The Trump Dump!

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Brive1987
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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3901

Post by Brive1987 »

CaptainFluffyBunny wrote: Anybody still supporting Trump as a good POTUS after seeing what he's done and said to date is a cultist. Change my mind.
I would never presume to tilt at your windmill.

I would point out it is for Trumo to lose the election having won office.

America
+ is not in recession.
+ is not in a new war
+ has stopped wading a number of costly conflicts which had no end or purpose

The Democrats do not have a credible contender. Even ‘Creepy Joe’ is gun shy to call his nomination, knowing the circus that will unleash upon him ....

Ergo, Trump’s legacy is not yet there to be written.

http://i.imgur.com/n8mKnC9.jpg

Brive1987
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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3902

Post by Brive1987 »

Here is quote from a mainstream source.

“Where race [is seen] as the primary basis of social affiliation and a legitimate means for making claims on political power."

Was this (positively) discussing:
1. ‘Black lives matter’ or ...
2. Biden’s perspective on black consciousness in the context of encouraging political participation or ...
3. was it part of a negative spin on the alt right and Jared Taylor?

Pick one and explain why the other two choices make less sense.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3903

Post by Kirbmarc »

Brive1987 wrote: I would point out it is for Trumo to lose the election having won office.

America
+ is not in recession.
+ is not in a new war
+ has stopped wading a number of costly conflicts which had no end or purpose
He's still a deeply unpopular president who has lost control of the House of Representatives, and isn't well-liked by non-partisan voters. His net approval (approval minus disapproval) numbers in the swing states (the only states that really count in the Electoral College system) are pretty abysmal: -14 in Wisconsin, -15 in Michigan, -7 in Pennsylvania (all states he won in 2016 by razor-thin margins), -6 in Arizona, -5 in Ohio, -5 in Virginia, -10 in Iowa, -10 in Nevada, -12 in Colorado, -18 in New Hampshire, -2 in Florida, even -1 in Georgia of all places.

Now of course negative net approval ratings don't necessarily mean a loss in the election. But such a negative trend in all the states which aren't overwhelmingly partisan isn't exactly encouraging. In order to win the election, Trump needs at the very least Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, then either all three Rust Belt states AND Arizona, or Florida AND Michigan AND Pennsylvania, or Florida AND Arizona AND Pennsylvania OR Michigan OR Wisconsin AND Maine's Second District (to win a razor-thin EC at 270 to 268).

If Trump loses Pennsylvania AND Michigan AND Wisconsin, he could win Iowa, Ohio, Arizona and Florida and still lose the election. With the net approval ratings being what they are, he clearly fights an uphill battle.
The Democrats do not have a credible contender. Even ‘Creepy Joe’ is gun shy to call his nomination, knowing the circus that will unleash upon him ....
The state polls say otherwise. In Pennsylvania, a crucial state for Trump to win, Trump loses to Biden, Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke, Harris AND Warren, with O'Rourke being the weakest candidate. In Iowa, which Trump won by ten points in 2016, he loses to Biden and Sanders. In Wisconsin, another state Trump needs to win, he loses to Biden, Sanders, Warren, O'Rourke, ties with Harris and Klobuchar, and even loses to Biden and Sanders if Schultz runs as an independent.

In Michigan Trump loses to Biden, Sanders, Harris, Warren and Klobuchar, and again to Biden and Sanders even if Schultz runs. In New Hampshire Trump loses to Biden, Sanders, Harris, Booker and Sanders if Schultz runs. In Texas of all places Trump wins only by 1% against Biden and O'Rourke, and only by 2% against Sanders.

Again, these are polls, so not written in stone, or 100% reliable, but Trump isn't exactly killing it, indeed he's weak pretty much everywhere but in solidly reliable Republican states like South Carolina. Even Texas is sliding towards being a swing state, which could spell doom for the GOP if the Dems ever manage to flip it.

