You is all a bunch of poofs!

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Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10068

by screwtape » Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:26 am

RNA is not a problem in itself, but it has led to some unscientific science reportage. Rather than finding an antigen that won't cause reactions itself in a vaccine, purifying it and proving it generates an immune response, one can take a short-cut these days if you have the target organism's genome. Slice it up and put a portion into a vaccine (you can probably figure out for yourselves why you don't use the whole genome!) The DNA is injected or otherwise introduced into recipients, and they make the antigen themselves, following which their immune system will mount an immune response. Such DNA vaccines are used for veterinary purposes, and the vaccine against the Zika virus was the first to be used in humans, I think. But take this article Dalhousie research team prepares for clinical trial of COVID-19 vaccine, in which only DNA is mentioned. Since all coronaviruses are single-strand RNA, I don't know if they use the RNA directly in the vaccine, or whether a double strand of DNA is first synthesised from it (which is trivially easy these days). I looked it up and RNA vaccines are a thing, and that's probably what the CBC article is referring to, and probably substituted DNA because they don't know the difference.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10067

by Keating » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:14 pm

I was going off what Bret said here at 7 minutes:

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10066

by free thoughtpolice » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:39 pm

Iwas at the mall today and saw some dumbass with a shopping cart full of mostly toilet paper. I thought that part of thr panic was over by now.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10065

by free thoughtpolice » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:32 pm

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-c ... d-n1150091
Governments need to spend more on vaccines and research.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10064

by mike150160 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:13 pm

polio is an RNA virus and we do have a vaccine

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10063

by mike150160 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:10 pm

Just an RNA virus

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10062

by mike150160 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:10 pm

Not a retrovirus

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10061

by Keating » Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:45 pm

That's why I'm sceptical of a vaccine. It's an RNA retrovirus, and we don't have vaccines for other retroviruses like HIV or the common cold. This would actually be something were it would be great to get ERV's input.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10060

by ThreeFlangedJavis » Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:17 am

screwtape wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:42 am
Isn't it the case that the better we lock down at the first hint of cases, the more susceptible people will remain for the disease to rebound among when the lockdown is relaxed? That's already happened in Hong Kong, and it will be happening in Wuhan too, though I doubt if the Chinese will admit it. If a vaccine is a year away, the only way to get past this is to have sufficient herd immunity that future cases will remain at a low level until all can be immunised. That it to say, something like 80% of us must catch and either survive or succumb to the virus. Will the final death toll be much higher if we do it quickly, or will the number of deaths be much reduced if we drag it out and try to save the sickest with ventilators? And this must be costed in terms of how much damage is done to our economies with either choice. Remember, this seemingly callous policy was the official advice in the UK and in Sweden. The UK has largely caved in to avoiding getting all the deaths at once, though even there schools remain open, ostensibly to allow health care workers to remain on duty while their children are at school. So far, Sweden has stuck to the policy of allowing life to go on as normally as possible, but their politicians admit they will change course if deaths are beyond that which they can tolerate while still having some hope of re-election.

And FT - seems like you're going to have some enforced and unavoidable quiet time at home for a few months whether you like it or not. That might just save your life. Hope you make a full recovery and things out in the world have stabilised by the time you're back on deck.
That's what I thought, until I heard that this virus can re-infect recovered patients, which puts a bit of a dent in the herd immunity theory. My conclusion thus far, speaking as a medical ignoramus, is that we might be forced to quickly re-purpose the most likely looking antiretrovirals and give them to the vulnerable. It 's difficult to see a way out of this at the moment. Here in South Africa we have a lot of people with AIDS and various other compromising diseases like tuberculosis. On top of that you have malnourishment and an already tanked economy. We have just been downrated to junk status by Moodys, the last bond credit rating agency to do so. We have been ordered to stay indoors for 3 weeks with only medical, grocery and banking related journeys allowed. There are so many people, unemployed or otherwise, who survive from day to day and it is unrealistic to expect them to sit inside starving and watching their children starve. I'm expecting violence.

It just occurred to me that AIDS patients on antiretrovirals might be best placed to avoid C19.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10059

by Hunt » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:38 am

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10058

by jg64 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:22 am

Sorry to hear about your accident Ft, glad you’re ok and that The Pit’s back :dance:

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10057

by MarcusAu » Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:06 am

...and Alberto Uderzo has died...

