John D wrote: ↑
Five38 is useless now.
Matt Cavanaugh wrote: ↑
Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:46 am
Silver sold 538 to ESPN, which long ago went full woketard.
Ok... so Matt-the-horse and John-from-the-choir both agree... but I'm gonna keep beating & preaching...
Yesterday-- I posted this screenshot from fivethirtyeight
, which sez "we reserve the right" to omit a certain television network's BADWRONGTHINK from their data sample.
I hovered my cursor over that hotlink, to see WTF fivethirtyeight was talking-about.
The link leads to a Washington Post "analysis" [opinion piece] by columnist Philip Bump.
I read the headline, and the first few sentences... and I assumed five38 & WaPo were talking-about Fox News. I was wrong! :oops:
Nate Silver & fivethirtyeight/ABC News know damn-well that most people won't click that link, or read farther than I-did.
Most readers will assume Fox News is The Entity Which Shall Not Be Named.
Actually... the banned pollster network is OAN. "One America News".
This Op-Ed is from June 2020, which gives us the benefit of hindsight, to fact-check Philip Bump's claims... claims still cited-as-truth by fivethirtyeight in 2022.
By "Philip Bump
June 15, 2020 at 1:17 p.m. UTC
President Trump’s fury was palpable last week after CNN released a poll that showed him trailing in his reelection bid by 14 points. He lashed out on Twitter and took the unusual step of threatening a lawsuit over the result, a move that might be called dubious in the same way that LeBron James might be called athletic. It is — but that’s underselling the point a bit."
Happily for the president, there exists an ecosystem of questionable actors willing to assuage whatever concerns might emerge. His repeated excoriations against “fake news” have made clear to his supporters that any reporting that may be in any way construed as negative should be considered untrue. That puts pressure on outlets such as Fox News that, although certainly more generous to Trump than other outlets, still at times include voices other than the most sycophantic.
20/20 Hindsight Fact-check: Trump did lose not the popular vote by "14 points". Even those who accept the 2020 vote-count as Totally Kosher... put the gap at 4, not 14. Trump was right about the CNN polls' inaccuracy. It was FAKE NEWS.
Last week, we reported that OAN’s core mission of supporting Trump had been hampered by some bad news: a poll of Florida that the company’s chief executive pledged would offer good news for the president instead showed him in a tie with former vice president Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, in the state. This state, remember, is one Trump won four years ago and is also his newly adopted home.
This was not positive news for Trump, despite the network’s initial effort to cast it as such. And because bad news is fake news, it got deep-sixed, the network’s report erased from its website and the video removed from YouTube.
That was not the end of the story, however. While reporting on another story, The Post’s Aaron Blake noticed that the network had created a new report based on the same poll conducted by Gravis Marketing — one that framed the same numbers in a significantly different way.
“In a hypothetical matchup,” host Patrick Hussion reported, “when [voters] in Florida were asked, ‘If you had to choose a candidate right now, for whom would you vote?’ the OAN-Gravis poll shows the president with a 53 to 47 percent lead over former V.P. Joe Biden there in the Sunshine State.”
Trump won Florida by a little more than one point in 2016, so this would reflect a significant improvement.
But Hussion left out a very important bit of context for those numbers: The people being forced to choose a candidate were people who already had indicated that they were undecided in the race.
Ok... so WaPo & five38 were calling Florida as "a tie" or "a little more than one percent" in Trump's favor.
And OAN... using methodology which WaPo&five38 decree to be beyond-the-pale... gave this prediction:
well... which pollster was closer to the bullseye?
20/20 Hindsight Fact-Check:
WaPo offers more "proof" of OAN's lack of integrity:
"The report that was removed from OAN’s website last week made clear (unintentionally) that there were two questions in a row. The first, Question 2, asked whom respondents would support. The second, Question 3, forced those who were undecided to pick a candidate.
Normally, pollsters report the results of questions like Question 2: For whom would you vote if the election were today? That’s why most polls have results in which support for the two candidates doesn’t add up to 100 percent; they include a “not sure/not decided” option."
Uh, okay, got it: a pollster must Explicitly Show the 'undecided' in their results, and parse them from those who Do have an opinion.
Except, now, in 2022, fivethirtyeight's COMPETITOR, Civiqs, DOES include the 'undecided', yet fivethirtyeight fails to meet Their Own standard:
If Trump has a six-point lead among those undecided voters forced to pick a candidate, then Biden must have an advantage among the other group in order for the combined result to be a tie.
? Well... either that's true, or it's not. And... 20/20 Hindsight tells us... it was FALSE. But WaPo builds on that false assumption:
It’s hard to overstate how dishonest this was. Imagine if you asked 20 people what kind of ice cream they wanted. Nine pick vanilla and seven pick chocolate. Four people have no opinion — maybe simply because they like both — but you make them pick. Three say they would take chocolate if they had to choose one or the other, while the fourth picks vanilla.
The original report claimed that vanilla and chocolate were equally popular. The new OAN headline is essentially that people forced to pick an ice cream flavor pick chocolate by a 3-to-1 margin.
Except the gap in Florida between Biden & Trump was NEVER "nine" to "seven" in Biden's favor. That was FAKE NEWS from other polls.
ONLY OAN got it right!
And the crucial undecided voters DID break heavily in Trump's favor... Just As OAN predicted!
WaPo (& 538) dig their own grave deeper:
"OAN’s deceptive presentation of the poll doesn’t end with cherry-picking a result that casts the president in the most favorable light. Hussion also reported on how Floridians view the candidates’ ability to handle the economy.
“Now, when it comes to the economy, the poll also shows Florida voters are decisively more confident in President Trump’s economic policies than the direction Biden would go in if he were elected,” Hussion said. “The president pulls in nearly 50 percent of the respondents compared to Biden’s 44 percent.”
This is ... a five-point difference. This is not only not a demonstration of “decisively more confidence,” it’s almost certainly not even statistically significant. It’s also extremely bad news for Trump if the factor on which he’s predicating his reelection — his ability to keep the economy strong — has him under 50 percent against Biden in a state he needs to win."
Waitaminute. Hang on. Whut? Repeat that bit: "It’s also extremely bad news for Trump if the factor on which he’s predicating his reelection ... has him under 50 percent against Biden in a state he needs to win"
That makes no sense. A 5 point win is a 5 point win. Who cares if Trump beat Biden 49 to 44? Or 51 to 46? Either way... Biden loses by 5. Especially-since OAN showed-their-work... that Trump ALSO led among the undecided WITHIN that 5-point gap.
I'll give them the last word. Here's how WaPo wraps-up their retarded takedown of Trump/OAN:
"This is fake news, folks. It’s invented, cherry-picked and deceptively framed information meant not to convey actual information but, instead, to placate the president and his supporters. It is to news what your mom’s evaluation of your performance in your Little League game was — reassuring but hardly objective. And not only is this report misleading and unethical, it makes very clear why OAN removed the initial report last week: It wasn’t positive enough for Trump. This one is, even if it’s dishonest, so it’s still online.
Yet somehow I am skeptical that Trump will reject OAN as an untrustworthy news source."