Trump isn't very popular with large parts of the electorate. The election is up for the Democrats to lose. Of course it's still very much possible that they'll lose it by playing Oppression Olympics and bickering over which candidate is the wokest, but the populist Trump model isn't very viable in the long run if it puts Arizona and Texas in play.

Bernie Sanders looks rather likely to win in a general election against Trump. A self-declared socialist is more popular than the main GOP candidate. You would never have expected this to happen only a few years ago.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3904

Post by Keating »

Really? I think Sanders would have best Trump in 2016.

That wasn’t really about how great Trump was, but how awful Clinton was. I agree with the US, I still think he was, despite his flaws, the better choice of those two.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3905

Post by Keating »


Brive1987
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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3906

Post by Brive1987 »

So Kirb, you would say Creepy Uncle Joe has a better than 99% chance of winning?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 99671.html

Where can we go to find consensus?

Ahh.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/co ... 47eac879fb




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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3907

Post by Lsuoma »

Keating wrote: Really? I think Sanders would have best Trump in 2016.

That wasn’t really about how great Trump was, but how awful Clinton was. I agree with the US, I still think he was, despite his flaws, the better choice of those two.
Just another way the corrupt Dem machine fucked the US up the council.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3908

Post by Brive1987 »


Brive1987
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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3909

Post by Brive1987 »

Classic one-two punch.

What are the current odds on Biden even putting up his hand now?

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3910

Post by Old_ones »

Brive1987 wrote: So Kirb, you would say Creepy Uncle Joe has a better than 99% chance of winning?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 99671.html
Low probability events happen. Saying that something has a 1% chance of happening isn't the same thing as saying it is impossible. More importantly, it doesn't mean there was a systematic error in the method that predicted a 99% chance of something happening, or that the next time a similar prediction is made, the more probable outcome won't be observed. Fivethirtyeight predicted that Hillary would win about 70% of the time and Trump would win about 30% of the time. Because a low probability event* occurred, a lot of Trump supporters now seem to think that they are smarter than the polls and predictive methods that leverage them, or that polls don't apply to Trump. Don't be like them - they are misunderstanding statistics.

---------------------
* Not that low - It's no more surprising than winning a dice game where you needed to roll a 5 or 6 on a single die.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3911

Post by Old_ones »

Brive1987 wrote:
The Democrats do not have a credible contender.
LOL. Do you know what year it is, dude? How many people do you think had heard of Barack Obama in 2007? The credibility of these candidates won't be decided for a long time, and there is no credible indicator of how well they are doing this far ahead of the election.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3912

Post by Brive1987 »

Having watched the Deer Hunter, I will concede that low likelihood events are quite likely to happen.

I’m also aware there are many different paths to glory.

http://i.imgur.com/ECjS3rR.jpg

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3913

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »


Brive1987
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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3914

Post by Brive1987 »

Compelling stuff.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3915

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »

Lsuoma wrote:
Keating wrote: Really? I think Sanders would have best Trump in 2016.

That wasn’t really about how great Trump was, but how awful Clinton was. I agree with the US, I still think he was, despite his flaws, the better choice of those two.
Just another way the corrupt Dem machine fucked the US up the council.
Full-on corrupt is a slight exaggeration, but Clinton wielded far more power than she ought to have, especially evident in the conclusion. Sanders was deemed a risk, because of the radical element. Most of the staid stalwarts felt she was a safer choice, and so fucked what could have been a relatively easy election. Both sides felt that they should field the safer choice, but Trump was able to fuck up the Republicans fairly easily, as they were less used to radical differences in their own party.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3916

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »



My guess is "total and complete exoneration" is gonna go back to "witch hunt" again very soon. Republicans seem to be going into panic mode.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3917

Post by Brive1987 »


Brive1987
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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3918

Post by Brive1987 »


Kirbmarc
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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3919

Post by Kirbmarc »

Brive1987 wrote:
Wed Apr 03, 2019 11:38 pm
The really funny part is hat these are likely the same people who mocked the pussy hats.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3920