It was not Corvid related for anyone of a mind to be looking for a silver lining.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10056

by Keating » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:09 pm

Driftless wrote: Would it be 5% die and the rest OK? I would bet that the symptoms are a continuum from don't even notice to it kills you quick. There will be a large number of people in the category of "got very sick but just made it" and many of those will have permanent lung and/or heart damage. And many of those will wish they were dead while they have it. That is something to be concerned about. I would like to avoid that if possible.

If you look at South Korea they did much more to contain it early. Even with the wacky church that made the spread much worse they were able to contain the virus without a total lockdown. It is too late now for Europe and North America for this virus, but maybe we can prepare better for the next one by being ready to test and isolate.

Thunderf00t has been putting out some good videos that look at the rate of expansion of cases to try to see where the exponential expansion slows. One of the duh moments for me was understanding that the death rate is not "deaths as of today divided by cases as of today" because the deaths today are of people who contracted the virus a week, 10 days or more ago. It is similar with hospitalizations. That means that the number of deaths and hospitalizations are still going to go up in the US and Europe and will continue to overwhelm the health case system. So doing letting the virus run its course will be a disaster for the health case system.
That's all true, but what a lot of people discount is that the economy is also people's lives. I don't think it matters too much whether you die from Chinese airborne AIDS or from suicide because you lost your job, can't work and all your assets depreciated to nothing due to inflation. Screw too big to fail and bailing out massive corporations, but lives will also be destroyed from the base economic effects of not being able to live. From the scale of it, this may even make the Great Depression look like a picnic.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10055

by Keating » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:04 pm

Pseudomonas wrote: <Tap Tap... > Is this thing back on?

Pauline Hanson. The sad thing is that people vote for her.
She was better before Abbott destroyed her, but, yeah, she is dumb. The really sad thing is that she's still better than the Sarah Hanson-Youngs of the Senate.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10054

by Keating » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:00 pm

Sorry to hear about your trouble FT. You picked a good time to fill yourself full of metal, at least. No metal detectors to go through for a while.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10053

by BoxNDox » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:46 pm

Bhurzum wrote: No idea where the source sits upon the reliability/bias spectrum buuut...
BREAKING: Breakthrough Medical Study For Hyroxychloroquine May Vindicate Trump And Change Everything
https://trendingpolitics.com/breaking-b ... Dl.twitter

Could be a ray of light in these dark times.
This audio program produced by the Journal of the American Medical Association offers a fairly balanced assessment IMO:

https://edhub.ama-assn.org/jn-learning/ ... r/18337225

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10052

by fuzzy » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:57 pm

Batman's soup is a dish best served cold.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10051

by Bhurzum » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:39 pm

No idea where the source sits upon the reliability/bias spectrum buuut...
BREAKING: Breakthrough Medical Study For Hyroxychloroquine May Vindicate Trump And Change Everything
https://trendingpolitics.com/breaking-b ... Dl.twitter

Could be a ray of light in these dark times.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10050

by free thoughtpolice » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:45 pm

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10049

by ConcentratedH2O, OM » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:39 pm

Lsuoma wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:57 am

Hot Potato, Orchestra Stalls
Puck must make amends.

My thighs now contain more titanium than an SR-71 Blackbird, but the breaks were clean and full recovery is expected within some months.

Man, do I like Dilaudid, though - I can really see how people can get hooked on that shit.

Please let me know of any oddities in the Pit. The database was fine, so there should be no lost posts or images. The icons on the reply box are too small for some reason, but they have tool tips if you hover.

Apart from that I don't, personally, see any problems. The extension that put profile boxes on the left doesn't work with the new version, and I'll need to learn a bit about how YAML works with PHP to fix that.

Take care folks, and thanks for coming back - I was afraid that people might just drift away.

We're isolating ourselves on Whidbey Island, which is noce - we have an unobstructed view over Admiralty Inlet (major component of Puget Sound), and the Olympic mountains, with Mt Rainier in the south.

Laters...
Good luck with recovery, ya tit. Good to hear the brakes were clean. You must tell us about the accident one day, when you're ready mentally and legally to do so. Go and spend your days looking at that view for a while, and watch the dilaudid. Opiates hold no fascination for me - amazingly, as I tend to get addicted to all the classic simuli - but as you're susceptible, enjoy them in a controlled way. Let your wife have control of the bottle, assuming she herself has never had problems in that way.

Hope the breeze remains behind your sails.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10048

by MarcusAu » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:04 pm

Lsuoma wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:57 am


Man, do I like Dilaudid...

...

Laters...


You know I had a theory that your work premises were declared an infected zone - and that you had to go back in in a Haz-Mat suit to kick the server in the guts to get the site back up.

