The Trump Dump!

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2461

Post by Kirbmarc » Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:39 am

Ann Coulter of all people isn't very happy with Trump's shenanigans:

"He lied"

Trump's anti-immigration agenda isn't likely to pass.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2462

Post by Brive1987 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:30 am

Kirbmarc wrote: Ann Coulter of all people isn't very happy with Trump's shenanigans:

"He lied"

Trump's anti-immigration agenda isn't likely to pass.
"Just keep your promise and I'm right back in his camp," Coulter promised.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2463

Post by Kirbmarc » Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:36 am

Brive1987 wrote:
Kirbmarc wrote: Ann Coulter of all people isn't very happy with Trump's shenanigans:

"He lied"

Trump's anti-immigration agenda isn't likely to pass.
"Just keep your promise and I'm right back in his camp," Coulter promised.
I'm not saying that Coulter has somehow changed her mind. My point was that Trump is objectively failing to carry on his electoral promises, and didn't even try when he had a majority.

Which leads me to speculate whether he actually ever wanted to build The Wall, or whether it was just a political football to be kicked down the road to motivate GOP voters to show up in the mid-terms. If that was the case it didn't really work.

In general Trump's promises seemed very unrealistic from the start, and likely a form of virtue-signalling more than any real desire to implement impractical and legally murky ideas that appeal to the anti-immigration crowd.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2464

Post by Kirbmarc » Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:33 am

In general Trump doesn't seem likely, or even interested at this point, in trying to create a coherent political platform, not even to win or at least limit GOP damage in the 2020 election.

People seem to think that hardcore fans are what shows real support, but they're not. The hardcore fans are likely to show up anyway, and to vote reliably in one direction. Preaching to the choir doesn't win you elections, not in a winner-take-all, two party system like the US. Elections are won by motivating the wishy-washy, the independents, those who don't care much about politics, or those who care only if there's a specific sort of candidate or issue to motivate them to vote. Fanatics may despise the fence-sitters as "low information voters" or "chickenshit", but they're the prize to win for the party at large.

In this respect Trump is the one who is scorching earth and burning bridges, as it has been seen in the mid-terms. Losing support about suburban white women was a mistake, for example, as well as being as obnoxious and uncompromising as he could, which led some people to show up just to show their disapproval.

Trump won in 2016 mostly because he was able to appeal to some people disaffected by politics in some key states, while Clinton ran a poor, uninspiring campaign that really didn't get out the vote in her favor in swing states, very likely because she underestimated Trump and her own lack of popularity. Clinton got many votes in blue areas, but in the American system that's basically useless. Trump's campaign wasn't really much better, but he was more focused on the swing states. Clinton more or less ignored Wisconsin, for example, taking it as solidly Democratic, while Trump heavily targeted it.

He also managed to sell himself as an agent of change, which is what appeals to those who don't really care a lot about politics, and promised some big changes that were seen favorably not only by his rabid fans, but also, at least in part, by some less partisan or politically minded voters, at least in some swing states. Clinton motivated by the Democratic base and those who disliked Trump to begin with, but was less popular among those who weren't fully on board on the idea of voting her just to stop Trump.

However what's happened after the election has changed things. Trump's big changes have failed to materialize, instead he's gotten himself mixed up in political shenanigans that are appealing to the hardcore fans but bore out those who don't care much about politics. He also appears to act without a clear strategy.

As a result, his popularity has fallen in the swing states. He's still overwhelmingly popular among Republicans, but he's donig abysmally among independents (2/3 dislike him and only 1/3 likes him, that's much lower than usual for a sitting president). He hasn't really motivated a lot of people to vote for the GOP in the mid-terms, even with his narrative of invasions from beyond the border. Worse still, he's likely not getting the border fences/Wall that he promised (let alone being able to make Mexico pay for it). From how he acts, it's doubtful he actually wanted to do something other than use the issue for scaremongering, which didn't really work in 2018.

Overall Trump is more or less toast, at least politically. Even with the worst case scenario for the Democrats of running someone who's exactly as unpopular as Hillary Clinton, you'd only need 100,000 less Trump voters than in 2016 between Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to hand the election over the Dems, and the rates of disaffection in those states are very bad news for Trump.

Furthermore demographic factors, with new voters being slanted more Democratic, some old Republican voters having died off, white suburban women going more blue in 2018, and 1.4 million Florida ex-cons gaining the right to vote again, are all bad news for Trump.

You'd need someone doing WORSE than Clinton to give Trump any hope. His party knows this, he likely knows this, so he's focusing on more scaremongering and distractions about The Wall to at least keep the focus away from the corruption/election shenanigans scandals. And he's lost the shutdown staring context.

My prediction is that while we'll have a lot of twitter drama and stupidity the Trump administration will end with a whimper, not a bang. He won't be impeached, but he'll very likely not do much, and lose the 2020 election.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2465

Post by John D » Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:08 am

Kirb - For a generally smart fellow you are sometimes really stupid.... and your cleverness is inversely proportional to the length of your post.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2466

Post by Kirbmarc » Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:12 am

John D wrote: Kirb - For a generally smart fellow you are sometimes really stupid.... and your cleverness is inversely proportional to the length of your post.
Can you tell me what is wrong with what I have written?