Post by Keating »

Eh, if you ask me it looks like a (petty) case of holding your enemies to their own standard. I doubt many of the people who’d wear such a shirt believe what Biden is on video doing is necessarily wrong, but Biden has been one of the biggest pushers of “believe all women”. It’s therefore funny to see him hoisted by his own petard.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3921

Post by Brive1987 »

Kirbmarc wrote:
Brive1987 wrote:
Wed Apr 03, 2019 11:38 pm
htt..ps://twitter.com/kbq225/status/1113611949038866432?s=21
The really funny part is hat these are likely the same people who mocked the pussy hats.
No. The really funny part are the hands.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3922

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »



The Republican cover-up king struck again, but this time his antics may only delay, not bury.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3923

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3924

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »



Trump must be fuming. This is why he admires dictators so much, no insubordination in North Korea, Russia or Saudi Arabia.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3925

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3926

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »



And....


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3927

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »



The reason for Barr's hiring should now be obvious. At best he gave Trump some breathing room to try to steer the public opinion and to allow cultists to embrace "total exoneration" lie. His legacy should be interesting.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3928

Post by Old_ones »

Its like I'm surprised, but I'm not that surprised...


If Congress wants that report, they'll probably be able to get it eventually. If they want to get around Barr's obscurantism in the most expedient way, though, they might want to look at pulling Mueller and some of his team in to testify during open sessions. They presumably still have the notes they used to write those summaries, and a working knowledge of what they want the public to know.

Brive1987
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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3929

Post by Brive1987 »

It would be helpful if the chattering classes gave Barr sufficient time to sort the document out to avoid Fourth Amendment violations.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3930

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3931

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3932

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3933

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3934

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »



Nice try, tho.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3935

Post by MarcusAu »

So as 2020 is very clearly approaching as fast as can be expected - and campaign season will be ramping up - is it too soon to do a half time report on number 44? (Or 45 if Grover Cleveland is counted twice).

In particular it might be interesting to compare his record to that of Bush fils.


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3937

Post by Brive1987 »

CaptainFluffyBunny wrote: https..://mobile.twitter.com/thehill/status/1114237791838273536

Nice try, tho.
2016. “Voters in a majority of states of the Union want Trump as President”

It all depends on how you frame the question.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3938

Post by Brive1987 »

“Doctored video”

This the standard liberal MSM buzz term for the day.

They should be shunned as humourless retards.


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3939

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »


free thoughtpolice
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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3940

Post by free thoughtpolice »

She looks like she's getting raped alright. Good call Brive.
No doubt there is a resurgence of puritanism that is huge in the more left of the left of center movement. The #Metoo movement has made innocent actions suspect.
The "I was made uncomfortable crowd" has managed to damage the Dem presidential primaries before they have even begun.
The result is... 4 more years if the Dems can't pull their heads out of their asses.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3941

Post by Kirbmarc »

free thoughtpolice wrote:
She looks like she's getting raped alright. Good call Brive.
No doubt there is a resurgence of puritanism that is huge in the more left of the left of center movement. The #Metoo movement has made innocent actions suspect.
The "I was made uncomfortable crowd" has managed to damage the Dem presidential primaries before they have even begun.
The result is... 4 more years if the Dems can't pull their heads out of their asses.
Funny how the same crowd which was opposed to MeToo excesses now is ready to exploit them against a political rival. One could almost think that principles don't matter and it's OK when they do it. :think:

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3942

Post by Kirbmarc »

Brive1987 wrote: “Doctored video”

This the standard liberal MSM buzz term for the day.

They should be shunned as humourless retards.

