donald Trump Jr. inform his father of his plans before the meeting?

Roger Stone and WikiLeaks

Mr. Mueller’s indictment of the Trump adviser Roger Stone alleges that Mr. Stone worked throughout the summer of 2016 to get in touch with WikiLeaks and became aware of the organization’s plans to disclose hacked information. Mr. Cohen claimed in his testimony to Congress that he was in the room when Mr. Stone informed Mr. Trump that WikiLeaks was planning a “massive dump of emails that would damage Hillary Clinton’s campaign.”

Was Mr. Stone coordinating with the campaign in his efforts to get information from WikiLeaks? How much did Mr. Trump know about what Mr. Stone had found out? And who in the campaign, if anyone, might have been aware of separate efforts by the Republican operative Peter Smith to obtain additional Clinton emails from sources Mr. Smith believed were Russian hackers?

Flynn’s Promises to Moscow

The national security adviser Michael Flynn was fired just 24 days into his tenure over fallout from his transition-period contacts with the Russian ambassador at the time, Sergey Kislyak — a matter about which he later pleaded guilty to lying to federal investigators. When he promised Mr. Kislyak that Mr. Trump would lift sanctions on Russia imposed by the departing Obama administration, was Mr. Flynn freelancing or was he acting on the instructions of someone higher?

Russian Influence Operations

Almost every case that Mr. Mueller has filed has illuminated a different facet of what appears to be a systematic, long-running effort by the government of Russia to reach out to Mr. Trump’s world. It’s clear that the Kremlin was attempting to gain access and influence. Was it also out-and-out working to recruit agents within the Trump Organization and campaign?

On our side of the Atlantic, to what extent was that outreach welcomed and reciprocated by the Trump team, and to what extent was Mr. Trump a passive beneficiary? Did the Trump Organization and campaign understand and respond to those instances as manifestations of a systematic effort by the Russian government or as unrelated connections with unconnected Russians?

Obstruction of Justice

Mr. Mueller has also reportedly conducted an investigation into potential obstruction of justice by the president: possible interference with the special counsel’s efforts, and with the F.B.I.’s before that.

Mr. Barr, among others, has argued that action authorized by the Constitution — like dismissing the F.B.I. director — by definition cannot constitute obstruction. Will the report sidestep these tricky legal questions by showing efforts by Mr. Trump to derail the inquiry that fall plainly outside the scope of presidential authority? To what extent does the obstruction investigation overlap with the collusion investigation — meaning that the special counsel and the F.B.I. understood the president’s apparent efforts at obstruction as part of the troubling pattern of coordination with the Russian government that incited the investigation in the first place?

What proportion of the Mueller report becomes public will hinge on many factors: how much classified information and grand jury material shielded from public disclosure it has; how much of it is arguably protected by executive privilege; to what extent it details criminal conduct, and to what extent Mr. Barr may reasonably argue that the Justice Department has an interest in protecting the privacy of those who are innocent.

The Watergate “road map” first became available to the public in 2018, when a judge ordered it unsealed almost 45 years after it was handed over to Congress. The Starr Report, in contrast, was released within two days of its transmission to the legislature. With any luck, the time frame for release of the Mueller report will be closer to the latter than to the former.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/09/opin ... tions.html

My enthusiasm has tempered somewhat for the Mueller probe. He's unlikely to put things to plainly or step on Congressional toes. I believe it will give Congress the necessary lines of inquiry to take that will lead to uncovering Trump crimes more than sufficient to either remove him from office or sink his chances at reelection. In fact, it might be prudent for the Dems to hold their fire until he's on the ballot.

If you're still convinced that he's innocent, despite nearly every adviser and his charity and nearly every aspect of his business implicated in a crime, then I have to marvel. The idea that a notorious micromanager would be totally unaware of his subordinates and kids doing this crap is some impressive cognitive dissonance.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3402

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:29 pm

On the issue of Gerrymandering-
https://www.jstor.org/stable/2108706?se ... b_contents

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... st/576448/

https://www.quora.com/What-is-gerrymand ... -elections

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2018 ... -democrats
ger·ry·man·der
/ˈjerēˌmandər/Submit
verb
gerund or present participle: gerrymandering
manipulate the boundaries of (an electoral constituency) so as to favor one party or class.
achieve (a result) by manipulating the boundaries of an electoral constituency.
"a total freedom to gerrymander the results they want"
It would seem that the electoral college itself is a form of gerrymandering, especially as it artificially changed the result against the popular vote of two recent elections, 2000 and 2016. While I'm not necessarily in favor of its removal, there certainly needs to be a discussion of legal experts on it's continuing presence. "One man, one vote" principle seems to be violated by continuing the current system.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3403