Reality seems even less plausible.

In any case - look after yourself - which goes for every one here I suppose...

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10047

by free thoughtpolice » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:40 am

Lsuoma wrote:
Man, do I like Dilaudid, though - I can really see how people can get hooked on that shit.
I broke my leg about 15 years ago, really shattered it, and then had to have it reset after I kicked the wall in my sleep because of the pain. Great fun.
I had Dilaudid aka Hydromorphone for painkiller and didn't particularly like the effects. It wasn't super effective for the pain (maybe I had too small a dose) and I found it made me feel kind of blah. When I quit taking it I had no withdrawals and generally felt in a better mood.
I have tried it since when not in pain and found it not as good a buzz as some good cannabis and a few beers.
Not particul;arly my cup of poison.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10046

by jugheadnaut » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:16 am

Matt Cavanaugh wrote:
Service Dog wrote: Corona Economics

On one hand, there's Peter Schiff-- saying the economy was a bubble/ overdue to pop-- and Corona was just the pin popping-it...
with the $2.2 Trillion Dollar Government Sledgehammer making the pop much-worse:
https://tomwoods.com/ep-1614-peter-schi ... ronavirus/

On the other hand, there's Gene Epstein-- saying the US economy will bounce back, much-like after WW2, when the Keynesians predicted a 1950's Great Depression...due to 11 million young men returning from war & looking for work + a giant decrease in govt spending:
https://art19.com/shows/d0ab5d6f-1972-4 ... st_size=10
All Economics is Voodoo Economics.
Very baffling. I wonder if the '80s era understanding of macroeconomics is going to prove as ill conceived as the '80s understanding of nutrition science. Certainly no one would have predicted a decade long massive monetary easing with vast deficits and much vaster long-term entitlement obligations would be concomitant with a low-inflation, historically stable, albeit relatively low growth economy. And now it will be topped off with a spending program equivalent to about 2 months of GDP, and there's nothing resembling a consensus among economists on the consequences. I really wish there was an economist like Milton Friedman around now to explain the situation. Even if you disagreed with his conclusions, having someone with a first-rate mathematical mind who could also explain economic arguments clearly in non-technical language would be invaluable.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10045

by John D » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:41 am

Hey FT. One weird thing happened to me. I posted a photo jpg as a file attachment.... but the photo displayed turned 90 degrees. I checked the photo in my viewer and it shows that it is oriented correctly. Maybe it is just me.

Also, I share your opinion of Dilaudid. I got it when I had a kidney stone. It turned a 10 out of 10 pain to a 2 out of 10 in a matter of seconds after it entered my blood stream. A wonderful thing.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10044

by fuzzy » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:16 am

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10043

by Lsuoma » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:57 am

Matt Cavanaugh wrote: Thank you, Dear Leader, for reviving the Pit.

So sorry about your accident. Were you about to perform in two plays, and took good luck wishes literally?
Hot Potato, Orchestra Stalls
Puck must make amends.

My thighs now contain more titanium than an SR-71 Blackbird, but the breaks were clean and full recovery is expected within some months.

Man, do I like Dilaudid, though - I can really see how people can get hooked on that shit.

Please let me know of any oddities in the Pit. The database was fine, so there should be no lost posts or images. The icons on the reply box are too small for some reason, but they have tool tips if you hover.

Apart from that I don't, personally, see any problems. The extension that put profile boxes on the left doesn't work with the new version, and I'll need to learn a bit about how YAML works with PHP to fix that.

Take care folks, and thanks for coming back - I was afraid that people might just drift away.

We're isolating ourselves on Whidbey Island, which is noce - we have an unobstructed view over Admiralty Inlet (major component of Puget Sound), and the Olympic mountains, with Mt Rainier in the south.

Laters...

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10042

by John D » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:47 am

Hello all once again. My strange shortness of breath and tight chest ended in one day... so I probably didn't have the COVID. Well.... perhaps I will never know for sure.

FT... please take care!

I feel very lucky right now. I can work from home and still get paid. I got a refund for my "non-refundable" hotel room in D.C. Just hunkering down and working on my new war game rules.