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2467

Post by John D » Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:28 am

Kirbmarc wrote:
John D wrote: Kirb - For a generally smart fellow you are sometimes really stupid.... and your cleverness is inversely proportional to the length of your post.
Can you tell me what is wrong with what I have written?
You need to admit to yourself (and us) that you have a fundamental misunderstanding of what Trump supporters want and why they might vote for him again. Even Ann Coulter can bitch about Trump like crazy... like a harpy.... and she will still fall in line and vote for him once election time comes. So will tens of millions of other Americans. Current polling has only a small value in assessing the 2020 election.

I think you need to try to get into the skin of American Trump supporters. Many people think Trump is quite vile... they even dislike him... but they will hold their nose and vote for him just to keep control out of the hands of the leftist elites. Kamala Harris... she is not gonna cut it.

Like I said... I think you are a pretty smart guy.... I just really think you don't understand half of Americans.... or you think you can somehow tell them what to think.... or what they should think.

My nephew just had a convo where he said something like "I am just upset that all of these middle Americans vote against their best interests." Well hell.... my reply was obvious..... "Nephew, what makes you think you are smart enough to tell these people what they want?"

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2468

Post by Kirbmarc » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:06 am

John D wrote:
Kirbmarc wrote:
John D wrote: Kirb - For a generally smart fellow you are sometimes really stupid.... and your cleverness is inversely proportional to the length of your post.
Can you tell me what is wrong with what I have written?
You need to admit to yourself (and us) that you have a fundamental misunderstanding of what Trump supporters want and why they might vote for him again. Even Ann Coulter can bitch about Trump like crazy... like a harpy.... and she will still fall in line and vote for him once election time comes. So will tens of millions of other Americans. Current polling has only a small value in assessing the 2020 election.

I think you need to try to get into the skin of American Trump supporters. Many people think Trump is quite vile... they even dislike him... but they will hold their nose and vote for him just to keep control out of the hands of the leftist elites. Kamala Harris... she is not gonna cut it.

Like I said... I think you are a pretty smart guy.... I just really think you don't understand half of Americans.... or you think you can somehow tell them what to think.... or what they should think.

My nephew just had a convo where he said something like "I am just upset that all of these middle Americans vote against their best interests." Well hell.... my reply was obvious..... "Nephew, what makes you think you are smart enough to tell these people what they want?"
I have no doubts that a lot of people, likely tens of millions of them, will still vote for Donald Trump in 2020, mostly to keep the Democrats out of power, since they see the Democrats as the biggest threat, for a variety of reasons. Trump is extremely likely to win Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississipi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. I'd be massively surprised if he lost any of these states.

For the other states he won in 2016, things are less clear-cut, but I think that this electoral map isn't too far-fetched:

https://i.imgur.com/PCCDE0o.png

From that map, Trump has to win AT LEAST Florida, Arizona and Wisconsin to win the election. The same political institute that created the map also writes this:
On their face, the three Rust Belt states are the most tenuous for Trump. Not only did he fail to reach 50 percent in any state in 2016, but in 2018 GOP Senate and gubernatorial candidates in all three states were defeated, including Wisconsin’s battle-tested Gov. Scott Walker.

Trump’s success in all three states was built less on over-performing Romney’s showing in 2012, than it was on Clinton drastically underperforming Obama.

Another worrying sign for Trump here is the fact that Trump only narrowly won these states at a time when Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.1 percent nationally. To win in 2020, Democrats might need to win the national popular vote by at least three points to be reasonably sure of hitting 270 Electoral votes. But with the national popular vote for the House going, at last count, 8.6 points toward Democrats, that's not such a great sign for Republicans either.
Approval rating for Trump are also pretty low in the Rust Belt states. This might mean that some people who voted for Trump expecting positive changes and didn't get what they wanted might stay home.

Florida is rated as a pure toss-up, but the institute doesn't seem to take into account the fact that 1,4 millions of ex-cons (pretty unlikely to vote for Trump) got back their voting rights there. If just 10% of them vote for a Democrat they already are more than Trump's margin over Clinton in 2016.

In Arizona Krysten Sinema won 200,000 votes more than Clinton. Shifting demographics and a growing Hispanic population (more than 40% in 2018) make it a worthy prize for the Dems. Expect lots of appeals to Latino identity there. Non-Hispanic whites, the "racial" group more likely to vote for Trump, are down to only 45,6% of the population.