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:33 pm

Brive1987 wrote:
Old_ones wrote:
Brive1987 wrote: So in short. Fuck Old Ones and his efforts to smear me with his racist tropes. If I wanted to live in China I’d move to Beijing.
:lol:

'nuff said.
Do you want to live in China?
False dichotomy. There is a rather large difference for living among people of Chinese heritage and moving to a totalitarian regime. I wouldn't want to live in China, but I'm fine living around Asians.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3404

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:05 pm

Tucker Carlson discovers cultural relativism.



Yes, I know Media Matters is biased. But it does appear that Tucker is a bit of a cunt.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3405

Post by Brive1987 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:43 pm

CaptainFluffyBunny wrote:
Brive1987 wrote:
Old_ones wrote:
Brive1987 wrote: So in short. Fuck Old Ones and his efforts to smear me with his racist tropes. If I wanted to live in China I’d move to Beijing.
:lol:

'nuff said.
Do you want to live in China?
I wouldn't want to live in China, but I'm fine living around Asians.
The distinction starts to blur, when your social institutions begin to (re)align.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3406

Post by Brive1987 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:45 pm

CaptainFluffyBunny wrote: On the issue of Gerrymandering-
https://www.jstor.org/stable/2108706?se ... b_contents

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... st/576448/

https://www.quora.com/What-is-gerrymand ... -elections

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2018 ... -democrats
ger·ry·man·der
/ˈjerēˌmandər/Submit
verb
gerund or present participle: gerrymandering
manipulate the boundaries of (an electoral constituency) so as to favor one party or class.
achieve (a result) by manipulating the boundaries of an electoral constituency.
"a total freedom to gerrymander the results they want"
It would seem that the electoral college itself is a form of gerrymandering, especially as it artificially changed the result against the popular vote of two recent elections, 2000 and 2016. While I'm not necessarily in favor of its removal, there certainly needs to be a discussion of legal experts on it's continuing presence. "One man, one vote" principle seems to be violated by continuing the current system.
That was my point exactly. The Constitutional Convention made a principled decision to privilege some votes over others in order to secure the greater goal of a consensus State union.

Seems like a bedrock issue, (re)addressing it would required going back to basics.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3407

Post by Brive1987 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:51 pm

CaptainFluffyBunny wrote:
Opinion
Will There Be Smoking Guns in the Mueller Report?
I’ve followed the investigation closely. Here’s what I’ll be looking for.

By Quinta Jurecic
Ms. Jurecic is the managing editor of Lawfare.

Any week now, any day now — so the news reports go — the special counsel’s office will file the Mueller report.

It will round out a trilogy. In 1974, to inform its impeachment proceedings, Congress received what became known as the “road map,” a terse document from the office of the Watergate special prosecutor Leon Jaworski detailing evidence of wrongdoing by President Richard Nixon.

In 1998, another investigator submitted a report on a president’s potentially impeachable offenses to Congress: a narrative from the independent counsel Kenneth Starr of Bill Clinton’s misconduct.

Following Justice Department regulations, the special counsel Robert Mueller will submit a “confidential report” to the attorney general, Bill Barr. Mr. Barr will decide how much of it to share with Congress and with the world at large.

Assuming that some significant portion of the report becomes public, and that it provides an additional factual record beyond what we already know, the question will quickly become how to identify any smoking guns. I’ve spent the last year and a half following the investigation. Here’s a partial list of what I’ll be looking for:

The ‘Moscow Project’
In November 2015, according to Mr. Mueller, Michael Cohen, then Mr. Trump’s lawyer, was put in touch with a Russian man who promised Mr. Cohen “political synergy” and “repeatedly proposed a meeting” between Mr. Trump and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to help with efforts to construct a Trump Tower Moscow. In January 2016, the office of a “high-level Russian official” — most likely, according to reports, of Mr. Putin’s spokesman Dmitri Peskov — reached out to Mr. Cohen about the project, and efforts on it continued at least into the summer of 2016.