I only regret that I didn't sell out of my stocks three weeks ago. The one time I should have really listened to Styxhexenhammer666.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10041

by Matt Cavanaugh » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:35 am

One benefit of the Pit drought was I stumbled across Mongol Metal:

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10040

by Matt Cavanaugh » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:33 am

Service Dog wrote: Corona Economics

On one hand, there's Peter Schiff-- saying the economy was a bubble/ overdue to pop-- and Corona was just the pin popping-it...
with the $2.2 Trillion Dollar Government Sledgehammer making the pop much-worse:
https://tomwoods.com/ep-1614-peter-schi ... ronavirus/

On the other hand, there's Gene Epstein-- saying the US economy will bounce back, much-like after WW2, when the Keynesians predicted a 1950's Great Depression...due to 11 million young men returning from war & looking for work + a giant decrease in govt spending:
https://art19.com/shows/d0ab5d6f-1972-4 ... st_size=10
All Economics is Voodoo Economics.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10039

by Matt Cavanaugh » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:24 am

Thank you, Dear Leader, for reviving the Pit.

So sorry about your accident. Were you about to perform in two plays, and took good luck wishes literally?

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10038

by free thoughtpolice » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:17 am

Holy shit FT! You chose a bad time to pull a Phil!
Hope your healing goes well, it sounds like it will take some time.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10037

by Service Dog » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:10 am

Corona Economics

On one hand, there's Peter Schiff-- saying the economy was a bubble/ overdue to pop-- and Corona was just the pin popping-it...
with the $2.2 Trillion Dollar Government Sledgehammer making the pop much-worse:
https://tomwoods.com/ep-1614-peter-schi ... ronavirus/

On the other hand, there's Gene Epstein-- saying the US economy will bounce back, much-like after WW2, when the Keynesians predicted a 1950's Great Depression...due to 11 million young men returning from war & looking for work + a giant decrease in govt spending:
https://art19.com/shows/d0ab5d6f-1972-4 ... st_size=10

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10036

by screwtape » Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:42 am

Isn't it the case that the better we lock down at the first hint of cases, the more susceptible people will remain for the disease to rebound among when the lockdown is relaxed? That's already happened in Hong Kong, and it will be happening in Wuhan too, though I doubt if the Chinese will admit it. If a vaccine is a year away, the only way to get past this is to have sufficient herd immunity that future cases will remain at a low level until all can be immunised. That it to say, something like 80% of us must catch and either survive or succumb to the virus. Will the final death toll be much higher if we do it quickly, or will the number of deaths be much reduced if we drag it out and try to save the sickest with ventilators? And this must be costed in terms of how much damage is done to our economies with either choice. Remember, this seemingly callous policy was the official advice in the UK and in Sweden. The UK has largely caved in to avoiding getting all the deaths at once, though even there schools remain open, ostensibly to allow health care workers to remain on duty while their children are at school. So far, Sweden has stuck to the policy of allowing life to go on as normally as possible, but their politicians admit they will change course if deaths are beyond that which they can tolerate while still having some hope of re-election.

And FT - seems like you're going to have some enforced and unavoidable quiet time at home for a few months whether you like it or not. That might just save your life. Hope you make a full recovery and things out in the world have stabilised by the time you're back on deck.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10035

by Driftless » Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:18 am

screwtape wrote:
Lsuoma wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:57 am
I had to do a complete reinstall. Will be adding avatars and images back as I get around to it.
My experiences with phpBB have been less than smooth. Still running 3.2.2 without issues. Anyway...

If anyone can tolerate some semi-serious thought:

These thoughts are in my mind. I may be wrong to have any of them. I don't really have anyone with a wonderfully cool and scientific mindset to whom to present them. As a physician I had all sorts of experience with epidemiology, and the ethical decisions that had to be made about rationing resources. I know next to nothing about economics, and tend to despise it as an unscientific discipline. History has become my main love since I have had the time to spend upon what interests me, rather than upon what must be ingested for work purposes. My concern here is why a disease with such a relatively small mortality rate (I say that knowing what mortality looks like in the front line, and as someone who drags along behind him his own personal bag of bones from failed and inept professional choices) is having such an ahistorical effect on our lives and economies? Why the disproportionate effect compared to the Black Death, the Great Plague, and the Spanish Influenza?

Given that a combination of leukemia and chemo place me in a spot where I haven't the slightest chance of surviving if one of these viruses enter my poor, tired, old, body (even now, I hate that Oxford comma) - I think about things at a larger scale. If no one else has thought about it, we will easily survive this as a species, as societies, and as individual nations. For goodness' sake, we survived a 33% death rate in the mid-1300's, and history mutters one or two things about peasants wanting higher wages. Well, good for Wat Tyler and his mates (briefly, as it turned out at the time). We know, intellectually, about the Great Plague. The sacrifices of Eyam, and suchlike. And history tells us that the Great Fire of London seemed to be a cleansing flame - what a marvelous consolation! Go read Defoe's Journal of a Plague Year if you enjoy that kind of thing. In 1918-1919 we had a 10% death rate from the "Spanish" 'flu, and more people died from it than those killed during the Great War.