Trump faces a pretty uphill battle. It's not IMPOSSIBLE for him to win, but I wouldn't bet on it.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2469

Post by Kirbmarc » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:17 am

Also there is some evidence that the shutdown might have hurt Trump politically:
Early in January, public opinion briefly moved toward Trump, but since then it has gotten ugly for him again. A Politico/Morning Consult poll released Wednesday showed that voters blamed Trump and Republicans more than congressional Democrats, 54–35. In a CBS poll, seven in 10 voters said a border wall was not worth the shutdown, and respondents rated House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s handling of negotiations higher than Trump’s, 47–35. An Associated Press/NORC poll found that 60 percent held Trump responsible for the shutdown, versus 31 percent who blamed Democrats.
Trump hit his highest disapproval on record in the Morning Consult poll, at 57 percent. CBS found 59 percent disapproval. In the AP-NORC poll, Trump’s approval tanked from 42 percent a month ago to 34 percent. The president was even down in an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll he flogged on Twitter. FiveThirtyEight’s poll aggregator shows a clear downward trend since the start of the shutdown, with Trump’s approval heading toward depths not seen since his disastrous December 2017 and the aftermath of a white-supremacist march in Charlottesville, Virginia, in August 2017.
Now, is this DEFINITIVE evidence that Trump has ZERO chances? Of course not. But it's not looking good for him. It's not in his interests to drag on with more potentially politically harmful shenanigans, but his hands are tied when it comes to actually building The Wall, which also can hurt him electorally.

He's caught between a rock and a hard place. If he tries to build The Wall, he'll be facing strong opposition in the House. If he tries to strong-arm the house through various threats, he's alienating people. The Dems know this and this is why they're not trying to impeach him, and are instead waiting for either a "smoking gun" from the Muller investigation or, alternatively, for the consequences of the trade wars to hit home.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2470

Post by Old_ones » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:22 am

Brive1987 wrote:
The current tsunami of ‘Orangeman bad’ is streets ahead of the birther nonsense.
That's because it is justified by his campaign, his past dealing, and his behavior in office. It's no different than when the evidence started coming out that Nixon was compiling lists of targets for his AG to harass and ordering break ins. There's your precedent. When a criminal sits in the white house he gets a push for removal.

He's also an incompetent dumpster fire, but that is a separate issue. AFAIK the fact that his own cabinet has considered the 25th amendment and is taking steps to restrain his impulses is without precedent. But that is his own party and his own people.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2471

Post by John D » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:23 am

Kirb - There are two years before the vote and you somehow think Trump's status will not change by then? It is just a giant waste of time to dissect the polling from Cook (of all places) two years in advance. Just think about how dynamic the last two years were.... now project that much chaos forward. You can see that these kinds of microscopic analysis are not very useful. Trump has already shown how he can win an election by pitting middle America against the coasts. He will do the same again. Just wait till Americans have 2 years of Federal and local Democrat party bullshit. These poles will certainly change over time.

Looking at a broad trend of what the voters want and you will get a more useful view. Take a step back from the fiddly details and you can get a different view.

We are still in the long game when discussing 2020. Trump has a big advantage going into 2020.... He will have made it through 4 years already. If the economy holds up and the Dems go hard left (which they probably will) Trump has an excellent chance.

Think... what will voters want in 2020? Middle America will want less progressivism.... not more. The Dems can't help but go with a progressive in order to secure a nomination and as soon as that happens they lose all of the Midwest. These polls could flip like a street light.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2472

Post by John D » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:31 am

Further - any poll taken now is asking for people to compare Trump (a known president) with a fictional opponent. Even if you insert an actual possible candidate (like Harris), people will tend to exaggerate the attractiveness of the unknown person. So, what you are really polling for is a question more like "Is there a fantasy candidate you can create in your mind that is better than Trump." While this is interesting info... it is not an accurate view of reality or a great predictor of the future.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2473

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:32 pm

All of this speculation about Trump seems to ignore "Individual 1" from the Manafort indictment. Betting on Trump's chances before the Mueller report is out would be a fool's game.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2474

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:22 pm


This could be funny.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2475

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:26 pm

Brive1987 wrote:
They’re going to crack Don Junior like an egg on national TV.”
Bannon 'the go to man' for honest history.

I give Trump the same pass I gave Shermer. Both are dicks. Neither deserve the Full on witch hunt or SJW cuts.
Honest question; would it even bother you if Trump was found to be working with the Russians in his election campaign?

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2476

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:29 pm

On the enlightenment issue-

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2477

Post by Brive1987 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:01 pm

Despite using the word “telos” instead of “goal”, Melissa might be oversimplying tnings.
These laid down two distinct lines of Enlightenment thought: first, the moderate variety, following Descartes, Locke and Christian Wolff, which sought accommodation between reform and the traditional systems of power and faith, and second, the radical enlightenment, inspired by the philosophy of Spinoza, advocating democracy, individual liberty, freedom of expression and eradication of religious authority.[15][16] The moderate variety tended to be deistic, whereas the radical tendency separated the basis of morality entirely from theology. Both lines of thought were eventually opposed by a conservative Counter-Enlightenment, which sought a return to faith.[17]