How closely were Mr. Trump and his children involved in the Trump Tower Moscow negotiations, and over what period? How much did they know of or encourage Mr. Cohen’s contacts with the Russian government — including tentative plans for a meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin? How did the Trump family and campaign understand the connection between the “Moscow project” and Mr. Trump’s political ambitions?

Mr. Mueller estimated in a court filing that Trump Tower Moscow could have generated “hundreds of millions of dollars from Russian sources in licensing fees and other revenues” — an unusually large profit for the Trump Organization. Why was the number so atypically high?

“Dirt” on Clinton

In spring 2016, according to the special counsel, a professor linked to the Russian government told the Trump campaign foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos that Russia had “dirt” on Hillary Clinton in the form of “thousands of emails.” Around this time, the special counsel’s indictment of Russian military intelligence officials shows that the Russian government had hacked into networks and accounts belonging to the Democratic Party and the Clinton campaign, and would soon begin coordinating with WikiLeaks to disseminate the stolen information. In June, Donald Trump Jr. met with a Kremlin-linked lawyer at Trump Tower in New York in what seems to have been a failed effort to get similar “dirt.”


Who else in the campaign did Mr. Papadopoulos tell about his scoop, and how high did that knowledge go? Did Donald Trump Jr. inform his father of his plans before the meeting?

Roger Stone and WikiLeaks

Mr. Mueller’s indictment of the Trump adviser Roger Stone alleges that Mr. Stone worked throughout the summer of 2016 to get in touch with WikiLeaks and became aware of the organization’s plans to disclose hacked information. Mr. Cohen claimed in his testimony to Congress that he was in the room when Mr. Stone informed Mr. Trump that WikiLeaks was planning a “massive dump of emails that would damage Hillary Clinton’s campaign.”

Was Mr. Stone coordinating with the campaign in his efforts to get information from WikiLeaks? How much did Mr. Trump know about what Mr. Stone had found out? And who in the campaign, if anyone, might have been aware of separate efforts by the Republican operative Peter Smith to obtain additional Clinton emails from sources Mr. Smith believed were Russian hackers?

Flynn’s Promises to Moscow

The national security adviser Michael Flynn was fired just 24 days into his tenure over fallout from his transition-period contacts with the Russian ambassador at the time, Sergey Kislyak — a matter about which he later pleaded guilty to lying to federal investigators. When he promised Mr. Kislyak that Mr. Trump would lift sanctions on Russia imposed by the departing Obama administration, was Mr. Flynn freelancing or was he acting on the instructions of someone higher?

Russian Influence Operations

Almost every case that Mr. Mueller has filed has illuminated a different facet of what appears to be a systematic, long-running effort by the government of Russia to reach out to Mr. Trump’s world. It’s clear that the Kremlin was attempting to gain access and influence. Was it also out-and-out working to recruit agents within the Trump Organization and campaign?

On our side of the Atlantic, to what extent was that outreach welcomed and reciprocated by the Trump team, and to what extent was Mr. Trump a passive beneficiary? Did the Trump Organization and campaign understand and respond to those instances as manifestations of a systematic effort by the Russian government or as unrelated connections with unconnected Russians?

Obstruction of Justice

Mr. Mueller has also reportedly conducted an investigation into potential obstruction of justice by the president: possible interference with the special counsel’s efforts, and with the F.B.I.’s before that.

Mr. Barr, among others, has argued that action authorized by the Constitution — like dismissing the F.B.I. director — by definition cannot constitute obstruction. Will the report sidestep these tricky legal questions by showing efforts by Mr. Trump to derail the inquiry that fall plainly outside the scope of presidential authority? To what extent does the obstruction investigation overlap with the collusion investigation — meaning that the special counsel and the F.B.I. understood the president’s apparent efforts at obstruction as part of the troubling pattern of coordination with the Russian government that incited the investigation in the first place?

What proportion of the Mueller report becomes public will hinge on many factors: how much classified information and grand jury material shielded from public disclosure it has; how much of it is arguably protected by executive privilege; to what extent it details criminal conduct, and to what extent Mr. Barr may reasonably argue that the Justice Department has an interest in protecting the privacy of those who are innocent.