So, right now we face a disease with a paltry 1% death rate if we do our best to help those affected. I don't know what the death rate would be if no medical help were offered - no ventilators, no antibiotics for secondary infections, no general supportive measures at all. Just lie in your bed and see if you wake up again, in the old fashioned manner. Shall we double it to 2%, or be awfully pessimistic and set it at, say, 5%? We are told, currently, that 6% require hospitalisation, and 1% die. So the death rate, unmodified by modern medical care cannot be over 6%. No doubt a good few of those we admit would survive at home, so a 5% death rate seems to be the upper limit if no medical care is available. But remember, most will have no symptoms, or minor symptoms, and then recover. Evidently, societies, economies, whichever seems to be the best or most important way of describing ourselves can take this in our stride. Yes, there are casualties, and if I'm to be one of them, allow me the consolation of knowing it will have made little difference to the histories of our era written a thousand years hence.

So, let's get to the meat of this thought. If a relatively primitive society/economy in the mid-1300s could endure a 33% death rate and no one cares or writes much about it within the next couple of centuries, and 102 years ago the world suffered a pandemic influenza that had a death rate of about 10%, and there is no common cultural memory about it all in our awareness, why the heck are we being so damaged by this virus?
Let me be clear: I'm not minimising the risks, and I'm not in any position to do so personally. No, I'll write this from the point of view of a dead man walking. If we do nothing - NOTHING - at all about this virus, around 5% of us will die at most. The rest of us, and I do mean all of the rest of us, will get it and be a bit sick and then get better. Those who die will be the oldest, weakest and most expensive members of our societies. Once that is done, and herd immunity now prevents this virus from being anything other than a rare threat, will we be better off or worse? I know I'm not supposed to ask that, but just think about it. I have not yet managed to be a burden on society, and I may say that my ambition now is to eventually become one! But if this coronavirus takes me and my fellow unworthies away, we will no longer cost our society anything: the balance between aged dependents and young working folk will have been altered in favour of the latter. Economically, that is a plus, no matter how much we might dislike admitting it.
And to get to the very marrow of the matter: given the above, why are our economies being so devastated by such a small death rate among the unproductive members of our societies? I can't believe, under ordinary circumstances, that I would write such an uncaring and fascistic thing - but being one of the expensive and unwanted, I feel I have the right to do so. We could choose to carry on as normal. A very few young people would die, and many of the elderly and chronically ill. Most would have a few days' symptoms and then go back to work.We could compare other sources of mortality than plagues - the world wars took large proportions of our young men, for example. A horrible and hateful thought, but far worse than oldies and infirm like me to be the ones that have to go.
If that's what it would look like to do nothing at all about this virus, why are we living under the gathering stormcloud of economic disaster for all when this is over, if it is ever over? Is this related to the stunning differences in mindset between us oldies and today's youth? Time was when the worst thing you could say of a parent was that they spoiled their child, and then that such a child was spoiled. We don't say those things anymore as all children are spoiled according to older lights. So have expectations of continued smooth and carefree living got to the point where a 5% death rate among the oldest and weakest can bring a whole society to its knees? I'm beginning to suspect this, and do so, once again, without having the expectation of being one of the survivors if such a view were universally adopted.
Good lord, I don't like to write such seemingly uncaring things, but as an amateur historian I try to compare today's circumstances with those that our ancestors overcame. The thing that remains to be understood is how a disease that has a relatively small death rate compared to historical plagues and warfare is having an undue effect on our society and our economy. Is it our unwillingness to accept any casualties? Is it all due to our media presenting facts in the best way to increase their profits? I don't know, and maybe won't be around to find out. I do expect that future historians will enjoy dissecting this (and, no doubt, award many worthless postgrad degrees based upon such dissections!). What do you think about it in this light? I'm not suggesting for a moment that Trump understands any of this and is correct in wanting to loosen restrictions; I don't think he understands much beyond a basic gut instinct for impressing himself upon others, and maybe that serves some purpose in the mysterious movements of democracies.