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2478

Post by Keating » Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:20 pm

CaptainFluffyBunny wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 8:28 pm
I don't know when some people are going to understand that Comey's announcement of the FBI investigation sunk Clinton. Comey accidentally put Trump in as POTUS. And other retcons are bordering on the insane.
That whole business seems like an incredible own goal to me. It's quite clear that Clinton was never going to be charged for committing a strict liability crime. Even in his speech to "clear" Clinton, Comey said enough to indicate that she was guilty. Everyone then thought Clinton would win, when the Weiner laptop emerged. Comey then had no choice. If he said nothing, that the laptop existed would have leaked, probably before the election, and the FBI would have been accused of covering for Clinton. If it leaked after the election, the Republicans would have said that the FBI was rigging the election. This was entirely the result of Clinton being an awful person. She positioned people to rig the primary for herself, she had her media contacts elevate Trump because she thought he was the only person she could beat. Her own past dealings came back to haunt her and as a result she lost the unloseable election. Put the blame where it belongs, on Clinton's hubris.
CaptainFluffyBunny wrote: Honest question; would it even bother you if Trump was found to be working with the Russians in his election campaign?
I would be incredibly surprised if Trump "worked" with the Russians in any manner that is even within cooee of anything remotely resembling treason. Certainly no more than what we know the Clinton campaign did to fund and seed the Steele dossier. It is obviously bad for anyone, let alone an elected official, to commit treason. There isn't even any smoke for that; none of the indictments (so far, granted,) have been for anything like "collusion" (which isn't even necessarily treason). I may as well ask you if you would be bothered if Clinton was part of a child prostitution ring operated out of a pizza parlour.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2479

Post by Sunder » Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:04 pm

John D wrote: Kirb - There are two years before the vote and you somehow think Trump's status will not change by then? It is just a giant waste of time to dissect the polling from Cook (of all places) two years in advance. Just think about how dynamic the last two years were.... now project that much chaos forward. You can see that these kinds of microscopic analysis are not very useful. Trump has already shown how he can win an election by pitting middle America against the coasts. He will do the same again. Just wait till Americans have 2 years of Federal and local Democrat party bullshit. These poles will certainly change over time.
This is lunacy. The guy barely fucking won his election and has been underwater since day one, managed to go down from that, ridden his base hard while doing nothing to expand it, squandered all of his political capital, pissed off everyone, and Dems have been consistently performing better and better. This is not an "anything can happen" scenario. This is an "it would take a fucking miracle to reverse course at this point" scenario.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2480

Post by John D » Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:08 pm

Sunder wrote:
John D wrote: Kirb - There are two years before the vote and you somehow think Trump's status will not change by then? It is just a giant waste of time to dissect the polling from Cook (of all places) two years in advance. Just think about how dynamic the last two years were.... now project that much chaos forward. You can see that these kinds of microscopic analysis are not very useful. Trump has already shown how he can win an election by pitting middle America against the coasts. He will do the same again. Just wait till Americans have 2 years of Federal and local Democrat party bullshit. These poles will certainly change over time.
This is lunacy. The guy barely fucking won his election and has been underwater since day one, managed to go down from that, ridden his base hard while doing nothing to expand it, squandered all of his political capital, pissed off everyone, and Dems have been consistently performing better and better. This is not an "anything can happen" scenario. This is an "it would take a fucking miracle to reverse course at this point" scenario.
I will repeat to you what I have said to many on this thread.... do you even know any Trump voters?????

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2481

Post by Sunder » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:10 pm

Quite a few actually, including some disaffected.

But even if they were all the hardcore true believers, so fucking what? Your argument is retarded and based on the idea that because some really fucking stupid people still worship the ground Trump walks on this somehow translates to broad popular appeal rather than a tiny and shrinking cult of dumbass rubes.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2482

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:50 pm

Keating wrote:
CaptainFluffyBunny wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 8:28 pm
I don't know when some people are going to understand that Comey's announcement of the FBI investigation sunk Clinton. Comey accidentally put Trump in as POTUS. And other retcons are bordering on the insane.
That whole business seems like an incredible own goal to me. It's quite clear that Clinton was never going to be charged for committing a strict liability crime. Even in his speech to "clear" Clinton, Comey said enough to indicate that she was guilty. Everyone then thought Clinton would win, when the Weiner laptop emerged. Comey then had no choice. If he said nothing, that the laptop existed would have leaked, probably before the election, and the FBI would have been accused of covering for Clinton. If it leaked after the election, the Republicans would have said that the FBI was rigging the election. This was entirely the result of Clinton being an awful person. She positioned people to rig the primary for herself, she had her media contacts elevate Trump because she thought he was the only person she could beat. Her own past dealings came back to haunt her and as a result she lost the unloseable election. Put the blame where it belongs, on Clinton's hubris.
CaptainFluffyBunny wrote: Honest question; would it even bother you if Trump was found to be working with the Russians in his election campaign?
I would be incredibly surprised if Trump "worked" with the Russians in any manner that is even within cooee of anything remotely resembling treason. Certainly no more than what we know the Clinton campaign did to fund and seed the Steele dossier. It is obviously bad for anyone, let alone an elected official, to commit treason. There isn't even any smoke for that; none of the indictments (so far, granted,) have been for anything like "collusion" (which isn't even necessarily treason). I may as well ask you if you would be bothered if Clinton was part of a child prostitution ring operated out of a pizza parlour.
That Clinton is an awful person is a goven; that her transgressions rose to the level of a crime is not. Comey was a Republican, as is/was Mueller.