The Watergate “road map” first became available to the public in 2018, when a judge ordered it unsealed almost 45 years after it was handed over to Congress. The Starr Report, in contrast, was released within two days of its transmission to the legislature. With any luck, the time frame for release of the Mueller report will be closer to the latter than to the former.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/09/opin ... tions.html

My enthusiasm has tempered somewhat for the Mueller probe. He's unlikely to put things to plainly or step on Congressional toes. I believe it will give Congress the necessary lines of inquiry to take that will lead to uncovering Trump crimes more than sufficient to either remove him from office or sink his chances at reelection. In fact, it might be prudent for the Dems to hold their fire until he's on the ballot.

If you're still convinced that he's innocent, despite nearly every adviser and his charity and nearly every aspect of his business implicated in a crime, then I have to marvel. The idea that a notorious micromanager would be totally unaware of his subordinates and kids doing this crap is some impressive cognitive dissonance.
So, you’re putting your money down on no indictment of Trump?

Even though he is guilty.

Maybe they should hold an investigation?

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3408

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:38 pm

Oh, I'm certain he'll be indicted. The question becomes; before or after his term as president and by Congress or the state of New York. Or both at once. That would be delightful.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3409

Post by Old_ones » Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:11 pm

Brive1987 wrote:
CaptainFluffyBunny wrote:
Opinion
Will There Be Smoking Guns in the Mueller Report?
(snip)
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/09/opin ... tions.html

My enthusiasm has tempered somewhat for the Mueller probe. He's unlikely to put things to plainly or step on Congressional toes. I believe it will give Congress the necessary lines of inquiry to take that will lead to uncovering Trump crimes more than sufficient to either remove him from office or sink his chances at reelection. In fact, it might be prudent for the Dems to hold their fire until he's on the ballot.

If you're still convinced that he's innocent, despite nearly every adviser and his charity and nearly every aspect of his business implicated in a crime, then I have to marvel. The idea that a notorious micromanager would be totally unaware of his subordinates and kids doing this crap is some impressive cognitive dissonance.
So, you’re putting your money down on no indictment of Trump?

Even though he is guilty.

Maybe they should hold an investigation?
DOJ guidelines state that the indictment of a sitting president would "unconstitutionally undermine the capacity of the executive branch to perform its constitutionally assigned functions" (https://www.justice.gov/olc/opinion/sit ... rosecution). Mueller isn't likely to go against that, and presumably Barr gets to veto that idea even if Mueller wants to try*. The most likely outcome if Mueller has found smoking gun evidence of Trump criminality is that he will detail it in his report and make it available to Congress so that they can begin impeachment proceedings if they choose (or follow up with their own investigations).

*its not settled law, so in theory the DOJ could revise the guideline, bring an indictment, and see what happens in court if the are feeling experimental.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3410

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:25 pm


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3411

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:28 pm

So the Trumpian consensus is that "sure, Trump is guilty. But you can't touch him, neener"?

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3412

Post by Brive1987 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:41 pm

CaptainFluffyBunny wrote: So the Trumpian consensus is that "sure, Trump is guilty. But you can't touch him, neener"?
How about Ivana in jail and facing a broom handle? Surely at least that fantasy can be catered for?

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3413

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:26 pm

Brive1987 wrote:
CaptainFluffyBunny wrote: So the Trumpian consensus is that "sure, Trump is guilty. But you can't touch him, neener"?
How about Ivana in jail and facing a broom handle? Surely at least that fantasy can be catered for?
Uh, eww. Just say "yes" next time.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3414

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:27 pm


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3415

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sun Mar 10, 2019 10:01 pm




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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3416

Post by Brive1987 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 10:11 pm

CaptainFluffyBunny wrote:
Brive1987 wrote:
CaptainFluffyBunny wrote: So the Trumpian consensus is that "sure, Trump is guilty. But you can't touch him, neener"?
How about Ivana in jail and facing a broom handle? Surely at least that fantasy can be catered for?
Uh, eww. Just say "yes" next time.
“Flaps down”

http://i.imgur.com/UwPmd0h.jpg

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3417

Post by Brive1987 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 10:14 pm



This important thing though is that lovely Johnny Chow, him down the road, laughs at my jokes and is polite to the point of deference.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3418

Post by Brive1987 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:05 pm


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3419

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:33 pm

Brive1987 wrote:

This important thing though is that lovely Johnny Chow, him down the road, laughs at my jokes and is polite to the point of deference.
Sigh. Scare tactics by people that don't get economics.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3420

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:50 am



Coming up roses, oh yeah.

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