Lack of humor goes both ways:
Donald Trump Sues Bill Maher for Calling Him the Son of an Orangutan

Brive1987
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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3943

Post by Brive1987 »

I understand humour is subjective. Despite that, I’d argue the Trump gif is absurdist weirdness. SNL is largely try hard vindictive. IMHO.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3944

Post by Brive1987 »

Kirbmarc wrote:
free thoughtpolice wrote:
Brive1987 wrote: [img...]https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.36 ... c04c0116b6[/img]

https...://youtu.be/IATz8ZVTALo
She looks like she's getting raped alright. Good call Brive.
No doubt there is a resurgence of puritanism that is huge in the more left of the left of center movement. The #Metoo movement has made innocent actions suspect.
The "I was made uncomfortable crowd" has managed to damage the Dem presidential primaries before they have even begun.
The result is... 4 more years if the Dems can't pull their heads out of their asses.
Funny how the same crowd which was opposed to MeToo excesses now is ready to exploit them against a political rival. One could almost think that principles don't matter and it's OK when they do it. :think:
I know you’re not as oblivious as you pretend to be.

http://i.imgur.com/hEzLVua.jpg

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3945

Post by Kirbmarc »

Brive1987 wrote:
Kirbmarc wrote:
free thoughtpolice wrote:
Brive1987 wrote: [img...]https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.36 ... c04c0116b6[/img]

https...://youtu.be/IATz8ZVTALo
She looks like she's getting raped alright. Good call Brive.
No doubt there is a resurgence of puritanism that is huge in the more left of the left of center movement. The #Metoo movement has made innocent actions suspect.
The "I was made uncomfortable crowd" has managed to damage the Dem presidential primaries before they have even begun.
The result is... 4 more years if the Dems can't pull their heads out of their asses.
Funny how the same crowd which was opposed to MeToo excesses now is ready to exploit them against a political rival. One could almost think that principles don't matter and it's OK when they do it. :think:
I know you’re not as oblivious as you pretend to be.

http://i.imgur.com/hEzLVua.jpg
I thought that the ultimate goal was to reduce the SocJus insanity, not to use it as a cudgel against the people we didn't like. Silly me, it's all about schadenfreude and "owning libs".

This is a problem I've seen happening before, for example when Sargon tried to use an overly restrictive code of conduct against Sarkeesian.

It highlights a big difference in goals between those who are seriously concerned about SocJus stupidity and those who instead only want to use it politically, as a way to deflect criticism of their side by pointing out at the "crazy libs".

A bit like those SocJus fans who don't want things to really get better, but instead to simply point out how evil their critics are.

It's at times like this that one should examine one's motivations, and figure out whether they really have a plan or just want to be edgy trolls waiting for the next juicy scandal to promote their brands of how their enemies are crazy. But people probably won't.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3946

Post by Kirbmarc »

Also this is a pattern. The Trump side already used MeToo to get the Dems to get rid of Al Franken on very flimsy bases. This is something that should give everyone pause. Instead it's all fun and games.

So OK, laugh at Biden being under SocJus media trial for rape-touching. Just don't be surprised when President Kamala Harris makes ogle-raping on campuses punishable by campus kangaroo courts.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3947

Post by Brive1987 »

I’m all for a bit of schadenfreude, just like we all were when Benson got driven over and Watson had her merch table nixed.

Speaking of which. One dem has paused in their relentless Trump hate to cry victim .... “it’s hurtful to see ...” :lol: :lol:


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3948

Post by Old_ones »

Kirbmarc wrote:

Lack of humor goes both ways:
Donald Trump Sues Bill Maher for Calling Him the Son of an Orangutan
LMAO! The real collusion is between Democrats and SNL, huh?

:lol:

You can like Trump or not, but his intelligence is not up for debate. He is objectively the dumbest person ever to hold the oval office, and that includes Reagan with Alzheimers.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3949

Post by Old_ones »

Very unfair! Much bad! Should investigate political comedians for mean jokes! Bob! Bob! Where's my DOJ!? Bob! Investigate the bad comedians for being mean to me!