As to your surprise if Trump actually colluded with the Russians-if you were Mueller, would you needlessly signal a powerful, unstable egomaniac until you had all your ducks in a row? Trump is weird about Russians. Maybe his whole campaign staff are natural liars that lie reflexively. Perhaps Trump just wants to seem like he did it all on his own, in his big- boy pants. But there be much weirdness.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2483

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:52 pm

John D wrote:
Sunder wrote:
John D wrote: Kirb - There are two years before the vote and you somehow think Trump's status will not change by then? It is just a giant waste of time to dissect the polling from Cook (of all places) two years in advance. Just think about how dynamic the last two years were.... now project that much chaos forward. You can see that these kinds of microscopic analysis are not very useful. Trump has already shown how he can win an election by pitting middle America against the coasts. He will do the same again. Just wait till Americans have 2 years of Federal and local Democrat party bullshit. These poles will certainly change over time.
This is lunacy. The guy barely fucking won his election and has been underwater since day one, managed to go down from that, ridden his base hard while doing nothing to expand it, squandered all of his political capital, pissed off everyone, and Dems have been consistently performing better and better. This is not an "anything can happen" scenario. This is an "it would take a fucking miracle to reverse course at this point" scenario.
I will repeat to you what I have said to many on this thread.... do you even know any Trump voters?????

Not the only defection by far.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2484

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:53 pm

Goddamn, wrong tweet! This one.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2485

Post by Old_ones » Tue Jan 29, 2019 10:47 pm

John D wrote:
Sunder wrote:
John D wrote: Kirb - There are two years before the vote and you somehow think Trump's status will not change by then? It is just a giant waste of time to dissect the polling from Cook (of all places) two years in advance. Just think about how dynamic the last two years were.... now project that much chaos forward. You can see that these kinds of microscopic analysis are not very useful. Trump has already shown how he can win an election by pitting middle America against the coasts. He will do the same again. Just wait till Americans have 2 years of Federal and local Democrat party bullshit. These poles will certainly change over time.
This is lunacy. The guy barely fucking won his election and has been underwater since day one, managed to go down from that, ridden his base hard while doing nothing to expand it, squandered all of his political capital, pissed off everyone, and Dems have been consistently performing better and better. This is not an "anything can happen" scenario. This is an "it would take a fucking miracle to reverse course at this point" scenario.
I will repeat to you what I have said to many on this thread.... do you even know any Trump voters?????
Here is a picture of Trump's voters. This is his net approval rating compared to every president since LBJ, by presidential year:
Trump net approval.jpg
(156.33 KiB) Downloaded 158 times
You notice anything here?

Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush both had approval numbers significantly higher than Trump's for the majority of their Presidencies and they both lost reelection. Even the never-elected fuck up Gerald Ford was doing significantly better than Trump.

During the worst days of LBJ's presidency when Vietnam was turning into an unpopular quagmire, he had a net approval similar to what Trump has had for his entire first two years.

But please, tell me more about how I have to hang out with the puerile dimwits who make up that purple line in order to understand what this chart really means.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2486

Post by Brive1987 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:23 pm

The results of Tuesday’s presidential election came as a surprise to nearly everyone who had been following the national and state election polling, which consistently projected Hillary Clinton as defeating Donald Trump. Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%, and pegged her as the heavy favorite to win a number of states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that in the end were taken by Trump.
Did you put money down on Hillary in ‘16? Still, it’s also quite possible Trump will lose in 2020.

That’s what makes this a crazy ride.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2487

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:26 pm


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2488

Post by Kirbmarc » Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:33 am

Brive1987 wrote:
The results of Tuesday’s presidential election came as a surprise to nearly everyone who had been following the national and state election polling, which consistently projected Hillary Clinton as defeating Donald Trump. Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%, and pegged her as the heavy favorite to win a number of states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that in the end were taken by Trump.
Did you put money down on Hillary in ‘16? Still, it’s also quite possible Trump will lose in 2020.

That’s what makes this a crazy ride.
In 2016 Trump was largely an incognita, while Clinton had baggage. He did well with people who decided who to for late in the game and relatively well with independents in general. He had a message of change, which is always popular with those who are for one reason or another unsatisfied with the status quo.

In 2020 Trump will be a known entity. Since he's doing poorly with independents I doubt he'll be able to renew his appeal with late deciders.

Of course everything is possible, but he's already at a disadvantage. Further shenanigans look more likely to hurt than help him, though.