So the TL;DR of all this burbling is this: would we be better off to accept the 5% casualties among the frail and the elderly but have our societies and economies continue as normal? Or is there a good argument for drawing out the torment as long as possible and saving some weak and elderly lives at enormous cost to the young and vigorous?
Would it be 5% die and the rest OK? I would bet that the symptoms are a continuum from don't even notice to it kills you quick. There will be a large number of people in the category of "got very sick but just made it" and many of those will have permanent lung and/or heart damage. And many of those will wish they were dead while they have it. That is something to be concerned about. I would like to avoid that if possible.

If you look at South Korea they did much more to contain it early. Even with the wacky church that made the spread much worse they were able to contain the virus without a total lockdown. It is too late now for Europe and North America for this virus, but maybe we can prepare better for the next one by being ready to test and isolate.

Thunderf00t has been putting out some good videos that look at the rate of expansion of cases to try to see where the exponential expansion slows. One of the duh moments for me was understanding that the death rate is not "deaths as of today divided by cases as of today" because the deaths today are of people who contracted the virus a week, 10 days or more ago. It is similar with hospitalizations. That means that the number of deaths and hospitalizations are still going to go up in the US and Europe and will continue to overwhelm the health case system. So doing letting the virus run its course will be a disaster for the health case system.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10034

by Bhurzum » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:17 am

Hunt wrote: You can't do it on the right hand?
Ableism.

#Nazi #Racism #Bigot #REEEEE

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10033

by Brive1987 » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:04 am

Look after yourself FT Shit time to end up in hospital

Looking about me. Hard borders no immigration empty roads focus on health and healthy eating general hatred of China families rebonding with simple backyard pleasures zero focus on woke BS young generation driven sullenly from vacuous activity and a general focus on self sufficiency - mental and material

Beautiful - pity ‘bout the virus and all that unemployment though :cdc:

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10032

by Hunt » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:23 am

Bhurzum wrote: Woohoo! The 'pit lives!

Hope everyone is well and keeping their chin up. Also, I hope the avatars return to the left - seeing them on the right makes my brain itch!

Preparing massive shit-post frenzy...wait out.
You can't do it on the right hand?

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10031

by Hunt » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:22 am

zou3gou3 wrote: Lsuoma emailed:
In a BAD car accident. Both femurs broken (multiple places). Tried to
upgrade, but fucked it up, courtesy of Dilaudid.

(PS - I enjoyed the Dilauid).

Will try to repersonalize as I can.

--
Thanks, The Management
Jesus.I hope those bones are healing.
May you be healed and all your bones be good ones.

Srsly, take care.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10030

by Hunt » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:21 am

Screwtape,
You're in good company: Dan Patrick, Dennis Prager and Glenn Beck. :mrgreen:

I second thoughtpolice; the virus might mutate. Also, I believe this is a good dry run for a more serious epidemic. This one has already shown that we're woefully unprepared. My third rebut is a little more speculative: I think in the long run this thing is going to produce something of a shift in society and perhaps the economy as well, a less wasteful economy, more reliance on social technology like teleconferencing (sorry PZ, no more wasteful flights to stupid conferences). Less business travel, yes, for Godsakes less business travel. In the long run there may be a silver lining to this global "time out".

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10029

by zou3gou3 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:15 pm

Lsuoma emailed:
In a BAD car accident. Both femurs broken (multiple places). Tried to
upgrade, but fucked it up, courtesy of Dilaudid.

(PS - I enjoyed the Dilauid).

Will try to repersonalize as I can.

--
Thanks, The Management
Jesus.I hope those bones are healing.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10028

by Bhurzum » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:20 pm

Woohoo! The 'pit lives!

Hope everyone is well and keeping their chin up. Also, I hope the avatars return to the left - seeing them on the right makes my brain itch!

Preparing massive shit-post frenzy...wait out.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10027

by Pitchguest » Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:51 pm

Nevermind. :)

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10026

by Pitchguest » Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:48 pm

Also, yay, the 'Pit's back! :hankey:

But Vivian Taylor's sadly gone the way of the dodo. Unless I can find a backup somewhere.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10025

by Pitchguest » Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:46 pm

MarcusAu wrote: Looks like DPR Jones got in early to avoid the rush...

Wow, that name brought me back. DPR Jones. Along with Aron Ra, Richard Coughlan, Thunderf00t... man. RIP. :obscene-drinkingcheers:

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10024

by free thoughtpolice » Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:58 pm

Screwtape: Good points.
On the other side, there is the risk that allowing the virus to spread gives it more opportunity to mutate into even more dangerous forms as it has a larger population and access to more habitats.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10023

by Lsuoma » Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:23 pm

Avatars back.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10022

by screwtape » Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:32 pm

Lsuoma wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:57 am
I had to do a complete reinstall. Will be adding avatars and images back as I get around to it.
My experiences with phpBB have been less than smooth. Still running 3.2.2 without issues. Anyway...