Trump Doge.jpg
(53.23 KiB) Downloaded 194 times

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3950

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »

Old_ones wrote: Very unfair! Much bad! Should investigate political comedians for mean jokes! Bob! Bob! Where's my DOJ!? Bob! Investigate the bad comedians for being mean to me!


Trump Doge.jpg
It's the whole mob boss mentality, the wannabe dictator. The man thought the Constitution was his morning shit.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3951

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3952

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »



Government transparency.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3953

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »



:bjarte: Installing loyalists in branches of government reminds one of...?

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3954

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »


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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3955

Post by Kirbmarc »

CaptainFluffyBunny wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:15 am

He has the bestest people.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3956

Post by CaptainFluffyBunny »



:whistle:

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3957

Post by Brive1987 »

Class A study there ol’ Captain

“We argue that political extremists are less tolerant of different groups and opinions than political moderates”

“We discuss how these psychological features of political extremists increase the likelihood of conflict among groups in society.”

:lol:

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3958

Post by Brive1987 »

I should do a study mapping points of similarity between the Waffen SS and the Grenadier Guards. A study which posits both groups are more militant, violent and disturbed than the typical Army Reserve clerk.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3959

Post by Brive1987 »

Old_ones wrote:
Kirbmarc wrote:

Lack of humor goes both ways:
[url=https..://www.forbes.com/sites/frederickallen/201 ... orangutan/]Donald Trump Sues Bill Maher for Calling Him the Son of an Orangutan[/url]
LMAO! The real collusion is between Democrats and SNL, huh?

:lol:

You can like Trump or not, but his intelligence is not up for debate. He is objectively the dumbest person ever to hold the oval office, and that includes Reagan with Alzheimers.
Lucky then that book-smarts are not a prerequisite for office. I don’t know about collusion but there is a clear partnership between liberal institutions to relentlessly pummel Trump and derail every effort to deliver on his electoral success. Whether this is right or wrong is a different question. It is certainly unprecedented in duration, breadth and toxicity.

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Re: The Trump Dump!

#3960

Post by Kirbmarc »

Brive1987 wrote:
Old_ones wrote:
Kirbmarc wrote:

Lack of humor goes both ways:
[url=https..://www.forbes.com/sites/frederickallen/201 ... orangutan/]Donald Trump Sues Bill Maher for Calling Him the Son of an Orangutan[/url]
LMAO! The real collusion is between Democrats and SNL, huh?

:lol:

You can like Trump or not, but his intelligence is not up for debate. He is objectively the dumbest person ever to hold the oval office, and that includes Reagan with Alzheimers.
Lucky then that book-smarts are not a prerequisite for office. I don’t know about collusion but there is a clear partnership between liberal institutions to relentlessly pummel Trump and derail every effort to deliver on his electoral success. Whether this is right or wrong is a different question. It is certainly unprecedented in duration, breadth and toxicity.
Professional competence is a common metric for judging publicly elected officials. You're more than happy to point out stupid or petulant tweets when they're from AOC, and she's not even a candidate for the office of president. But it's OK if it's Trump.

There is widespread criticism of Trump in the media, largely because Trump himself offers them plenty of things to criticize.

Heavy-handed criticism of the president isn't certainly unprecedented: Dubya was devastated in his media portrayals, Obama was subjected to several conspiracy theories ("born in Kenya" "secret muslim") in right wing media, etc. Criticism is often heavily partisan.

As for the toxicity, see above about Obama. The conspiracy theories were widespread and promoted by Trump himself among others.

At least in the case of Trump there is much more evidence for questionable behavior than in the case of Birtherism or the Secret Muslim ideas.

Even leaving aside the shady international deals of the Trump family, Trump says a lot of stupid or bigoted stuff on social media, is friendly towards some extremist ideas, and has engaged in very controversial policy decisions.

There seems to be a strain of victim complex among Trump fans, that sometimes rivals that of some SocJus fans. "PRESIDENTIAL HARASSMENT", for example, is a good match for Hensley's Twitter PTSD.

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