Also I doubt that Democrats will be making the mistake of taking the Rust Belt for granted twice.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2489

Post by John D » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:01 am

Old_ones wrote: But please, tell me more about how I have to hang out with the puerile dimwits who make up that purple line in order to understand what this chart really means.
You do realize that you are proving my point...right?.... that you do not understand Trump voters. and.... you don't even care to understand them.... yet you think you are some kind of expert on this topic. Whatever.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2490

Post by Lsuoma » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:36 am

I want to say a big "Thanks" to all the Pitters who are religiously (SWIDT?) keeping the Trumporama stuff off the main thread.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2491

Post by Kirbmarc » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:13 am

John D wrote:
Old_ones wrote: But please, tell me more about how I have to hang out with the puerile dimwits who make up that purple line in order to understand what this chart really means.
You do realize that you are proving my point...right?.... that you do not understand Trump voters. and.... you don't even care to understand them.... yet you think you are some kind of expert on this topic. Whatever.
Isn't this the same argument you could make about religion, though, that you need to "truly understand it" before you criticize it?

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2492

Post by John D » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:27 am

Kirbmarc wrote:
John D wrote:
Old_ones wrote: But please, tell me more about how I have to hang out with the puerile dimwits who make up that purple line in order to understand what this chart really means.
You do realize that you are proving my point...right?.... that you do not understand Trump voters. and.... you don't even care to understand them.... yet you think you are some kind of expert on this topic. Whatever.
Isn't this the same argument you could make about religion, though, that you need to "truly understand it" before you criticize it?
Well.... it is similar in a way. Youall remind me of all the atheists who think religious people are idiots. They are not idiots. They have a different way of viewing how the universe works.... but their view is complex, useful, and very well integrated.

This is also the case with many (not all) Trump voters. Some are "puerile dimwits" but many have a set of well integrated views of how they vote and what they want their government to do (on not do).

and really... don't you think it is important to know what a religious person feels and thinks if you wish to predict their behavior?

For example.... Religious voters often dislike Trump.... this shows up in the polls. But... almost all of them will hold their nose and vote Trump if they think it will get them the SCOTUS nominee that they want. This happened in 2016... and it is quite possible to happen in 2020. Many people will simultaneously dislike Trump and still vote for him. Especially if the Dem nominee is a leftist.... which is likely.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2493

Post by Kirbmarc » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:47 am

John D wrote:
Kirbmarc wrote:
John D wrote:
Old_ones wrote: But please, tell me more about how I have to hang out with the puerile dimwits who make up that purple line in order to understand what this chart really means.
You do realize that you are proving my point...right?.... that you do not understand Trump voters. and.... you don't even care to understand them.... yet you think you are some kind of expert on this topic. Whatever.
Isn't this the same argument you could make about religion, though, that you need to "truly understand it" before you criticize it?
Well.... it is similar in a way. Youall remind me of all the atheists who think religious people are idiots. They are not idiots. They have a different way of viewing how the universe works.... but their view is complex, useful, and very well integrated.

This is also the case with many (not all) Trump voters. Some are "puerile dimwits" but many have a set of well integrated views of how they vote and what they want their government to do (on not do).

and really... don't you think it is important to know what a religious person feels and thinks if you wish to predict their behavior?

For example.... Religious voters often dislike Trump.... this shows up in the polls. But... almost all of them will hold their nose and vote Trump if they think it will get them the SCOTUS nominee that they want. This happened in 2016... and it is quite possible to happen in 2020. Many people will simultaneously dislike Trump and still vote for him. Especially if the Dem nominee is a leftist.... which is likely.
I don't think that all religious people are idiots, or that all Trump voters are idiots. I think that, at this point, they are very misguided and have very flawed core assumptions. They can rationalize their choices, even very well if needed to. The problems are the dogmas, the truths you can't question ("there is a god" vs "the Democrats are always worse than Trump").

Creationists aren't all idiots, some are pretty clever in their rationalizations of their dogmas (even though they ignore or rationalize away loads of evidence). Their dogmas (i.e. "the Flood happened" or "inter-species evolution is impossible") are the problem.

I agree that a lot of people voted for Trump in 2016 because they saw him as an agent of change, or because they thought that Clinton was worse, even though they disliked Trump. I also think that a lot of them will vote for Trump in 2020, too. The vast majority of traditionally red states will likely stay red.

I just disagree that he'll have the same amount of support he had in 2016, and since he won 2016 by quite small margins, especially in the Rust Belt, he's not likely to win. The GOP losses in the mid-terms confirm this, just like demographic factors and ratings/polls.

Some people will always show up vote for a Democratic candidate, or for a Republican candidate, in a two party-system like the US. It's those who are unsure, or less partisan, or normally not so interested in voting, who decide the outcome of the election. I don't see Trump being able to capture the votes of the independents, or the late deciders, or the disaffected, like he did in SOME states in 2016.