If anyone can tolerate some semi-serious thought:

These thoughts are in my mind. I may be wrong to have any of them. I don't really have anyone with a wonderfully cool and scientific mindset to whom to present them. As a physician I had all sorts of experience with epidemiology, and the ethical decisions that had to be made about rationing resources. I know next to nothing about economics, and tend to despise it as an unscientific discipline. History has become my main love since I have had the time to spend upon what interests me, rather than upon what must be ingested for work purposes. My concern here is why a disease with such a relatively small mortality rate (I say that knowing what mortality looks like in the front line, and as someone who drags along behind him his own personal bag of bones from failed and inept professional choices) is having such an ahistorical effect on our lives and economies? Why the disproportionate effect compared to the Black Death, the Great Plague, and the Spanish Influenza?

Given that a combination of leukemia and chemo place me in a spot where I haven't the slightest chance of surviving if one of these viruses enter my poor, tired, old, body (even now, I hate that Oxford comma) - I think about things at a larger scale. If no one else has thought about it, we will easily survive this as a species, as societies, and as individual nations. For goodness' sake, we survived a 33% death rate in the mid-1300's, and history mutters one or two things about peasants wanting higher wages. Well, good for Wat Tyler and his mates (briefly, as it turned out at the time). We know, intellectually, about the Great Plague. The sacrifices of Eyam, and suchlike. And history tells us that the Great Fire of London seemed to be a cleansing flame - what a marvelous consolation! Go read Defoe's Journal of a Plague Year if you enjoy that kind of thing. In 1918-1919 we had a 10% death rate from the "Spanish" 'flu, and more people died from it than those killed during the Great War.

So, right now we face a disease with a paltry 1% death rate if we do our best to help those affected. I don't know what the death rate would be if no medical help were offered - no ventilators, no antibiotics for secondary infections, no general supportive measures at all. Just lie in your bed and see if you wake up again, in the old fashioned manner. Shall we double it to 2%, or be awfully pessimistic and set it at, say, 5%? We are told, currently, that 6% require hospitalisation, and 1% die. So the death rate, unmodified by modern medical care cannot be over 6%. No doubt a good few of those we admit would survive at home, so a 5% death rate seems to be the upper limit if no medical care is available. But remember, most will have no symptoms, or minor symptoms, and then recover. Evidently, societies, economies, whichever seems to be the best or most important way of describing ourselves can take this in our stride. Yes, there are casualties, and if I'm to be one of them, allow me the consolation of knowing it will have made little difference to the histories of our era written a thousand years hence.

So, let's get to the meat of this thought. If a relatively primitive society/economy in the mid-1300s could endure a 33% death rate and no one cares or writes much about it within the next couple of centuries, and 102 years ago the world suffered a pandemic influenza that had a death rate of about 10%, and there is no common cultural memory about it all in our awareness, why the heck are we being so damaged by this virus?
Let me be clear: I'm not minimising the risks, and I'm not in any position to do so personally. No, I'll write this from the point of view of a dead man walking. If we do nothing - NOTHING - at all about this virus, around 5% of us will die at most. The rest of us, and I do mean all of the rest of us, will get it and be a bit sick and then get better. Those who die will be the oldest, weakest and most expensive members of our societies. Once that is done, and herd immunity now prevents this virus from being anything other than a rare threat, will we be better off or worse? I know I'm not supposed to ask that, but just think about it. I have not yet managed to be a burden on society, and I may say that my ambition now is to eventually become one! But if this coronavirus takes me and my fellow unworthies away, we will no longer cost our society anything: the balance between aged dependents and young working folk will have been altered in favour of the latter. Economically, that is a plus, no matter how much we might dislike admitting it.
And to get to the very marrow of the matter: given the above, why are our economies being so devastated by such a small death rate among the unproductive members of our societies? I can't believe, under ordinary circumstances, that I would write such an uncaring and fascistic thing - but being one of the expensive and unwanted, I feel I have the right to do so. We could choose to carry on as normal. A very few young people would die, and many of the elderly and chronically ill. Most would have a few days' symptoms and then go back to work.We could compare other sources of mortality than plagues - the world wars took large proportions of our young men, for example. A horrible and hateful thought, but far worse than oldies and infirm like me to be the ones that have to go.
If that's what it would look like to do nothing at all about this virus, why are we living under the gathering stormcloud of economic disaster for all when this is over, if it is ever over? Is this related to the stunning differences in mindset between us oldies and today's youth? Time was when the worst thing you could say of a parent was that they spoiled their child, and then that such a child was spoiled. We don't say those things anymore as all children are spoiled according to older lights. So have expectations of continued smooth and carefree living got to the point where a 5% death rate among the oldest and weakest can bring a whole society to its knees? I'm beginning to suspect this, and do so, once again, without having the expectation of being one of the survivors if such a view were universally adopted.
Good lord, I don't like to write such seemingly uncaring things, but as an amateur historian I try to compare today's circumstances with those that our ancestors overcame. The thing that remains to be understood is how a disease that has a relatively small death rate compared to historical plagues and warfare is having an undue effect on our society and our economy. Is it our unwillingness to accept any casualties? Is it all due to our media presenting facts in the best way to increase their profits? I don't know, and maybe won't be around to find out. I do expect that future historians will enjoy dissecting this (and, no doubt, award many worthless postgrad degrees based upon such dissections!). What do you think about it in this light? I'm not suggesting for a moment that Trump understands any of this and is correct in wanting to loosen restrictions; I don't think he understands much beyond a basic gut instinct for impressing himself upon others, and maybe that serves some purpose in the mysterious movements of democracies.