It'd take a truly awful Democratic candidate, someone like Brianna Wu, for Trump to have good chances of winning.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2494

Post by Kirbmarc » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:57 am

Hell, I don't think all SocJus fans are idiots. Critical Race Theory is actually rather complex, and Intersectionality even more so. The problem is with their core dogmas, like Standpoint Theory, or Feminist Epistemology, or the (often undeclared) assumption of the strong version of the Sapir-Whorf hypothesis ("languages DETERMINES thought"), or the Blank State reduction ("every psychological or social difference between groups is Just A Social Construct, people are infinitely malleable and plastic") or the assumption that psychological pain and physical harm are exactly the same ("words are violence").

I don't need to know SocJus fans in person and in an intimate way to understand why they do what they do on a LARGE scale (it's different if you talk about PERSONAL motivations).

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2495

Post by Old_ones » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:06 am

John D wrote:
Old_ones wrote: But please, tell me more about how I have to hang out with the puerile dimwits who make up that purple line in order to understand what this chart really means.
You do realize that you are proving my point...right?.... that you do not understand Trump voters. and.... you don't even care to understand them.... yet you think you are some kind of expert on this topic. Whatever.
My point has nothing to do with understanding them. The point is that Trump's approval is very stable, and very low relative to other presidents. Most presidents only touch his line at the very lowest points of their first term. Three presidents on that list have lost reelection (and LBJ declined to seek reelection which I don't think is relevant). My point is that Trump can't win the presidency if only 35 - 40% of the country votes for him, because a solid majority of the country has disapproved of him since his second month in office. I don't have to understand what makes them drool over a Russian asset with an IQ around room temperature in order to count them. Unless those people clone themselves, the Democrats don't need to please them in order to win.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2496

Post by Old_ones » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:30 am

John D wrote: For example.... Religious voters often dislike Trump.... this shows up in the polls. But... almost all of them will hold their nose and vote Trump if they think it will get them the SCOTUS nominee that they want. This happened in 2016... and it is quite possible to happen in 2020. Many people will simultaneously dislike Trump and still vote for him. Especially if the Dem nominee is a leftist.... which is likely.
You are only thinking about half of the equation here. There are nose-holding voters who pull the lever for democrats too.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2497

Post by Kirbmarc » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:46 am

Old_ones wrote:
John D wrote: For example.... Religious voters often dislike Trump.... this shows up in the polls. But... almost all of them will hold their nose and vote Trump if they think it will get them the SCOTUS nominee that they want. This happened in 2016... and it is quite possible to happen in 2020. Many people will simultaneously dislike Trump and still vote for him. Especially if the Dem nominee is a leftist.... which is likely.
You are only thinking about half of the equation here. There are nose-holding voters who pull the lever for democrats too.
Approval of Trump is down to slightly less than one third among independents (the people who are more likely to be nose-holding voters).

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2498

Post by John D » Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:33 am

Kirbmarc wrote:
Old_ones wrote:
John D wrote: For example.... Religious voters often dislike Trump.... this shows up in the polls. But... almost all of them will hold their nose and vote Trump if they think it will get them the SCOTUS nominee that they want. This happened in 2016... and it is quite possible to happen in 2020. Many people will simultaneously dislike Trump and still vote for him. Especially if the Dem nominee is a leftist.... which is likely.
You are only thinking about half of the equation here. There are nose-holding voters who pull the lever for democrats too.
Approval of Trump is down to slightly less than one third among independents (the people who are more likely to be nose-holding voters).
See prior comments.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2499

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:14 pm



A very stable genius. This can't possibly have any very serious consequences, no siree.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2500

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:55 pm


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2501

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:00 pm


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2502

Post by Kirbmarc » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:46 pm

Did this actually happen? Or is it just a meme?

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2503

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:21 am

Kirbmarc wrote:
Did this actually happen? Or is it just a meme?
This actually happened. A good many people wanted someone, anyone who would shake up Washington DC. Independents who supported Bernie ended up supporting Trump, especially when it was revealed how the DNC had treated Sanders.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2504

Post by Kirbmarc » Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:43 am

CaptainFluffyBunny wrote: Report this post Quote #2504 Unread post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:21 pm
Kirbmarc wrote: ↑
CaptainFluffyBunny wrote: ↑

Did this actually happen? Or is it just a meme?
This actually happened. A good many people wanted someone, anyone who would shake up Washington DC. Independents who supported Bernie ended up supporting Trump, especially when it wa
Well, hopefully the disasters of the Trump administration, and the callous disregard for the livelihood of government employees in the name of "the wall", will lead those people to understand how another round of Trump would be a disaster.

As I've written many times independents seem not to like Trump too much now: his approval rating with independents is down to only 31%, according to Gallup. If those independents were one of the reasons why Trump won he's definitely at a disadvantage.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2505

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:06 am



Interesting if true. The Orange tantrum would be spectacular.
:popcorn:

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2506

Post by Kirbmarc » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:56 am

CaptainFluffyBunny wrote:

Interesting if true. The Orange tantrum would be spectacular.
:popcorn:
“Just say no. No more Twitter.”

“This is crazy. This has to stop”

256-D chess.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2507

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:16 pm


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2508

Post by Brive1987 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:48 pm

Two writers for the conservative website RedState have announced they are leaving the publication, saying they were not allowed to criticize President Trump

:lol: :lol:

And in other news.


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2509

Post by Brive1987 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:30 pm


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2510

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:47 pm

Brive1987 wrote:
https://www.politifact.com/facebook-fac ... rs-abort-/
I assume, since you're in favor of saving lives, that refugees in demonstrable danger should be allowed to immigrate into the western world?

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2511

Post by Sunder » Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:45 am

Almost all late-term abortions are wanted pregnancies where something went wrong late in the process. Pregnancy sucks and no woman who doesn't want to be pregnant would choose to suffer through it for months on end just to abort at the last minute. Especially will all the fucking legal hurdles Republicans have put in place to make it as difficult as possible, you start trying to get one ASAP if you don't want a kid.

God damn it's fucking depressing but also hilarious to watch Pitizens morph into the fucking caricatures of Republicans that the likes of Peezy and Friends dunk on because they're literally the only people in the world more pathetic than themselves.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2512

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:17 pm

You can find a lit of former pitizens on Twitter. Skeptickle, Gefan, Jan Steen...all firmly anti-Trump. I think the Trump support took a lot of pitters by surprise, they found it disheartening and left.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2513

Post by Brive1987 » Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:32 pm

Sunder wrote: Almost all late-term abortions are wanted pregnancies where something went wrong late in the process. Pregnancy sucks and no woman who doesn't want to be pregnant would choose to suffer through it for months on end just to abort at the last minute. Especially will all the fucking legal hurdles Republicans have put in place to make it as difficult as possible, you start trying to get one ASAP if you don't want a kid.

God damn it's fucking depressing but also hilarious to watch Pitizens morph into the fucking caricatures of Republicans that the likes of Peezy and Friends dunk on because they're literally the only people in the world more pathetic than themselves.
The point was that Trump was right, despite being derided at the time. Democrats had an unstated agenda of loosening this law to reduce the “fucking legal hurdles” around in vitro destruction.

The TDS on display here is as amusing as the election night videos of depressed SJWs.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2514

Post by Brive1987 » Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:34 pm

CaptainFluffyBunny wrote: You can find a lit of former pitizens on Twitter. Skeptickle, Gefan, Jan Steen...all firmly anti-Trump. I think the Trump support took a lot of pitters by surprise, they found it disheartening and left.
I think you need a timeline, you are inventing history for partisan gain. Trump lite.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2515

Post by Brive1987 » Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:49 pm


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2516

Post by Kirbmarc » Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:57 pm

Brive1987 wrote:
Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:49 pm
This was inevitable. The Trump right is very ready much to exploit SocJus outrage campaigns to undermine Democratic political figures. They already did it with Al Franken and the Big Outrage over his picture where he pretended to grope a woman. Northam will likely be forced to resign.

But if the Trumpkins think that this will undermine the Democratic party or the SocJus, they'll be sorely mistaken. They're only feeding the beast and making it stronger. So much for defending freedoms from the authoritarian left.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2517

Post by Kirbmarc » Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:59 pm

Brive1987 wrote:
CaptainFluffyBunny wrote: You can find a lit of former pitizens on Twitter. Skeptickle, Gefan, Jan Steen...all firmly anti-Trump. I think the Trump support took a lot of pitters by surprise, they found it disheartening and left.
Jan Steen left over Brexit, but he was getting upset with the general rightward shift of the Pit.
I think you need a timeline, you are inventing history for partisan gain. Trump lite.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2518

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:16 pm

Brive1987 wrote:
CaptainFluffyBunny wrote: You can find a lit of former pitizens on Twitter. Skeptickle, Gefan, Jan Steen...all firmly anti-Trump. I think the Trump support took a lot of pitters by surprise, they found it disheartening and left.
I think you need a timeline, you are inventing history for partisan gain. Trump lite.
What dafuq you on about? What am I inventing?

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2519

Post by Brive1987 » Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:16 pm

Kirbmarc wrote:
Brive1987 wrote:
CaptainFluffyBunny wrote: You can find a lit of former pitizens on Twitter. Skeptickle, Gefan, Jan Steen...all firmly anti-Trump. I think the Trump support took a lot of pitters by surprise, they found it disheartening and left.
Jan Steen left over Brexit, but he was getting upset with the general rightward shift of the Pit.
I think you need a timeline, you are inventing history for partisan gain. Trump lite.
You need to debork your quote. I’d be wary of casting aspersions (on other peoples behalf) that they are echo chamber seeking snowflakes.

Re Northam, Jesus makes more sense than you. You’d support the left dude with blackface but crucify KMan with no direct evidence?

Hack.




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Re: The Trump Dump!

#2520

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny » Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:19 pm


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