So the TL;DR of all this burbling is this: would we be better off to accept the 5% casualties among the frail and the elderly but have our societies and economies continue as normal? Or is there a good argument for drawing out the torment as long as possible and saving some weak and elderly lives at enormous cost to the young and vigorous?

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10021

by free thoughtpolice » Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:23 pm

Not a shot of the view I was talking about but is all near to the spot and is a good summary of the scenery.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epZH3Db23Q4

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10020

by free thoughtpolice » Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:13 pm

Back in the good old days I used to backpack and camp in the local mountains. One of our favorite spots was a cliff wall dropping almost vertically 1000 feet int o the river below. I have to say I watched my footing near the edge very carefully.
What a view too. Across the canyon was the aptly named Castlecrag Mountain that had giant blockish Basalt pillars that look like the crenels on castle battlements.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10019

by BoxNDox » Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:23 pm

free thoughtpolice wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:40 am
Moar vertigo, mostly from Vancouver Island.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnjPcBczZ5E
After watching this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INbKYq0G9nU

None of the others seem to have much effect.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10018

by BoxNDox » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:49 am

Driftless wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:50 am
Is Ann Coulter this dumb or does she think her followers are dumb?

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/statu ... 4001406977
Yes.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10017

by free thoughtpolice » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:40 am

Moar vertigo, mostly from Vancouver Island.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnjPcBczZ5E

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10016

by Driftless » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:16 am

Lsuoma wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:57 am
I had to do a complete reinstall. Will be adding avatars and images back as I get around to it.
Thank you! Apparently restarting and powering on and off failed to fix it so you had to use the nuclear option.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10015

by MarcusAu » Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:40 am

Looks like DPR Jones got in early to avoid the rush...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OMWHJ6H8nI

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10014

by katamari Damassi » Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:57 am

Hey! The Pyt's back! Thought maybe FT decided it was time to close shop. I don't visit as often as I used to, but I'd be sad if the pit wasn't there.

I was recently shadow banned at Slate. I don't even know what set them off, as I don't troll there, and I think my posts are fairly innocuous. So I registered as someone new and I'm back on. I've noticed WMD Kitty-the idiot from The Friendly Atheist who repeatedly doxxed Skeptickle-is there now.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10013

by Lsuoma » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:57 am

I had to do a complete reinstall. Will be adding avatars and images back as I get around to it.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10012

by Driftless » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:50 am

Is Ann Coulter this dumb or does she think her followers are dumb?

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/statu ... 4001406977

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10011

by Driftless » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:47 am

Thanks for fixing. I don't see the error messages I was seeing last week.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10010

by screwtape » Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:23 am

Seems I spoke too soon. No images in posts, or as avatars. True for Firefox, Safari, Vivaldi, Brave, Opera and Tor.

Re: You is all a bunch of poofs!

#10009

by Pseudomonas » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:35 am

ConcentratedH2O, OM wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:55 pm
Fuck me, this Aussie politician chick is dumber than dust.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYF08jJi9Hg
<Tap Tap... > Is this thing back on?

Pauline Hanson. The sad thing is that people vote for her. The sadder thing is that she's not even the worst in her party ("Pauline Hanson's One Nation"):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_R ... olitician)

Pseudomonas

PS. Thanks, FT for fixing the Pit!

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